Baker Mayfield: PAID

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Grahamburn
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Grahamburn »

CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:49 am Some like to focus on a few stats that imply that Baker Mayfield was a top 10 QB. Let's look a little deeper at his numbers:

League "Averages":
Comp%: 65.13%
Yards/Att: 7.12
TD%: 4.39%
Int%: 1.87%

Baker Mayfield had 566 pass attempts last year. If he were a league average passer, his final stat line would look like this:
369 - 566 / 65.13% (obviously) / 4039 yards / 25 TD / 11 Int / 92.7 passer rating.

What was Mayfield's actual stat line:
364 - 566 / 64.31% / 4044 / 28 / 10 / 94.6

WOW!!! Who's shocked that overall, Mayfield's numbers are around league average? I know I'm not.

In terms are yards per attempt, Mayfield ranked 15th
Passing success rate: 20th
Yards gained per comp: 15th
Yards per game: 13th
Rating: 12th
QBR: 19th
Net Yards per pass attempt: 18th

Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... assing.htm

Basically, a league average QB with some counting numbers boosted by having the 7th most pass attempts in the league. It resulted in the 20th best scoring offense and a 9-win season. So... the epitome, of "average". There's no reason to give him any kind of deal that extends past 2025 or have any guaranteed money. Nor should he prevent us from drafting (even trading up to draft), a QB in the 1st round this year. A 2-yr $45M deal should be enough. I don't envision anyone on the open market offering more than that. If they do, let them have him. It's akin to doing something foolish like giving Dak Prescott $40M AAV.
So, a little above average. 32 starting QBs. Borderline top 10 depending on what you want to look at.

Glass half empty or half full. Just a matter of perspective.
CannonFire
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by CannonFire »

Grahamburn wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:57 pm
CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:49 am Some like to focus on a few stats that imply that Baker Mayfield was a top 10 QB. Let's look a little deeper at his numbers:

League "Averages":
Comp%: 65.13%
Yards/Att: 7.12
TD%: 4.39%
Int%: 1.87%

Baker Mayfield had 566 pass attempts last year. If he were a league average passer, his final stat line would look like this:
369 - 566 / 65.13% (obviously) / 4039 yards / 25 TD / 11 Int / 92.7 passer rating.

What was Mayfield's actual stat line:
364 - 566 / 64.31% / 4044 / 28 / 10 / 94.6

WOW!!! Who's shocked that overall, Mayfield's numbers are around league average? I know I'm not.

In terms are yards per attempt, Mayfield ranked 15th
Passing success rate: 20th
Yards gained per comp: 15th
Yards per game: 13th
Rating: 12th
QBR: 19th
Net Yards per pass attempt: 18th

Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... assing.htm

Basically, a league average QB with some counting numbers boosted by having the 7th most pass attempts in the league. It resulted in the 20th best scoring offense and a 9-win season. So... the epitome, of "average". There's no reason to give him any kind of deal that extends past 2025 or have any guaranteed money. Nor should he prevent us from drafting (even trading up to draft), a QB in the 1st round this year. A 2-yr $45M deal should be enough. I don't envision anyone on the open market offering more than that. If they do, let them have him. It's akin to doing something foolish like giving Dak Prescott $40M AAV.
So, a little above average. 32 starting QBs. Borderline top 10 depending on what you want to look at.

Glass half empty or half full. Just a matter of perspective.
I look at from an overall perspective. He's not borderline top 10 in anything excepting counting stats promoted by volume. Every metric he's either average, slightly better than, or slightly worse than. In total, he's average. If you take those 6 categories I mentioned and averaged them out, they come out to 16.17... exactly average.

In general... teams with good QB's, have good records. Teams with average QB's, have average records. Teams with below average have below average records. We have an average QB, we had an average record. It's not really much harder than that. Now, you can argue that even finding an average QB isn't easy... fine, but you're not winning with an average QB. You're going to have to get lucky. Well, if I'm banking on luck for a good season, I'd rather bank on it to find a franchise QB and at the very worst, have the money to spend on the rest of the team in the meantime.
Last edited by CannonFire on Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
GreatTimes
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by GreatTimes »

CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:01 pm
Grahamburn wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:57 pm

So, a little above average. 32 starting QBs. Borderline top 10 depending on what you want to look at.

