The OFFICIAL 2024 Bucs off-season thread

[Doctor]

When did "can he be a positonal stat king" become more important than "can he win a championship"?

[CannonFire]

Bakers QBR Ranking During his best season as a NFL QB:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

LOL...
2018: 23rd (pro-football-reference.com has his "AV" listed as 10), was that one of his 3 good years?
2019: 19th (AV = 11), maybe that was one of his 3 good years.
2020: 10th (AV = 14) YES!! A good year! Interesting that it happened when there were no fans in the stands.
2021: 27th (AV = 10), was this one of his 3 good years? Wait, wasn't this the year he was injured? Weird that his
2022: Never really played, so not counting this one against him.
2023: 18th (AV = 13)

So, we're hearing he had 3 good years. What's odd, is that we keep hearing that this was a career year... yet the numbers tell us that was 2020. Also odd is that there's no differentiation in his Approximate Value in his other 3 years... even though 1 is supposedly a year he was injured. Only once in 5 full seasons played did he finish in the top 16 in QBR. But I'm the one that has to change my opinion of him!!

[Grahamburn]

@CannonFire Please tell us what your plan at QB would have been for this team if it didn’t include Mayfield? Be specific. My guess is you won’t say what you’d have done differently.

If you aren’t capable of that please stop. It’s pointless. He’s the QB here until he isn’t. What’s the point of mocking people for appreciating his story and thinking he can win here?

[Doctor]

@CannonFire Please tell us what your plan at QB would have been for this team if it didn’t include Mayfield? Be specific. My guess is you won’t say what you’d have done differently.

If you aren’t capable of that please stop. It’s pointless. He’s the QB here until he isn’t. What’s the point of mocking people for appreciating his story and thinking he can win here?

That's the beauty of savior dogma, it's like the end of a rainbow. They give no answers.

If the first overall pick fails as the savior, its the next guy, or the next guy, or the guy that had a long fall that everyone was wrong about. If there was no savior in the draft then they should've seen that too and traded (as many times as need be) into future drafts until a savior one arrived.

And they should have this magic eye as a GM because they get paid. And even though behaving in this way would get any GM fired (imagine passing on Winston), a truly good GM would do it anyway for the good of the team.

So say we all.

[BucsNBills]

I don't get where thua sudden contrarian attitude towards Baker has come from. He played great last year. Everyone loves him. Tha6t locker room rallied around him. And he's not even 30 yet.

We're not paying him the much. We didn't mortgage the future to acquire him. We're not condemned to some bloated contract like the Giants and Browns are with their inferior QBs.

I love the Baker era and hope he's here for the next 5-7 years.

[Snake]

If the Bucs agreed, they would’ve given him 5-7 years.

[kaimaru]

Bakers QBR Ranking During his best season as a NFL QB:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

His best year was also:

+ 12th in passer rating
+ 13th in yards per game
+ 16th in yards per attempt
+ 19th in comp%
+ 10th in TD%
+ 12th in INT%

So I am guessing QBR is 90% completion percentage, because 18 QBR makes no sense since no other stat is in the bottom half of the league

[Grahamburn]

Bakers QBR Ranking During his best season as a NFL QB:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

His best year was also:

+ 12th in passer rating
+ 13th in yards per game
+ 16th in yards per attempt
+ 19th in comp%
+ 10th in TD%
+ 12th in INT%

So I am guessing QBR is 90% completion percentage, because 18 QBR makes no sense since no other stat is in the bottom half of the league

QBR greatly factors in the QB’s ability to run.

[Grahamburn]

If the Bucs agreed, they would’ve given him 5-7 years.

Why do that if you don’t have to?

When you buy a stock you expect to go up do you pay the price you think it will go to? …

[Bootz]

I don't get where thua sudden contrarian attitude towards Baker has come from. He played great last year. Everyone loves him. Tha6t locker room rallied around him. And he's not even 30 yet.

We're not paying him the much. We didn't mortgage the future to acquire him. We're not condemned to some bloated contract like the Giants and Browns are with their inferior QBs.

I love the Baker era and hope he's here for the next 5-7 years.

The Bucs haven't even committed to him past 2024. Let alone until he's 35.

Here's what it looks like when you commit to a QB.

