Hey Jason, sign Russell Wilson

[acmillis]

A lot of the pressure Baker faced was caused by him holding the ball way too long, escaping clean pockets unnecessarily, not going through progressions quickly enough. That said, the OL wasn't perfect in pass pro. I also think the playcalling contributed to a lot of those issues. And we don't have a RB who can block or pick up a blitz worth a damn.

Adn hat's been his problem for 6 years...but you want to pay him atleast 40+M/year. Make it make sense.

[Bootz]

A lot of the pressure Baker faced was caused by him holding the ball way too long, escaping clean pockets unnecessarily, not going through progressions quickly enough. That said, the OL wasn't perfect in pass pro. I also think the playcalling contributed to a lot of those issues. And we don't have a RB who can block or pick up a blitz worth a damn.

Adn hat's been his problem for 6 years...but you want to pay him atleast 40+M/year. Make it make sense.

Again I never said I wanted to. I've long said I'd prefer to move on. I have no say though so I'm just stating what we will likely do.

[Snake]

Some interesting fan takes on Russ...

If you have an offense that you want to look a certain way, Russell Wilson simply can not operate it. RW is going to throw bombs, and they’ll hit sometimes. But the middle of the field is essentially a zero, and that makes you incredibly predictable.

The basic passing stats never tell the tale with Russ. Never really have. Instead, look at drive, sack, and penalty stats. How many 3 and outs? How many delay of games? How many holding calls generated because he’s holding the ball and changed directions?

Nothing is on time, nothing is as designed, and NOTHING is easy.

Its literally 2021 Carson Wentz. Numbers dont tell the full story.

Wilson was fairly good when allowed to run the offense in the 2 minute drill. He lead the league in 4th quarter comebacks+game winning drives, a lot of his TDs coming here.

When he had to play within the structure of the offense and move the chains, he was dreadful.

That’s not a recipe for success, but he still had a fine year, enough to start next year. Him and Payton just aren’t going to gel together and Russ is paid like a top 5 QB when he’s top 20 really.

A lot of the TDs came from getting short fields from an unsustainable amount of turnovers in a stretch, and even then they left points on the board.

When actually asked to generate offense and move the ball he couldn’t do it

TD:INT is just a bad measure, better ones like EPA/play had him as the 19th best QB in the league, DVOA 24th (min 200 attempts)

The defense gave him loads of half to short fields to work with. Pair that with the fact that the team had very few rushing touchdowns says what I need to know. Rus was able to score in the red zone, but struggled getting us there. I don’t care if you throw for 3 TDs in a game; if you are passing for 150yds, then you aren’t moving the ball, especially with a mid level run game.

[Onthebrink]

I think that Baker had to escape clean pockets to create passing lanes because he is Todd Shaw. Anyone gets that reference w/o Google is a music genius.

[Buc2]

Hey, Jason. Don't do this.

[Grahamburn]

Hey, Jason. Don't do this.

I doubt it has even been brought up.

[BucsNBills]

Hey, Jason. Don't do this.

I doubt it has even been brought up.

I agree, this scenario hasn't even registered with Licht because he is in fact not retarded. The Trash and Aguayo picks not withstanding...

[Sdbucs]

Top 8 (bad) in this metric every one of those years, no trend in either direction

Other qbs that led this category in 2023 include Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell.

Doesn't pass my eye test. Baker avoided tons of pressure last year.

Guy, what?

The amount of sacks that Baker took last year trying to break free and scramble was mind boggling.

Probably the #1 problem I had with him.

This metric shows which QBs are taking sacks when pressured, vs avoiding pressure or getting the ball away.

Russ and Baker both hold the ball and get sacked more often than most QBs

[Snake]

Avoidable INTs and running into sacks. This has defined Baker’s career historically.

[Grahamburn]

Doesn't pass my eye test. Baker avoided tons of pressure last year.

Guy, what?

The amount of sacks that Baker took last year trying to break free and scramble was mind boggling.

Probably the #1 problem I had with him.

This metric shows which QBs are taking sacks when pressured, vs avoiding pressure or getting the ball away.

Russ and Baker both hold the ball and get sacked more often than most QBs

Just saying. Seemed like there were quite a few plays where the defense had him dead to rights and he got out of it.

Thank you for posting the metrics.

[BuccaNOLEer]

Guy, what?

The amount of sacks that Baker took last year trying to break free and scramble was mind boggling.

Probably the #1 problem I had with him.

This metric shows which QBs are taking sacks when pressured, vs avoiding pressure or getting the ball away.