Glass half empty or half full. Just a matter of perspective.
I look at overall. He's not borderline top 10 in anything excepting counting stats promoted by volume. Every metric he's either average, slightly better than, or slightly worse than. In total, he's average. If you take those 6 categories I mentioned and averaged them out, they come out to 16.17... exactly average.
Well lets sign him up for $40 million a year for 5 years , all fully guaranteed.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by CannonFire »

GreatTimes wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:19 pm
CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:01 pm

I look at overall. He's not borderline top 10 in anything excepting counting stats promoted by volume. Every metric he's either average, slightly better than, or slightly worse than. In total, he's average. If you take those 6 categories I mentioned and averaged them out, they come out to 16.17... exactly average.
Well lets sign him up for $40 million a year for 5 years , all fully guaranteed.
Makes sense... get Jason on the phone!!
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Bootz »

CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:40 pm
GreatTimes wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:19 pm
Well lets sign him up for $40 million a year for 5 years , all fully guaranteed.
Makes sense... get Jason on the phone!!
I'd do $40mil AAV. It is tied for 10th in highest AAV for QBs and dropping. He'd be tied with Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford and Daniel Jones. But fully guaranteed? Nah.
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Four Verticals
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Four Verticals »

GreatTimes wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:19 pm
CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:01 pm

I look at overall. He's not borderline top 10 in anything excepting counting stats promoted by volume. Every metric he's either average, slightly better than, or slightly worse than. In total, he's average. If you take those 6 categories I mentioned and averaged them out, they come out to 16.17... exactly average.
Well lets sign him up for $40 million a year for 5 years , all fully guaranteed.
For the entertainment value alone...I'm all for it.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by mdb1958 »

This hardcore Buc fan thinks - this is what we are willing to do, at this moment. Team fan always over player fan.
Grahamburn
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Grahamburn »

CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:01 pm
Grahamburn wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:57 pm

So, a little above average. 32 starting QBs. Borderline top 10 depending on what you want to look at.

Glass half empty or half full. Just a matter of perspective.
I look at from an overall perspective. He's not borderline top 10 in anything excepting counting stats promoted by volume. Every metric he's either average, slightly better than, or slightly worse than. In total, he's average. If you take those 6 categories I mentioned and averaged them out, they come out to 16.17... exactly average.

In general... teams with good QB's, have good records. Teams with average QB's, have average records. Teams with below average have below average records. We have an average QB, we had an average record. It's not really much harder than that. Now, you can argue that even finding an average QB isn't easy... fine, but you're not winning with an average QB. You're going to have to get lucky. Well, if I'm banking on luck for a good season, I'd rather bank on it to find a franchise QB and at the very worst, have the money to spend on the rest of the team in the meantime.
If you’re signing Mayfield to any deal at all it doesn’t make much sense to draft a QB early. It especially doesn’t make sense to move UP for one.

If that’s the case just go get your guy and let Mayfield walk. Go into next season with rookie and Trask.

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that we sign Mayfield though. To what kind of deal? I guess we’ll wait and see.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by GoldenBudda »

I don't think we need to overpay Baker the same way the Giants overpaid Jones. Jones showed promise, and he played hardball and went for full compensation and got it. Jones was drafted by the Giants, beloved by the owner, and he showed promise.

Baker doesn't have the same leverage Jones had. He got bounced out of Cleveland. Usually that's a Godsend but he landed in Carolina, one of the few places on the planet worse than Cleveland (strictly from a football perspective ;)

With Tepper running the show, nobody is going to win anything in Carolina for at least the next decade. Benched in Carolina, Baker had completely lost his mojo. He even began to question himself. Maybe he wasn't good enough to be an NFL QB?

Personally, I like Baker. He's a gamer, and he'll always take the shot and play through the pain. Playing through injury is who he is. He played through injury this year multiple games and he played through injury in Cleveland, which is why there's the inconsistencies throughout his career.


To me, Baker is more of a Brad Johnson type of QB than a Mahomes. He's gritty AF and if you surround him with a good running game and a good defense, he can win you a lot of games. If you don't have the team around him, he's not going to put on his Superman cape like Mahomes and go get everybody a ring.