$133.7M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2023 salary + 2024 salary + 2024 option bonus + 2025 salary + 2025 option bonus)
2024 Option Bonus: $50.6M (guaranteed, due 3/22/2024)
2025 Option Bonus: $45M (guaranteed)
$24M 2026 salary fully guarantees March 2025 (injury guaranteed at signing)
$36M 2027 salary fully guarantees March 2026 (injury guaranteed at signing)
$25M of 2028 salary fully guarantees March 2027 (injury guarantees March 2026)

$110M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2023 salary + 2024 salary + 2024 option bonus + 2025 salary + 2025 option bonus + $3.696M of 2026 salary)
Additional $16.5M of 2026 salary fully guarantees 3/18/2024
Remaining $30.804M of 2026 salary fully guarantees March 2025
$22M of 2027 salary fully guarantees March 2026

$103.3M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2022 salary + 2023 salary/option + $35.3M of 2024 salary)
$18M 2025 salary fully guarantees 3/17/2024 (injury at signing)
$22.835M 2026 salary fully guarantees the 5th league day of 2025 (injury at signing)
$19.5M 2027 salary fully guarantees the 5th league day of 2026
2023 Option Bonus: $36M (guaranteed, due the 10th league day of 2023)
2025 90 Man Roster Bonus: $11.9M (fully guarantees 3/17/2024, injury at signing)
2026 90 Man Roster Bonus: $17M (fully guarantees the 5th league day of 2025, injury at signing)

$135M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2023 salary + 2024 salary + 2024 roster bonus + 2024 option bonus + 2025 option bonus)
2024 90-Man Roster Bonus: $750,000 (guaranteed, treated as signing bonus)
2024 Option Bonus: $17.5M (guaranteed, due 3/17/2024)
2025 salary fully guarantees 3/18/2024 (injury guaranteed at signing)
2025 90-Man Roster Bonus: $750,000 (fully guarantees 3/18/20244, injury guaranteed at sign)
2025 Option Bonus: $22.5M (fully guaranteed at signing, must be exercised the 5th league day of 2025)
$29M of 2026 salary fully guarantees the 5th league day of 2025 (injury guaranteed at sign)

$100M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2021 salary + 2021 roster bonus + 2022 salary + 2022 option bonus + 2023 salary + 2024 roster bonus)
$10M of 2024 salary fully guarantees on the 5th league day of 2022
Additional $13.5M of 2024 salary fully guarantees on 3/19/2023
$14M 2025 salary fully guarantees 3/17/2024
2022 Option Bonus: $42.4M (must be exercised 3/16 - 3/20)
2024 Roster Bonus: $6M (fully guarantees 8/11/2021, due 3/17/2024)
2025 Roster Bonus: $25M ($16.5M fully guarantees on 3/19/2023, paid 5th league day of 2025)

I won't bore you with who's who but none of these are Deshaun Watson or Daniel Jones or Patrick Mahomes. But all of these teams show true commitment to their QBs. Salaries that guarantee a year or 2 in advance because they know they have their guy. The Bucs meanwhile have committed to Baker fully for 2024 and then we'll wait and see.

[Backside]

Hey, we’ve gone through our 24 hour cycle once again! Congrats everyone.

[BucsNBills]

Well, I guess OBP doesn't Believe in Baker since they're not saddled down by a bloated QB contract. I guess the real discussion to be had here is that Jason Licht is giving away $50 mil guaranteed to a mid QB that he himself clearly doesn't believe in. That's the problem, not Baker.

Right?

[Pirate Life]

Yes, Mahomes is really good. Yes, we would all love to have one. And yes, he's won the recent ones, great for him.

But lets not pretend that it didn't come to the wire. Like he was so insanely ahead the gap was unmatchable. Greenlaw doesn't tear his achilles going out onto the field maybe it's looking more like the first half for Mahomes, or the first 57 minutes of their first match up, or the full 60 minutes of his match up with us.

And, again, yes we all want our own Mahomes. But this idea that you cannot win a super bowl one of a hundred different ways is nuts. Of course you can. And you bet your bottom dollar everyone who matters, from Licht to Bowles and the staff to Baker, Evans, LVD, and the rest of our leadership, they 100% believe we can go toe to toe with anyone and win the next Super Bowl. And they are right to. Spitting on that is not "being a realist".

Then show me an example of not needing a top QB to win a Superbowl. I'll wait and I guarantee you they'll all come from 5+ years ago if not longer. GO!

Matt Stafford isn't a top QB according to you, won less than 5 years ago.

[Four Verticals]

Chase Mclaughlin's deal is a 1 year/$5mil deal with 2 option years. No signing bonus, no void years. A $3.5mil roster bonus, $1.5mil base salary and $5mil cap hit. If we cut him next offseason it leads 0 in dead money.

Greg Gaines deal is 1 year, $3.5mil. No void years either.


Licht is learning he needs to use void years more judiciously.

Yeah he's learning that from you and me on a message board.

He probably felt void years were not necessary with these two deals being for 1 year and less than top dollar.

[Bootz]

Chase Mclaughlin's deal is a 1 year/$5mil deal with 2 option years. No signing bonus, no void years. A $3.5mil roster bonus, $1.5mil base salary and $5mil cap hit. If we cut him next offseason it leads 0 in dead money.

Greg Gaines deal is 1 year, $3.5mil. No void years either.