Russ and Baker both hold the ball and get sacked more often than most QBs

Just saying. Seemed like there were quite a few plays where the defense had him dead to rights and he got out of it.

Thank you for posting the metrics.

Being a little guy, it's easy for him to do that.

[GreatTimes]

I think that Baker had to escape clean pockets to create passing lanes because he is Todd Shaw. Anyone gets that reference w/o Google is a music genius.

Did you mean Tommy Shaw of Styx?

[Buccabeer]

My issue with it would be that he seems to be a Locker Room problem. Baker was an awesome teammate. I'm not a huge fan of either, but just based on keeping the comradery going, I'd go Baker......

[Jonny]

Baker has several deficiencies, but he gives a shot at an explosive offense. Wilson has been a passive, conservative QB reluctant to fit passes in tight windows for at least two seasons now. Still a worthwhile discussion considering he could be had for a bag of russet potatoes.

[BucsNBills]

[Terry Tate]

Baker has several deficiencies, but he gives a shot at an explosive offense. Wilson has been a passive, conservative QB reluctant to fit passes in tight windows for at least two seasons now. Still a worthwhile discussion considering he could be had for a bag of russet potatoes.

Most QB's have some deficiencies. Two guys who were top 5 all time, Peyton and Tom, routinely got roasted for being about as mobile as Stonehenge. The trick is to build your offense in a way that minimizes those deficiencies and maximizes what they can do. With guys like Peyton and Tom, that's fairly easy. With mere mortals, it's trickier.

In the case of Russ, it explains why Seattle won with him. He short and tends to hold the ball too long but can throw a killer deep ball and is elite, Super Bowl notwithstanding, in the Red Zone. On a team like Prime Seattle, with an elite RB and all time great defense, he was perfect. Marshawn kept the chains moving and let Russ just take shots and cash in red zone opportunities.

Baker is a little like Russ. He's another short guy with a lively arm and decent mobility. If we sign him, we need to shore up the middle of the Oline and strengthen the running game. If we can run it better and take some of the piss out of the pass rush, Baker will be fine. We also need that interior blocking to step up to give Baker better throwing lanes. If the opposing DT's can push the pocket and get hands up, that makes life real hard for the smaller QB.

[Navybuc]

I'd personally say "no" to both and try to move up to draft J.J. McCarthy, but I know that wish isn't coming true.

[kaimaru]

The read is good, I highlighted only things about Russ. Some of the Peyton stuff made me chuckle, which is something as I hate cat anus lips

The Decline and Fall of Russell Wilson
Having defeated Wilson in a duel for the heart and soul of the Denver Broncos, Sean Payton has carte blanche to rebuild the roster in his image, plus lots of built-in excuses if it doesn't work out.
MIKE TANIER
MAR 4, 2024
NFL decision makers are believers in both the Great Man Theory of history and the quick fix. They all think there’s a plug ‘n’ play Albert Einstein or Alexander the Great out there waiting to solve all of their problems in exchange for a dump truck full of dough. When one Great Man fails, the only real solution is to replace him with an even greater Great Man.

The Broncos finalized their latest savior swap on Monday. Russell Wilson is out after two costly, bewildering years. Sean Payton is emphatically still in. Anyone who has ever seen an individual or company zigzag between business models, fad diets or pop philosophies can predict what’s next. Things may not get worse before they get better in Denver, but they are certain to get weirder.

Wilson started his career with the Seattle Seahawks as an outstanding young quarterback. He grew into a very good veteran quarterback. The next stage in that development is almost always “overpaid mediocre aging quarterback,” perhaps with the “flakier than a fresh croissant” mutation that has become less recessive in recent years.

The Seahawks, who watched Wilson grow flightier each year, knew what was happening. After a 7-10 season in 2021, they were open to any viable exit strategy.

The Broncos, meanwhile, spent several post-Peyton Manning years waiting for regional demigod John Elway to find a quarterback wrought in his divine image (Paxton Lynch), or at least some bronze statue (Joe Flacco, Case Keenum) tall and impressive enough to whip the team’s defense into a playoff-caliber frenzy. When those efforts failed, Elway retreated to Asgard to escape the Bowlen family ownership struggle, an ordeal which played out like a full season of Arrested Development, but with all the humor replaced by callous greed and rage. (In other words, like the fifth season of Arrested Development). The eventual purchasers of the team, the Walton-Penner Ownership Group, lacked an NFL-style Great Man; CEO Greg Penner is just a son-in-law in a suit.

