PFF and the Draft

[Sdbucs]

On a bit of a PFF kick lately and was curious about whether PFF's NCAA ratings predicted success in the NFL. I looked at the top PFF rated players in 2023 as well as some players that I consider good players, and compared how they were in college. I consider a PFF score of 85+ high, 80-85 good, and below 80 average/poor. Here's the takeaways:

Offense:
Unpredictable: QB and WR are the most unpredictable/least tied to PFF rating. Josh Allen was the #1 rated QB in 2023 but only posted a 66.6 PFF rating in his final NCAA season. Mahomes, Burrow, and Jackson all posted high scores in their final college seasons and showed progression from the beginning of NCAA to the end. The rest of nearby QBs were a mixed bag of ratings. Progression with a strong finish seems important.

Unpredictable: Tyreek Hill only earned an 81 in his final NCAA season. Amon-Ra? a 71.7. AJ Brown? a 79.3. Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase are two of the only top talented WRs to post strong PFF numbers in their final NCAA season (85+). Seems like the college predicts success more than rating.

Mixed bag: Running back is a little more accurate. Achane, McCaffrey, Henry, Taylor all consistently put up mid 80s and higher throughout college. But RBs like Conner and Mostert sneak in the top 2023 backs despite posting poor NCAA numbers.

Predictable: The top TEs all posted 80 or higher their final season.

Predictable: The top Tackles all posted 90 or higher in their final season in the NCAA. Very strong association between PFF grade and performance.

Unpredictable: The top guards saw a lot of variance ranging from 75.9 to 92.1 in their final NCAA seasons.

Defense:

Predictable: TJ Watt is the exception, posting only an 81.8. Everyone else (Garret/Parsons/Bosa/Crosby/Hutchinson) posted 88 or higher.

Predictable: The top CBS all posted 80 or higher their final season.

Predictable: The top IDL all posted 88 or higher their final season.


Based on this very limited 2023 data set, it seems as though highly rated Edge and IDL predicts odds of success in NFL. A high number seems less important for DB, but a floor of 80 appears to be important. Offensive Tackle is similar to Edge/IDL, a high rating in NCAA is a predictor of success.
QB/WR/RB/OG/LB all seem to be more of a crap shoot.

A team looking to strategize off this analysis would target OT/Edge/IDL in the early rounds and attempt to find diamond in the rough players at QB/WR/RB/OG/LB in later rounds. TE is not worth targeting unless they meet the 80+ threshold.

Here would be my prospects as such:

OT - Joe Alt, Talise Fuaga, Kiran Amegadjie
EDGE - Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson, Marshawn Kneeland
IDL - T'Vondre Sweat, Byron Murphy II
TE - AJ Barner, Ben Sinnott
CB - Lotsssss of options. Wouldn't take one in the first given there are 20+ with an 80+ rating


Happy to pull data for anyone with questions.

[Snake]

Post-combine chart

[13F11B]

For the most part, PFF seems like the tool of Internet trolls more than a legit measure of reality.

[Bootz]

For the most part, PFF seems like the tool of Internet trolls more than a legit measure of reality.

Yet you used it last week to try and make a point about a players "ranking" then you were proven wrong.

[mdb1958]

Most all the boards are different.

[Doctor]

PFF is a tool and like all tools it has a specific function. Usually confirmation bias.

[13F11B]

For the most part, PFF seems like the tool of Internet trolls more than a legit measure of reality.

Yet you used it last week to try and make a point about a players "ranking" then you were proven wrong.

So, today I was proven right then. Cool.

[Jonny]

I am a fan of Trevor Sikemma and Connor Rodgers, two of the more important guys at PFF leading draft evaluations. NFL Stock Exchange podcast of theirs is all pure football geekery and quite entertaining.

Draft is a projection. I have a ton of respect for guys making a living out of educated guesswork. So much of player success is reliant on intangibles, coaching and being in the right situation at the right time. Never understood criticism of people willing to take a chance.

[mdb1958]

I was surprised that when you get the full version of PFF it doesnt add to the prospect list.

[Snake]

What is wrong with you? I have to know.

[mdb1958]

What is wrong with you? I have to know.

I have not found the time yet to figure out why my Gravely is drinking so much gas. If I stick to priorities I prolly will never be able to list the thousands upon thousands of things wrong with me.

[kaimaru]

I am a fan of Trevor Sikemma and Connor Rodgers, two of the more important guys at PFF leading draft evaluations. NFL Stock Exchange podcast of theirs is all pure football geekery and quite entertaining.

Draft is a projection. I have a ton of respect for guys making a living out of educated guesswork. So much of player success is reliant on intangibles, coaching and being in the right situation at the right time. Never understood criticism of people willing to take a chance.

I don't know. Let's say you have a relatively young coaching staff. You reach for a freak athletic project at the three technique, yet your dline coach was a former nose guard and never developed a DT and neither has anyone else on the staff. I would be critical as the chances of success is very low

[mdb1958]

Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren

[mdb1958]

Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren

[Snake]

I am a fan of Trevor Sikemma and Connor Rodgers, two of the more important guys at PFF leading draft evaluations. NFL Stock Exchange podcast of theirs is all pure football geekery and quite entertaining.

Draft is a projection. I have a ton of respect for guys making a living out of educated guesswork. So much of player success is reliant on intangibles, coaching and being in the right situation at the right time. Never understood criticism of people willing to take a chance.

I don't know. Let's say you have a relatively young coaching staff. You reach for a freak athletic project at the three technique, yet your dline coach was a former nose guard and never developed a DT and neither has anyone else on the staff. I would be critical as the chances of success is very low

I think it’s a big question about how much the team coaching up individual players matters. Scheming them up for success is one thing. But actually coaching them is another.

Many elite and non-elite NBA players get private coaches every off-season. To shore up their deficiencies and learn different skills. NFL players should be doing the same thing. Why assume the guy who your head coach is buddies with is the best guy to teach you? He often isn’t

[kaimaru]

I don't know. Let's say you have a relatively young coaching staff. You reach for a freak athletic project at the three technique, yet your dline coach was a former nose guard and never developed a DT and neither has anyone else on the staff. I would be critical as the chances of success is very low

I think it’s a big question about how much the team coaching up individual players matters. Scheming them up for success is one thing. But actually coaching them is another.

Many elite and non-elite NBA players get private coaches every off-season. To shore up their deficiencies and learn different skills. NFL players should be doing the same thing. Why assume the guy who your head coach is buddies with is the best guy to teach you? He often isn’t

Those people on the bottom half of the roster, yes, I am sure many get trainers. I don't doubt that. But do you really think a first round pick who was successful in college on talent and middling skill who just got a fat wad of money for the next 4 years is going to find a trainer? Even after year 3, they made generational wealth, why spend money if it may or may not improve you. I just can't see your situation playing out. Everyone spends money to make them happy. Unless the player is determined to be a HoF, I can't see them spending the money on a trainer