He has weaknesses as well. Early in the year I noticed he was having trouble gripping the ball, to the point he was double, and triple clutching so much he was missing opportunities to throw. Later in the year that got cleaned up, but it is part of who he is. He has small hands and he's 6 feet tall with lots of tipped balls because he doesn't have the prototypical size. Is he even in the conversation with the elite NFL QB's? I don't think so, and that includes the salary conversation as well.

It is what it is. I anticipate a 5-year deal in the 30-35M per year range, with 90M guaranteed and minimal cap hit after 2 years if we need to cut bait. I think this would be a fair deal for both sides. Baker will get a load of upfront cash in exchange for the essentially 2-year deal with an option for 3 more years.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by CannonFire »

Grahamburn wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:28 am
CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:01 pm
I look at from an overall perspective. He's not borderline top 10 in anything excepting counting stats promoted by volume. Every metric he's either average, slightly better than, or slightly worse than. In total, he's average. If you take those 6 categories I mentioned and averaged them out, they come out to 16.17... exactly average.

In general... teams with good QB's, have good records. Teams with average QB's, have average records. Teams with below average have below average records. We have an average QB, we had an average record. It's not really much harder than that. Now, you can argue that even finding an average QB isn't easy... fine, but you're not winning with an average QB. You're going to have to get lucky. Well, if I'm banking on luck for a good season, I'd rather bank on it to find a franchise QB and at the very worst, have the money to spend on the rest of the team in the meantime.
If you’re signing Mayfield to any deal at all it doesn’t make much sense to draft a QB early. It especially doesn’t make sense to move UP for one.

If that’s the case just go get your guy and let Mayfield walk. Go into next season with rookie and Trask.

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that we sign Mayfield though. To what kind of deal? I guess we’ll wait and see.
If the Bucs give Mayfield a stupid deal like the Giants/Jones deal, then you are correct... but to say "any deal", then that's wrong. If Licht is smart, he gives Mayfield a 2 yr/$40 to $50M deal and tells Baker, "Look, I like what we saw this year and I'm willing to give you more money and another chance to show you can get better. If you do, we'll renegotiate that second year and give you a deal in line with market value."

Mayfield is a league average QB. If Licht believes there's a franchise QB available when we draft, it is his responsibility to draft him. A 2 yr deal for Mayfield should not trump that selection. So, when Mayfield has another mediocre season, and we end up with 7 or 8 wins next year, the following season, Mayfield can compete with the kid we draft this year for the job. If Mayfield wins, then after the 2025 offseason, we fire Licht because he would then have been 0-4 in looking for a franchise QB, and bring in a new GM to see if he can do it. If the kid wins the job, then we're on the road to progress.

Trask was a wasted pick in 2021 and it was proven when Mayfield was given the job in August. As far as I'm concerned, he should be released during the offseason and a veteran backup should be brought in to replace him.

I don't disagree that the Bucs will in fact, screw up and give Mayfield a deal. I just hope they don't compound that mistake by making it a bad deal... and even worse, not looking to replace him in April. Like I said, 2 yr deal at $20-$25M AAV and drafting a QB in round 1 is the right move. To me, anything else is a mistake.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by CannonFire »

GoldenBudda wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 11:29 pm Jones showed promise
I agree with most of what you said in your post, with the exception of the quoted. This never happened. :D

If what you said at the end is even offered to Mayfield, the Glazers need to step in and fire Licht on the spot.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Cheb »

CannonFire wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:32 am
Grahamburn wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:28 am

If you’re signing Mayfield to any deal at all it doesn’t make much sense to draft a QB early. It especially doesn’t make sense to move UP for one.

If that’s the case just go get your guy and let Mayfield walk. Go into next season with rookie and Trask.

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that we sign Mayfield though. To what kind of deal? I guess we’ll wait and see.
If the Bucs give Mayfield a stupid deal like the Giants/Jones deal, then you are correct... but to say "any deal", then that's wrong. If Licht is smart, he gives Mayfield a 2 yr/$40 to $50M deal and tells Baker, "Look, I like what we saw this year and I'm willing to give you more money and another chance to show you can get better. If you do, we'll renegotiate that second year and give you a deal in line with market value."

