Mike Evans Signed

[CannonFire]

The free agent market will be a lot hotter for Evans than it will be for Mayfield.

Agreed. It's why I've said I don't have a problem with letting Mayfield test the market and locking up Evans quickly.

[Doctor]

It was never going to be quickly, barring Evans ending the year on IR or something. Everyone has been dropping the "we'd love to have Mike back, but you know he has to so whats best for his family" line for awhile now. Brady and others spoke highly of doing the FA circuit at least once, get wined and dined and such. And Mike is at the height of his powers.

Given we'd never hit Evans with a "offer is off the table if you leave" ultimatum, he knows we'll be here waiting for him after his rumspringa.

[kaimaru]

With that said, you wanna talk about rookie QB savings, we land a stud WR again this draft and Palmer takes another step forward, that's two starting WRs on cheap rookie deals.

From 2000 to 2019, there were 77 WR's taken in the first rd. Of those 77, 21 have 100 or more career receptions. I mean, if you're a first round pick and can't reach 100 career receptions, I call that a bust. The hit rate on that is about 27%. Note, some of those 21 are guys like Breshad Perriman, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (Chargers), Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd, Darrius Heyward-Bey, & Robert Meachem (there's more like this), I would consider them busts. So, out of those 12, let's split the difference and say 6 were busts, making the "hit rate", 15 out off 77. That's a 19.5% success rate.

Here's a link that says:
"Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round QB picks per year. So according to our assessment, only 0.7 of those go on to become home-run picks. Meanwhile, at least 1.3 per year prove to be clear misses". So, 0.7 out of 3, comes to a 23.3% success rate.

Looks like the odds suggest that we keep Evans and draft a QB, not the other way around.

They expected rookies to have 100 receptions? I think 60+ is more reasonable. Using that since we have 21 total drafted since , 13 good, 8 bad, 61.9% success rate and a good half of those picked are studs. Maybe we have just gotten better at evaluating WRs worthy of 1st round picks?

100/60+
Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison

Failed
Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Quentin Johnston

[CannonFire]

From 2000 to 2019, there were 77 WR's taken in the first rd. Of those 77, 21 have 100 or more career receptions. I mean, if you're a first round pick and can't reach 100 career receptions, I call that a bust. The hit rate on that is about 27%. Note, some of those 21 are guys like Breshad Perriman, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (Chargers), Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd, Darrius Heyward-Bey, & Robert Meachem (there's more like this), I would consider them busts. So, out of those 12, let's split the difference and say 6 were busts, making the "hit rate", 15 out off 77. That's a 19.5% success rate.

Here's a link that says:
"Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round QB picks per year. So according to our assessment, only 0.7 of those go on to become home-run picks. Meanwhile, at least 1.3 per year prove to be clear misses". So, 0.7 out of 3, comes to a 23.3% success rate.

Looks like the odds suggest that we keep Evans and draft a QB, not the other way around.

They expected rookies to have 100 receptions? I think 60+ is more reasonable. Using that since we have 21 total drafted since , 13 good, 8 bad, 61.9% success rate and a good half of those picked are studs. Maybe we have just gotten better at evaluating WRs worthy of 1st round picks?

100/60+
Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison

Failed
Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Quentin Johnston

No, 100 career receptions.

[Grahamburn]

They expected rookies to have 100 receptions? I think 60+ is more reasonable. Using that since we have 21 total drafted since , 13 good, 8 bad, 61.9% success rate and a good half of those picked are studs. Maybe we have just gotten better at evaluating WRs worthy of 1st round picks?

100/60+
Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison

Failed
Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Quentin Johnston

No, 100 career receptions.

To be fair a lot of these “failed” players are still pretty early into their careers.

[CannonFire]

No, 100 career receptions.

To be fair a lot of these “failed” players are still pretty early into their careers.

They've all been in the league since 2019!! If you haven't totaled 100 career receptions in 5 seasons... you're a bust. I don't see how you could argue differently. That's less than 20 receptions a year. LOL

Or do you mean his list?