Licht is learning he needs to use void years more judiciously.

Yeah he's learning that from you and me on a message board.

He probably felt void years were not necessary with these two deals being for 1 year and less than top dollar.

I don't know if you were trying to be an asshole or not but you ended up embarrassing yourself. He signed Gaines to the same terms last offseason except that deal did include void years. That's why in addition to his contract now, Gaines also has $1.9mil in dead money on our books this year. Same with Lavonte David, Matt Feiler and Baker Mayfield. Four 1 year deals and they all included void years.

[Grahamburn]

Yeah he's learning that from you and me on a message board.

He probably felt void years were not necessary with these two deals being for 1 year and less than top dollar.

I don't know if you were trying to be an asshole or not but you ended up embarrassing yourself. He signed Gaines to the same terms last offseason except that deal did include void years. That's why in addition to his contract now, Gaines also has $1.9mil in dead money on our books this year. Same with Lavonte David, Matt Feiler and Baker Mayfield. Four 1 year deals and they all included void years.

They couldn’t have signed you without void years last off-season.

[Bootz]

I don't know if you were trying to be an asshole or not but you ended up embarrassing yourself. He signed Gaines to the same terms last offseason except that deal did include void years. That's why in addition to his contract now, Gaines also has $1.9mil in dead money on our books this year. Same with Lavonte David, Matt Feiler and Baker Mayfield. Four 1 year deals and they all included void years.

They couldn’t have signed you without void years last off-season.

You and I know that. @Four Verticals obviously did not as he stated that Licht felt 1 year deals for "less than top dollar" didn't necessitate void years.

[Four Verticals]

They couldn’t have signed you without void years last off-season.

You and I know that. @Four Verticals obviously did not as he stated that Licht felt 1 year deals for "less than top dollar" didn't necessitate void years.

True. The overall point of my post is that Licht isn't learning anything from anyone on this board. He's doing what he needs to do to structure a contract to sign the guys he wants or needs to....which includes leaving cap space available to sign other guys.

The constant bellowing about void years and dead cap space by you dim bulbs is remarkable. That along with bitching about every move/non move the team makes in the form of you know better.

[Sdbucs]

PFF Bucs Position Ranks from 2023 season:

QB - #19
WR - #17, #28
HB - #41
TE - #48
C - #32
G - #47, #55
T - #5, #27
CB - #26, #115
S - #1, #39
LB - #26, #80
IDL - #15, #50
DE - #71, #81

Based on this, we have some pretty desperate needs at DE and IOL. Followed by TE/HB/CB.

And it says we suck at every position besides WR, Tackle, and Safety.

[Snake]

PFF might be struggling to see the forest for the trees right here.

Canales had the running backs running directly behind the interior line for majority of their carries. It’s hard to excel as running backs when your interior offensive line is not doing shit and you’re running interior concepts.

[Doctor]

You and I know that. @Four Verticals obviously did not as he stated that Licht felt 1 year deals for "less than top dollar" didn't necessitate void years.

True. The overall point of my post is that Licht isn't learning anything from anyone on this board. He's doing what he needs to do to structure a contract to sign the guys he wants or needs to....which includes leaving cap space available to sign other guys.

The constant bellowing about void years and dead cap space by you dim bulbs is remarkable. That along with bitching about every move/non move the team makes in the form of you know better.

People see stuff like dead money and void years and get flashbacks to when McKay burned the house down deep frying a turkey.

Let Licht cook.

[Bootz]

Over/Under 3.5 rookie starters to begin this season.

[acmillis]

There will be 2, so under.

[Doctor]

Way under. WR and DB is pretty stacked in this class and hopefully positions we double dip in too. Though those starters are pretty set. At least early on.

[Bootz]

Fun fact: He's the last DB to defend a route run by AB before his CTE kicked in.

[Buc2]

Over/Under 3.5 rookie starters to begin this season.

Under barring injuries to veteran starters.

[Grahamburn]

Look at that baby face.

[Grahamburn]

Over/Under 3.5 rookie starters to begin this season.

LG or Center and CB if they draft one 1st/2nd. EDGE? Maybe long snapper?

[Bootz]

Over/Under 3.5 rookie starters to begin this season.

LG or Center and CB if they draft one 1st/2nd. EDGE? Maybe long snapper?

I'm thinking LG, C, Edge, CB and ILB are all in play. I think it would be a mistake to hand the keys to Britt & McCollum without some real competition. We literally don't have a LG on this team. Hainsey was the worst starring C in football the past 2 years. JTS is a bust.

[Grahamburn]

LG or Center and CB if they draft one 1st/2nd. EDGE? Maybe long snapper?

I'm thinking LG, C, Edge, CB and ILB are all in play. I think it would be a mistake to hand the keys to Britt & McCollum without some real competition. We literally don't have a LG on this team. Hainsey was the worst starring C in football the past 2 years. JTS is a bust.