The Broncos originally coveted Aaron Rodgers, not Wilson, so they hired Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their head coach/bloodworm. Hackett operated in Green Bay as a cross between Rodgers’ therapy pet and C3PO-like protocol droid who could diplomatically translate Rodgers’ angry Jabba grunts into polite English and vice versa. Rodgers did not take the bait, so the Broncos traded two first-round picks, a second-rounder and several serviceable veterans to the Seahawks for Wilson and change, signing Wilson for five years and a reported $245 million to lubricate the deal.

Wilson arrived with demands and quirks which came in three flavors: mild (lots of starting quarterbacks have their own office), hot-’n’-spicy (Wilson, like Tom Brady, wanted his personal coach on premises) and Ghost Pepper-’n’-Plutonium (visualization exercises, invisible high-fives, etc).

Wilson lacked the toxic overprotective boyfriend relationship Rodgers still shares with Hackett, who for his part arrived in Denver with the disciplinary chops of a substitute teacher who just ripped his pants. Hackett’s game plans were Rodgers-formulated mommy meals that Wilson found distasteful. So Wilson did whatever he wanted, on the field and off, and the loopy behavior that the Seahawks kept private for years became a national talking point.

The Broncos went 5-12. Hackett did not survive the 2022 season as a head coach. Wilson’s reputation did not fare so well, either.

Wilson was too expensive and weird to trade but too ineffective, expensive and weird to build a roster around. The Broncos’ solution, naturally, was to swallow the spider to catch the fly.

Sean Payton was undeniably successful as the head coach of the New Orleans Saints. His success was also intertwined with that of Drew Brees, which is not unusual: lots of great coaches are tied to great quarterbacks. What’s odd is how innocuous and semi-anonymous Payton’s public persona remained despite 15 years at the helm of one of the NFL’s most successful teams. New Orleans is a tiny media market, and Brees was an affable fellow, so Brees became the public face of the Saints.

Payton was dictatorial with the local press, groused about officiating like the angriest fan at the bar and allowed Gregg Williams to run the defense as if he were a Spider-Man villain, but even the BountyGate suspension did not stick to Payton’s reputation. Most fans consider Bill Belichick a joyless grouch, Mike McCarthy a credit-grabbing middle manager and Pete Carroll a Pop Warner coach/grandpa who drinks too much coffee. Payton left New Orleans as a cipher with a Super Bowl ring.

Payton coached one season without Brees in New Orleans and promptly nope’d out, something Belichick would have been shrewd to do in New England. He spent one year on a customary legendary-coach sabbatical, hiding from the public eye while his marketability compounded interest. A truly Great Man, as fans of Rambo know, must be coaxed from meditative seclusion to resume his quest.

The Broncos lured the not-very-reluctant Payton out of not-really-retirement for $18 million per year. George Paton remained the nominal general manager, and he probably gets to select seventh-round picks, but Payton was given the sheriff’s star and a mandate to run the Wilson Gang out of town.

Have you ever seen Clint Eastwood’s High Plains Drifter? Eastwood’s Stranger, who holds a deeper grudge against the townspeople he is hired to save than the outlaws he’s supposed to stop, begins f**king with just about everyone around him to put them in their place. Payton began acting like Eastwood’s Stranger almost immediately, more as a way of establishing dominance than enacting karmic frontier justice.

Payton filled his coaching staff with cronies, plus former Broncos head coach Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator in an I don’t care what anyone thinks of this exercise of power. He wasn’t shy about filling the bottom of the roster with former Saints. He gave rambling, almost stream-of-consciousness press conferences, sounding like an old movie director on the press junket who doesn’t care if you buy a ticket to see his five-hour masterpiece about dirt farmers or not.

At the start of training camp last year, Payton ripped Hackett in an interview that was custom-tailored to go viral, surely knowing that stray fire would ricochet back at Wilson; Rodgers and the Jets, on cue, poured gasoline on the story by posing and flexing in defense of Rodgers’ favorite comfort pillow.

Payton then installed a Brees-worthy scheme and watched Wilson chafe against it. The Broncos started the 2023 season 1-5, but Payton remained patient. Wilson rallied to lead some midseason upsets, and Payton could not bench a relatively hot Wilson, nor could he risk giving Jarrett Stidham too many innings of long relief.

Stories of the injury clause in Wilson’s contract began circulating in October, preparing fans for the likelihood that Wilson would get benched the moment the Broncos were out of playoff contention. Such stories often circulate with the help of some priming from within the organization. The Broncos’ hotstreak cooled, and Payton’s displeasure became more public.