To note, the point of my original post was to say that if we have to choose between keeping a QB instead of a WR or vice versa, odds show it's better to keep the WR (especially since the QB has a bigger impact). I think in his list, all of the "failed" WR's, are busts... short term or not. Also, we're talking about Mike Evans too... a 75/1200/12 type player. In his list, the ONLY guys who fit that bill are Chase, Jefferson, Waddle, and Lamb... which is 4 out of 21 (that's 19% by the way). Wait, I'll give you DeVonta Smith. I think that dude is purty darn good... so 5 out of 21, so we're at 23.8% hit rate putting the WR's at a smidge over QBs who are at 23.3% hit rate. If we're talking a "push", I'm keeping the WR and drafting a QB.

Jeudy's been in the league 4 years and still doesn't even have 12 TD's yet. LOL He's a nice WR, he's not a difference maker like Evans.

[kaimaru]

To be fair a lot of these “failed” players are still pretty early into their careers.

They've all been in the league since 2019!! If you haven't totaled 100 career receptions in 5 seasons... you're a bust. I don't see how you could argue differently. That's less than 20 receptions a year. LOL

Look at the date of the WR REPORT. It was April 2020 NOT 2024 ffs

[CannonFire]

They've all been in the league since 2019!! If you haven't totaled 100 career receptions in 5 seasons... you're a bust. I don't see how you could argue differently. That's less than 20 receptions a year. LOL

Look at the date of the WR REPORT. It was April 2020 NOT 2024 ffs

Yeah, I know, I said that in my initial post.

It's why their article said that only 19 players had 100 career receptions and I said 21... it's because I looked at the guys still in the league and updated the count if I saw they eclipsed 100.

[kaimaru]

Look at the date of the WR REPORT. It was April 2020 NOT 2024 ffs

Yeah, I know, I said that in my initial post.

It's why their article said that only 19 players had 100 career receptions and I said 21... it's because I looked at the guys still in the league and updated the count if I saw they eclipsed 100.

How did that dismiss my post and my perception that WR picking may be getting better?

[Phantom]

The #Bucs are hard at work on bring back star WR Mike Evans in a “major way”, per @JFowlerESPN
Evans “wants to retire a Buccaneer,” and Tampa Bay has would like the same for the future Hall of Famer

CBS Sports is reporting that the Bucs and Evans are currently working out a deal to keep him from becoming a FA

[Obsolete]

The #Bucs are hard at work on bring back star WR Mike Evans in a “major way”, per @JFowlerESPN
Evans “wants to retire a Buccaneer,” and Tampa Bay has would like the same for the future Hall of Famer

CBS Sports is reporting that the Bucs and Evans are currently working out a deal to keep him from becoming a FA

Best news ive heard all day!

[Babeinbucland]

Yay! And this makes me feel a whole lot better about Baker then as well!

[Phantom]

Hope they get it done this week. If so, I'll buy Evans jersey. I don't normally buy but Brady home, away, pewter and creamsicles jersey.

[Grahamburn]

Hope they get it done this week. If so, I'll buy Evans jersey. I don't normally buy but Brady home, away, pewter and creamsicles jersey.

He’s been here 10 years.

[Phantom]

Hope they get it done this week. If so, I'll buy Evans jersey. I don't normally buy but Brady home, away, pewter and creamsicles jersey.

He’s been here 10 years.

NO SHIT SHERLOCK! I don't buy jersey til Tom Brady

That reminds me, I need to buy an updated Bics polo shirt for my collection if they add any this year. Last year polo shirt was the shit.

[Grahamburn]

He’s been here 10 years.

NO SHIT SHERLOCK! I don't buy jersey til Tom Brady

Kewl?

[Buc2]

NO SHIT SHERLOCK! I don't buy jersey til Tom Brady

Kewl?

He's such an angry old man.

[Phantom]

Have we signed Mike Evans yet?

[13F11B]

Have we signed Mike Evans yet?

I am starting to think that this will not happen. I think Evans and Mayfield will both be gone. Once they failed to get things done before last Monday I think the writing was on the wall. Hell, they would have saved 12+ million in cap space to get things done before then, but failed. Now, they have 12+ million less to spend... how do you close the gap with less money available?

[Snake]

Just add more VOID years baby!!

[Bootz]

Just add more VOID years baby!!

Please and thank you. Then Doc can tell us about how we've paid off 80% of the credit card despite the interest increasing more and more.

[BuccaNOLEer]

Just add more VOID years baby!!

Please and thank you. Then Doc can tell us about how we've paid off 80% of the credit card despite the interest increasing more and more.