Mayfield is a league average QB. If Licht believes there's a franchise QB available when we draft, it is his responsibility to draft him. A 2 yr deal for Mayfield should not trump that selection. So, when Mayfield has another mediocre season, and we end up with 7 or 8 wins next year, the following season, Mayfield can compete with the kid we draft this year for the job. If Mayfield wins, then after the 2025 offseason, we fire Licht because he would then have been 0-4 in looking for a franchise QB, and bring in a new GM to see if he can do it. If the kid wins the job, then we're on the road to progress.

Trask was a wasted pick in 2021 and it was proven when Mayfield was given the job in August. As far as I'm concerned, he should be released during the offseason and a veteran backup should be brought in to replace him.

I don't disagree that the Bucs will in fact, screw up and give Mayfield a deal. I just hope they don't compound that mistake by making it a bad deal... and even worse, not looking to replace him in April. Like I said, 2 yr deal at $20-$25M AAV and drafting a QB in round 1 is the right move. To me, anything else is a mistake.
I disagree with you a bit here.

You say (and probably rightly) that Trask was a wasted pick. But at the same time, you advocate for us drafting a quarterback with a high selection when our guy is already in the building. One could argue that this would be repeating the same circumstances that led to the Bucs drafting Trask, adding a dude who rides pine instead of someone who can provide meaningful snaps.

"But Cheb, what if we draft our QBotF and just sit him for a year or several, like Pat Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love?" I mean I guess. But wouldn't a new GM want to get HIS guy and not some leftover who couldn't even get on the field?

I dunno. I can see both sides here. It's just part of me thinks that if we are going to go all-in on Mayfield, maybe using that first round selection for an edge rusher or a left guard or a safety to improve the TEAM would be better than using/wasting it on a guy whose largest responsibility would be to make sure Baker's coffee is warm.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Doctor »

I can't believe I'm doing this but I actually agree more with Cannon here.

49ers aren't in the SB because John and Kyle spotted the perfect QB and plucked him out of the draft. That was Trey Lance and he was a disaster. They are there because, despite having that already, they still HEDGED their bets with another guy. And that's what it's about. If JJ McCarthy is there in the 2nd, Jim should totally pull the trigger. If there's a QB we love when we pick, yes, pull the trigger.

1) We've seen again and again how crucial the back up QB is in the league. Not only keeping you alive for a few weeks, but sometimes taking over all together to Foles it for you. And who knows when that Foles actually ends up being a Brady.

2) Back ups are very expensive. Think of it as drafting $10M in cap space a year for four years.

3) You never know what's going to happen. Maybe Herbert/Baker/Bledsoe/RG3 has a huge regression. Maybe some family events alters their mental game forever. Maybe it's a catastrophic injury. Any number of things can happen.

By all means have a plan ready to go to pick up the pieces and carry on with the plan. "Well if that happens, then just tank, grab a new QB, and try again" isn't a legit plan. Having a hedge on the roster is. Having a Brady, a Cousins, a Purdy, a Rivers, a Love, etc on the roster is a plan.

Again, I by all means do not believe in the rookie savior, nor think forcing the pick ever works. But if Jaylen Daniels is there when we pick, hard to say he's not BPA.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by 13F11B »

Doctor wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:59 am I can't believe I'm doing this but I actually agree more with Cannon here.

49ers aren't in the SB because John and Kyle spotted the perfect QB and plucked him out of the draft. That was Trey Lance and he was a disaster. They are there because, despite having that already, they still HEDGED their bets with another guy. And that's what it's about. If JJ McCarthy is there in the 2nd, Jim should totally pull the trigger. If there's a QB we love when we pick, yes, pull the trigger.

1) We've seen again and again how crucial the back up QB is in the league. Not only keeping you alive for a few weeks, but sometimes taking over all together to Foles it for you. And who knows when that Foles actually ends up being a Brady.

2) Back ups are very expensive. Think of it as drafting $10M in cap space a year for four years.

3) You never know what's going to happen. Maybe Herbert/Baker/Bledsoe/RG3 has a huge regression. Maybe some family events alters their mental game forever. Maybe it's a catastrophic injury. Any number of things can happen.

By all means have a plan ready to go to pick up the pieces and carry on with the plan. "Well if that happens, then just tank, grab a new QB, and try again" isn't a legit plan. Having a hedge on the roster is. Having a Brady, a Cousins, a Purdy, a Rivers, a Love, etc on the roster is a plan.

