The coaching industry has essentially been strip mined aggressively for the past five seasons. Twenty-three head coaches have come and gone since ’22 alone. Here’s a look at the firings by season:
2020: 5
2021: 7
2022: 10
2023: 5
2024: 8
This year, there are already two head coach openings: the Saints and the Jets. Based on conversations with those in the coaching industry, estimates are there will be between seven and 10 total vacancies for this year, depending on how the season ends.
There are college coaches who desperately want to come to the NFL, but I do not see there being an appetite for college coaches at the NFL level—despite the success of Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers this year. Even though USC coach Lincoln Riley’s name came up earlier in the year, as well as Ohio State’s Ryan Day, I have not heard the same level of excitement around those names as the season wore on. I have not been alerted to any seriousness regarding a Deion Sanders and Jerry Jones reunion.
The 27 top candidates (I chose some interesting names instead of posting all 27)
Bill Belichick, former head coach, New England Patriots
Still the most entertaining and discussed figure this cycle, the legendary Bill Belichick is believed by some people to be a prime candidate in the head coaching world and by others a prime candidate for the media world. Just like last year at this time, the industry is divided on the eight-time Super Bowl winner (six as a head coach), who will enter next season at age 73.
Liam Coen, offensive coordinator, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“He’s on the right track,” Mark Whipple, a highly respected NFL quarterbacks coach, and longtime college head coach and offensive coordinator told me about Liam Coen.
“He’s a great listener. He has a good rapport with Baker Mayfield. He always took great notes. The first year he coached quarterbacks [under me at UMass], that guy went on to be All-MAC. He ran the meetings. He’s attentive, detail-oriented. He left me and went to Maine, did a great job with the quarterback there and got in with the right group in the NFL.
“Most importantly, Liam played the position and he understands these things as it relates to the quarterback.”
Despite the fact that Coen’s Buccaneers lost their top three receiving targets to injury, Tampa Bay has maintained a top-third offense in the NFL and has challenged the likes of the 49ers, Chiefs, Falcons and Ravens during Tampa’s recent losing streak.
Brian Flores, defensive coordinator, Minnesota Vikings
“With me, he was coming off being head coach of the Miami Dolphins, and he did not care what his role was,” Mike Tomlin, who hired Brian Flores as a senior defensive assistant in 2022, told me. “He just wanted to be a component of what we were doing. He wanted to put his hand in the pile. That speaks to the humility of the man, and his love and relationship to the game. And, his love of the vocation of coaching.
“He came in and did everything we asked him to do. He was always willing to add additional insight that his experience and capabilities provided, but he was not heavy-handed with that. I was just really impressed with how he managed the opportunity that he had here and what he brought to us. Being around him day to day and getting to know him as a football man and a football coach … I feel the same way about him as I felt about Raheem Morris when I talked to people regarding his candidacy. I thought Raheem was the best coaching candidate in the world without a head coaching job, and I feel the same way about Flo in this cycle.”
Flores began the season on a torrid stretch, wiping out some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. As of the publication of this piece, Minnesota is still the best defense in the NFL in terms of EPA per play allowed. Minnesota is first in turnovers, and in the top three across the board in all major rushing defense categories.
Ben Johnson, offensive coordinator, Detroit Lions
We first introduced you to Ben Johnson in 2022, labeling him with the up-and-coming-McVay-like tag. Since then, Johnson has gone on to become one of the most sought-after offensive coaches in each of the past two cycles, before deciding to return to the Lions in 2023 to round out his skill set and then again in ’24 after having felt the sting of a playoff loss to the 49ers. It’s a matter of when and not if for Johnson.
“Ben has grown the most of any coach I’ve ever been around,” Dan Campbell tells me. “He’s always been a very creative play-caller. He has great vision every week for how to attack our opponents, but most importantly he knows how to communicate that vision to our players in the room with him. He’s confident, competent and above all, competitive. The players on offense respond to him because of it.”
Josh McCown, quarterbacks coach, Minnesota Vikings
Josh McCown has already had head coaching interviews, which makes his detour to Minnesota all the more interesting. Working with his former mentee Sam Darnold—a relationship I profiled back in 2018—McCown continues to establish his coaching bona fides, which should eventually lead to a head coaching seat. It would not be surprising to see McCown factor heavily into the interview process or play-calling offensive coordinator conversation during this cycle.
Robert Saleh, offensive consultant, Green Bay Packers
After Robert Saleh’s dismissal as head coach of the Jets, his former team bottomed out. Here’s a handy graph to show the difference between Saleh’s Jets and an interim-led team. Saleh had the Jets one game out of first place and, behind the scenes, was instrumental in clearing out much of the organizational discord that quickly returned upon his ouster. While the likely path for Saleh is back through a defensive coordinator job, the dichotomy between the Jets he was present for (a team competitive with Zach Wilson) and the Jets he left (a team with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams getting waxed by the Cardinals) could be worth a sit down.
Arthur Smith, offensive coordinator, Pittsburgh Steelers
Arthur Smith, the former Atlanta head coach, was 21–30 in three years with the Falcons during a time of roster tumult. The team had to sit on massive dead-cap hits following the losses of program stalwarts such as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Smith’s quarterback for a majority of his time was former University of Cincinnati standout Desmond Ridder. Now in Pittsburgh, Smith is at the helm of a dramatically improved Steelers offense that has won games with both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson.
Mike Vrabel, personnel consultant, Cleveland Browns
The Browns have struggled mightily in 2024, though Mike Vrabel, the longtime Titans head coach, seemed to be a valuable addition to the staff. Anecdotally, Vrabel has garnered the respect of coaches in that building and is one of the hotter names on the cycle, especially given the way Tennessee has struggled in his absence. Vrabel is a strong presence and would be a valuable addition, especially for a franchise struggling to garner an identity.
https://www.si.com/nfl/future-nfl-head- ... es-johnson