Like I said before. Evans is now 30 years old. He can still play at a high level but for how long? That's why this contract is one that you frontload, so in the case that he does decline, you can let him go a couple years later with a minimal cap hit.

Also, seeing as he is now 30, it's time to start grooming his replacement. Johnny Wilson from FSU would be perfect as he's got similar height and wingspan. Wilson can be had in the third round.

[Snake]

The time value of money is a real thing.

[Doctor]

Have we signed Mike Evans yet?

I am starting to think that this will not happen. I think Evans and Mayfield will both be gone. Once they failed to get things done before last Monday I think the writing was on the wall. Hell, they would have saved 12+ million in cap space to get things done before then, but failed. Now, they have 12+ million less to spend... how do you close the gap with less money available?

Yes and no.

All it did was commit us to $12M THIS year unmoveable. Since its likely he would've counted for more than that against the cap anyways its pretty moot. We only would've "saved" $12M if we backloaded the deal heavy.

All we lost with that soft deadline was the ability to do one of those "structured so he only counts $2M against the cap this year" type moves which wasn't likely to be the play anyway.

[Cheb]

Have we signed Mike Evans yet?

I am starting to think that this will not happen. I think Evans and Mayfield will both be gone. Once they failed to get things done before last Monday I think the writing was on the wall. Hell, they would have saved 12+ million in cap space to get things done before then, but failed. Now, they have 12+ million less to spend... how do you close the gap with less money available?

We can print 67 million dollars by restructuring Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, Carlton Davis, Tristan Wirfs, and Jamel Dean. Add that to the $43 million in cap space we have currently and the Bucs would shoot up to $110 million in cap space, good for most in the league by $21 million.

It CAN be done. WILL it be done is another matter.

[Snake]

Sounds like buy now, pay later.

[Bootz]

I am starting to think that this will not happen. I think Evans and Mayfield will both be gone. Once they failed to get things done before last Monday I think the writing was on the wall. Hell, they would have saved 12+ million in cap space to get things done before then, but failed. Now, they have 12+ million less to spend... how do you close the gap with less money available?

We can print 67 million dollars by restructuring Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, Carlton Davis, Tristan Wirfs, and Jamel Dean. Add that to the $43 million in cap space we have currently and the Bucs would shoot up to $110 million in cap space, good for most in the league by $21 million.

It CAN be done. WILL it be done is another matter.

Should it be done is the bigger matter. That's overkill to the fullest. You're not "restructuring" Chris Godwin, Carlton Davis or Tristin Wirfs. You're extending them as they only have 1 year left on their deals. And of those 3 there's only 1 I'd say should be extended without question.

The Bucs have gone from 1 extreme to another in a relatively short time period. We use to never even give out signing bonuses, let alone voidable contracts. Now we've been the poster children for voidable deals over the past 3 years or so. Had the largest dead cap total in league history. Next year is already looking bad with Godwin & Shaq account for $30mil+ in dead money despite not being under contract.

Licht needs to reign it in. This pandora's box he's opened up will turn sour sooner than later if he doesn't get it under control. Not do away with voidable years all together. But be a lot less aggressive.

[kaimaru]

Please and thank you. Then Doc can tell us about how we've paid off 80% of the credit card despite the interest increasing more and more.

Like I said before. Evans is now 30 years old. He can still play at a high level but for how long? That's why this contract is one that you frontload, so in the case that he does decline, you can let him go a couple years later with a minimal cap hit.

Also, seeing as he is now 30, it's time to start grooming his replacement. Johnny Wilson from FSU would be perfect as he's got similar height and wingspan. Wilson can be had in the third round.

Perfect since he is known for his dropped passes!

[Bootz]

Please and thank you. Then Doc can tell us about how we've paid off 80% of the credit card despite the interest increasing more and more.

Like I said before. Evans is now 30 years old. He can still play at a high level but for how long? That's why this contract is one that you frontload, so in the case that he does decline, you can let him go a couple years later with a minimal cap hit.

Also, seeing as he is now 30, it's time to start grooming his replacement. Johnny Wilson from FSU would be perfect as he's got similar height and wingspan. Wilson can be had in the third round.

Why is it 30 and not say 28 or 32 or 33? 30 is just the blanket age given for when players fall off the cliff. Show me on the field. By that logic you keep Devin White over Lava David and Russell Gage over Mike Evans because other formers are under 30.