Again, I by all means do not believe in the rookie savior, nor think forcing the pick ever works. But if Jaylen Daniels is there when we pick, hard to say he's not BPA.
100%

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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by CannonFire »

Cheb wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:44 am
CannonFire wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2024 10:32 am

If the Bucs give Mayfield a stupid deal like the Giants/Jones deal, then you are correct... but to say "any deal", then that's wrong. If Licht is smart, he gives Mayfield a 2 yr/$40 to $50M deal and tells Baker, "Look, I like what we saw this year and I'm willing to give you more money and another chance to show you can get better. If you do, we'll renegotiate that second year and give you a deal in line with market value."

Mayfield is a league average QB. If Licht believes there's a franchise QB available when we draft, it is his responsibility to draft him. A 2 yr deal for Mayfield should not trump that selection. So, when Mayfield has another mediocre season, and we end up with 7 or 8 wins next year, the following season, Mayfield can compete with the kid we draft this year for the job. If Mayfield wins, then after the 2025 offseason, we fire Licht because he would then have been 0-4 in looking for a franchise QB, and bring in a new GM to see if he can do it. If the kid wins the job, then we're on the road to progress.

Trask was a wasted pick in 2021 and it was proven when Mayfield was given the job in August. As far as I'm concerned, he should be released during the offseason and a veteran backup should be brought in to replace him.

I don't disagree that the Bucs will in fact, screw up and give Mayfield a deal. I just hope they don't compound that mistake by making it a bad deal... and even worse, not looking to replace him in April. Like I said, 2 yr deal at $20-$25M AAV and drafting a QB in round 1 is the right move. To me, anything else is a mistake.
I disagree with you a bit here.

You say (and probably rightly) that Trask was a wasted pick. But at the same time, you advocate for us drafting a quarterback with a high selection when our guy is already in the building. One could argue that this would be repeating the same circumstances that led to the Bucs drafting Trask, adding a dude who rides pine instead of someone who can provide meaningful snaps.

"But Cheb, what if we draft our QBotF and just sit him for a year or several, like Pat Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love?" I mean I guess. But wouldn't a new GM want to get HIS guy and not some leftover who couldn't even get on the field?

I dunno. I can see both sides here. It's just part of me thinks that if we are going to go all-in on Mayfield, maybe using that first round selection for an edge rusher or a left guard or a safety to improve the TEAM would be better than using/wasting it on a guy whose largest responsibility would be to make sure Baker's coffee is warm.
No, I'm advocating that Licht not pass up a guy who he believes is a franchise QB. The Trask pick was stupid because Licht drafted the best QB on the board at #64, that's not necessarily taking a guy he believes is a franchise QB. I'd contend that NO GM ever passes on a guy who they "believe" is a franchise QB, the first chance they get (obviously, assuming that they need one). If Licht thought Trask was going to be a franchise QB, he should've taken him at #32, or even traded up to make sure he got him. He did neither, which tells me that he only took Trask as a shot in the dark.

Simply, if don't have a franchise QB (and you're being honest with yourself), and you see one on the board (or within distance), you should draft or make every attempt to go get him, period. I don't even care if he's not the next the next Pat Mahomes or whatever super star QB you want to throw out there... if you believe in a kid, that he's a franchise QB, you don't pass up on him. I'd rather them take the shot at a kid and miss, then to strike out looking.

The mistake would be to go "all-in" on Mayfield, he's a stop gap, nothing more. He is NOT a franchise QB. I understand we need to bring him back because free agency starts in March and the draft is 6 (7?), weeks later. The right move is to keep Mayfield around just long enough to give the team a fighting chance at being respectable, not going "all-in". Like I said, a 2 year deal for back end starter money is all that should be offered. Honestly, if he turns it down, I think he doesn't get any other offers. He had a year similar to two other years and last year, no one wanted to give him starter money... no one's going to do it this year either.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by GoldenBudda »

CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:49 am Some like to focus on a few stats that imply that Baker Mayfield was a top 10 QB. Let's look a little deeper at his numbers:

League "Averages":
Comp%: 65.13%
Yards/Att: 7.12
TD%: 4.39%
Int%: 1.87%

Baker Mayfield had 566 pass attempts last year. If he were a league average passer, his final stat line would look like this:
369 - 566 / 65.13% (obviously) / 4039 yards / 25 TD / 11 Int / 92.7 passer rating.