Wasn't Dennis hurt at the end of the year? I wonder if he and Britt will have a competition to play alongside David. Probably a late pick added to that room. I wouldn't expect a starter there.

I think they trust McCollum and YaYa. Both got plenty of snaps last year and hopefully grow even more with another off-season. I agree on JTS, but still expect him to get snaps. At 26 even if they draft a guy like Chop he needs some seasoning to be pro ready.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them stop gap LG again with a free agent on a one year deal. If you can get JPJ maybe that moves Hainsey to LG. I don't think he had ever played center before? Maybe losing the snap responsibilities and playing next to Wirfs helps him.

Obviously you learn more after the draft.

[Bootz]

I'm thinking LG, C, Edge, CB and ILB are all in play. I think it would be a mistake to hand the keys to Britt & McCollum without some real competition. We literally don't have a LG on this team. Hainsey was the worst starring C in football the past 2 years. JTS is a bust.

Wasn't Dennis hurt at the end of the year? I wonder if he and Britt will have a competition to play alongside David. Probably a late pick added to that room. I wouldn't expect a starter there.

I think they trust McCollum and YaYa. Both got plenty of snaps last year and hopefully grow even more with another off-season. I agree on JTS, but still expect him to get snaps. At 26 even if they draft a guy like Chop he needs some seasoning to be pro ready.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them stop gap LG again with a free agent on a one year deal. If you can get JPJ maybe that moves Hainsey to LG. I don't think he had ever played center before? Maybe losing the snap responsibilities and playing next to Wirfs helps him.

Obviously you learn more after the draft.

Dennis projects as a ST guy IMO. He's smaller, slower than most LBs. That seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Britt we got to see what he can do. But we also saw what he can't do. You might as well ask the ref to blitz in his place because you're gonna get the same result. Neither of those guys really protect to be quality starters.

I think Yaya earned his starting spot last season. Zyon I'm not sold on. He did improve though so I could see OBP being impressed enough to move forward with him.

As I stated JTS is a bust. He lost his starting spot to Yaya and hasn't really improved at all. He likely won't even pick up his 5th year option.

I'd be shocked if Licht tried to go the stop gap route at LG 2 years straight and expect a different result. Matt Feiler was that guy and before he got hurt he sucked at his job. Hainsey is much like JTS to me. Not much development to speak of after 3 years. None at all actually as he went from being the worst C in 2022 to the worst C in 2023. Moving him probably yields similar results as his natural position is RT, much like every other OL player on this team.

JPJ would be most ideal. We can't continue to treat the Oline like a science project trying to see if square pieces can fit in round holes. We need to come away with at least 2 high upside guys on the Oline. The way we've approached FA thus far leads me to believe OL or offense will be a priority.

[Four Verticals]

Wasn't Dennis hurt at the end of the year? I wonder if he and Britt will have a competition to play alongside David. Probably a late pick added to that room. I wouldn't expect a starter there.

I think they trust McCollum and YaYa. Both got plenty of snaps last year and hopefully grow even more with another off-season. I agree on JTS, but still expect him to get snaps. At 26 even if they draft a guy like Chop he needs some seasoning to be pro ready.

Wouldn't surprise me to see them stop gap LG again with a free agent on a one year deal. If you can get JPJ maybe that moves Hainsey to LG. I don't think he had ever played center before? Maybe losing the snap responsibilities and playing next to Wirfs helps him.

Obviously you learn more after the draft.

Dennis projects as a ST guy IMO. He's smaller, slower than most LBs. That seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Britt we got to see what he can do. But we also saw what he can't do. You might as well ask the ref to blitz in his place because you're gonna get the same result. Neither of those guys really protect to be quality starters.

In either case, neither projects as the typical Bowles LBer since he likes to come after the QB from all angles. I can see a first 3 rounds pick on an ILB.

[Bootz]

Dennis projects as a ST guy IMO. He's smaller, slower than most LBs. That seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Britt we got to see what he can do. But we also saw what he can't do. You might as well ask the ref to blitz in his place because you're gonna get the same result. Neither of those guys really protect to be quality starters.

In either case, neither projects as the typical Bowles LBer since he likes to come after the QB from all angles. I can see a first 3 rounds pick on an ILB.

Absolutely. It's easy to forget that Devin White was the 1st draft pick that BA/Bowles made when they got to town. This defense requires top notch play from the ILB position. And not just as a replacement for DW this year but Lavonte David is 34. He's not gonna be here much longer so we'd be wise to find a replacement soon.

[Doctor]

Dennis projects as a ST guy IMO.

Wrongstradamus is on fire

[Bootz]

Dennis projects as a ST guy IMO.

Wrongstradamus is on fire

You have proof to the contrary?