[Grahamburn]

Like I said before. Evans is now 30 years old. He can still play at a high level but for how long? That's why this contract is one that you frontload, so in the case that he does decline, you can let him go a couple years later with a minimal cap hit.

Also, seeing as he is now 30, it's time to start grooming his replacement. Johnny Wilson from FSU would be perfect as he's got similar height and wingspan. Wilson can be had in the third round.

Perfect since he is known for his dropped passes!

I assume this is a little dig at Evans? The drops can be frustrating, but it’s not like he leads the league.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?cat ... Order=desc

[kaimaru]

Perfect since he is known for his dropped passes!

I assume this is a little dig at Evans? The drops can be frustrating, but it’s not like he leads the league.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?cat ... Order=desc

We are replacing Evans who a lot of people complain about dropped balls with someone who dropped a lot more passes in college

Wide Receiver Johnny Wilson Struggles to Catch the Ball
September 2, 2023 | Daniel Kelly | Articles
Reading Time: 3 minutes
Florida State University (FSU) receiver Johnny Wilson sure does look the part.

He’s got dominant size at 6-foot-7 and he just about everything really well.

Just about.

The one thing he has struggled with the most is the one thing he has to do, which is catching the ball.

2020: (ASU) 6 out of 13 (46% catch rate)

2021: (ASU) 12 out of 24 (50% catch rate)

2022: (FSU) 43 out of 80 (54% catch rate)

Add it all together and it comes out to 61 out of 117 targets for a 52% college career catch rate.

That’s about half. That’s a problem.

https://firstroundmock.com/2023/09/wide ... -the-ball/

[Snake]

How is he at getting open? That’s fairly important

[Cheb]

I assume this is a little dig at Evans? The drops can be frustrating, but it’s not like he leads the league.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?cat ... Order=desc

We are replacing Evans who a lot of people complain about dropped balls with someone who dropped a lot more passes in college

Wide Receiver Johnny Wilson Struggles to Catch the Ball
September 2, 2023 | Daniel Kelly | Articles
Reading Time: 3 minutes
Florida State University (FSU) receiver Johnny Wilson sure does look the part.

He’s got dominant size at 6-foot-7 and he just about everything really well.

Just about.

The one thing he has struggled with the most is the one thing he has to do, which is catching the ball.

2020: (ASU) 6 out of 13 (46% catch rate)

2021: (ASU) 12 out of 24 (50% catch rate)

2022: (FSU) 43 out of 80 (54% catch rate)

Add it all together and it comes out to 61 out of 117 targets for a 52% college career catch rate.

That’s about half. That’s a problem.

https://firstroundmock.com/2023/09/wide ... -the-ball/

The article you quoted doesn't include this year's numbers, where Wilson caught 41 balls out of 71 targets for a catch rate of 57.7%, so round it up to 58%.

Guess what Mike Evans catch rate was this last season.

58%.

A funny coincidence I'm sure, but more importantly to those worried about his catch rate, it has improved every year of Wilson's college career, so he seems to be trending well in that regard. What worries me more is TD production. This guy Wilson should be a red zone machine at his height and yet he wasn't, and while I understand that Coleman is a first round prospect for a reason and was taking a lot of those redzone balls from him, 2 TDs don't cut mustard for me.

[Noles1724]

We are replacing Evans who a lot of people complain about dropped balls with someone who dropped a lot more passes in college



https://firstroundmock.com/2023/09/wide ... -the-ball/

The article you quoted doesn't include this year's numbers, where Wilson caught 41 balls out of 71 targets for a catch rate of 57.7%, so round it up to 58%.

Guess what Mike Evans catch rate was this last season.

58%.

A funny coincidence I'm sure, but more importantly to those worried about his catch rate, it has improved every year of Wilson's college career, so he seems to be trending well in that regard. What worries me more is TD production. This guy Wilson should be a red zone machine at his height and yet he wasn't, and while I understand that Coleman is a first round prospect for a reason and was taking a lot of those redzone balls from him, 2 TDs don't cut mustard for me.

Johnny Wilson will be a complete bust. he will get man-handled in every press situation, his route running is basic AF, and his hands are questionable to say the least.

[Phantom]

Licht, let's get it done.