Payton finally tired of waiting for teams like the Colts and Jaguars to figure their s**t out and clinch playoff berths. He yanked Wilson for Stidham before Week 17, with the Broncos still mathematically alive, claiming he was looking for a “spark.” The move tipped Payton’s hand, as if there was any doubt. He had spent the season waiting for an excuse to bench Wilson. When a good one failed to materialize at the right time, he made one up.

Wilson fumed in the carefully-modulated Russ-speak that tricked outsiders into thinking he was totally normal when he was in Seattle. But if Wilson retained a shred of self awareness, he must have known not only that his Broncos career was over the moment Payton made the switch, but his future as an NFL starter was in jeopardy.

Which brings us to Monday. As I wrote for FTN Network last week, Payton stopped just short of hiring a skywriter to scrawl “Russ Sucks and Imma Cut Him” across the skies above Indianapolis during his scouting combine press conference. Everyone knew Wilson’s release was coming soon.

No one can predict the next stage of Wilson’s journey: he’s no longer effective enough to be a starter and too much of a wackadoodle to serve as a mentor or backup. He’s likely to sit out free agency and wait to see if a starting opportunity comes in the form of a training camp injury.

As for the Broncos, Payton now enjoys both unchecked power and enough excuses to keep him unaccountable for the team’s fortunes for several years. Wilson’s $85-million cap hit over two years alone will keep expectations low, and the Broncos are in no position to acquire any surefire quarterback solutions. Everything bad that happens for the foreseeable future can be blamed on Wilson.

We’re about to learn whether Payton is committed to serious franchise building or sees the Broncos as a lucrative vanity project/retirement job. Or maybe we won’t learn, because a Great Man like Payton rarely sees any distinction between vanity and brilliance.

What’s certain is that Payton has carte blanche to draft a quarterback this season or not, fiddle with Stidham or pursue some discount free-agent, continue the cronification of the coaching staff (Pete Carmichael has rejoined the band), gut the roster to the core, sign every bargain-bin former Saint who is not nailed down or do some combination of all of these things. He will not be questioned for any of these decisions, even if they fail miserably. And any flicker of success – a 9-8 Wild Card season with a Bailey Zappe/Spencer Rattler quarterback platoon, perhaps – will buy Payton another year of unassailable job security.

Eventually, either Payton will succeed in building the Broncos into a Super Bowl contender or the Walton-Penners will swallow a bird to catch the spider. My money’s on the latter, but we won’t know the results for a few years.

In the meantime, Payton gets to be the only Great Man on campus. It’s far too late to worry about whether it will go to his head.

[Snake]

[Jonny]

Baker has several deficiencies, but he gives a shot at an explosive offense. Wilson has been a passive, conservative QB reluctant to fit passes in tight windows for at least two seasons now. Still a worthwhile discussion considering he could be had for a bag of russet potatoes.

Most QB's have some deficiencies. Two guys who were top 5 all time, Peyton and Tom, routinely got roasted for being about as mobile as Stonehenge. The trick is to build your offense in a way that minimizes those deficiencies and maximizes what they can do. With guys like Peyton and Tom, that's fairly easy. With mere mortals, it's trickier.

In the case of Russ, it explains why Seattle won with him. He short and tends to hold the ball too long but can throw a killer deep ball and is elite, Super Bowl notwithstanding, in the Red Zone. On a team like Prime Seattle, with an elite RB and all time great defense, he was perfect. Marshawn kept the chains moving and let Russ just take shots and cash in red zone opportunities.

Baker is a little like Russ. He's another short guy with a lively arm and decent mobility. If we sign him, we need to shore up the middle of the Oline and strengthen the running game. If we can run it better and take some of the piss out of the pass rush, Baker will be fine. We also need that interior blocking to step up to give Baker better throwing lanes. If the opposing DT's can push the pocket and get hands up, that makes life real hard for the smaller QB.

I'm with you completely. That's why I've been on the bandwagon of trading up if needed for JPJ and Cooper Beebee in the draft. Aside from protecting Baker up the middle, we also had one of the worst run games. As flawed as Baker was, it is highly possible we could get more consistent mid to high end play from him if we just address that one gaping deficiency on offense.

[Grahamburn]

There’s a really good chance the top interior linemen is available at 26.

Especially if JPJ gets past Philly.

[Kona]

JPJ, Troy Fautanu or Graham Barton are the guys I’m looking hard at in round 1. If we draft JPJ we can slide Hainsey over to LG for a year.

[13F11B]

I like R. Wilson, but with @Bootz throwing the guy his support his career is likely over. (see what happened to Jameis)

[Sdbucs]

Wait.. what?

Russ for 1.1M plus Saquon or Henry, hello?