What was Mayfield's actual stat line:
364 - 566 / 64.31% / 4044 / 28 / 10 / 94.6

WOW!!! Who's shocked that overall, Mayfield's numbers are around league average? I know I'm not.

In terms are yards per attempt, Mayfield ranked 15th
Passing success rate: 20th
Yards gained per comp: 15th
Yards per game: 13th
Rating: 12th
QBR: 19th
Net Yards per pass attempt: 18th

Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... assing.htm

Basically, a league average QB with some counting numbers boosted by having the 7th most pass attempts in the league. It resulted in the 20th best scoring offense and a 9-win season. So... the epitome, of "average". There's no reason to give him any kind of deal that extends past 2025 or have any guaranteed money. Nor should he prevent us from drafting (even trading up to draft), a QB in the 1st round this year. A 2-yr $45M deal should be enough. I don't envision anyone on the open market offering more than that. If they do, let them have him. It's akin to doing something foolish like giving Dak Prescott $40M AAV.
So, Baker has nearly average numbers, but more TD's and less INT's than average. Safe to say he's slightly above average, right? Maybe not top-10, but surely top-15. Assuming we agree on that, I don't understand how you would prefer to roll with a 1st round rookie, or Trask.

Baker won a playoff game this year. Did you know that since 2013 exactly 3 first round pick rookie QB's have won a playoff game? The math isn't looking great for rolling with a rookie, and my gut is telling me Trask wouldn't be any better.

The fact is, a QB who can win NFL games is going to cost a lot of money. That's just reality. $100M guaranteed for a NFL QB is routine. We just need to adjust to a world where Daniel Jones, who also won a playoff game last year, makes $40M. This is the new reality. Without an above average QB, you're going nowhere fast in the NFL
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Doctor »

Lamar Jackson on line 1.

It's funny that Cannon and I are on the same side but for completely different reasons. He's 100% a savior zealot and believes you just pick him and go all in on him. So much so he's even dismissed every non first round QB as not true franchise QBs, which is wild.

I'm the opposite and believe smart play is to hedge your bets and do the best with where ever things fall.


I also don't subscribe to hindsight nonsense. I judge moves based and what we could see from the moment. People sheepishly say "they aren't paid to be a GM" but then spout off how "truly good GMs" would've/should've passed on Winston/Mariotia because of their holy "GM scouting eye" or whatever are full of it.
Likewise, Trask was a great and thoughtful pick despite the fact that the NFL didn't break his way to make him one. Would Russell Wilson not vetoing to go to Philly had made the selection of Hurts years earlier all of the sudden "bad"? That's nonsense. The NFL is constant moving parts and you're always making decisions for an ever changing future. Trask was a great fit for an Arians offense and was drafted to be the successor to Brady when Brady retired... which he did.... literally 99% of everything went to plan. But guess what? There are always moving pieces. Brady gets divorced, unretires, retired Bruce and the landscape changes.
Now the landscape put two great guys in front of us, Canales and Baker, and guess what? OBP took it and it worked out really well. Now Canales is a HC and Baker is a FA, the landscape shifted again. And we'll have to look at the all the pieces and decide what to match together for the best results.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by CannonFire »

GoldenBudda wrote: Mon Jan 29, 2024 2:55 pm
CannonFire wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:49 am Some like to focus on a few stats that imply that Baker Mayfield was a top 10 QB. Let's look a little deeper at his numbers:

League "Averages":
Comp%: 65.13%
Yards/Att: 7.12
TD%: 4.39%
Int%: 1.87%

Baker Mayfield had 566 pass attempts last year. If he were a league average passer, his final stat line would look like this:
369 - 566 / 65.13% (obviously) / 4039 yards / 25 TD / 11 Int / 92.7 passer rating.

What was Mayfield's actual stat line:
364 - 566 / 64.31% / 4044 / 28 / 10 / 94.6

WOW!!! Who's shocked that overall, Mayfield's numbers are around league average? I know I'm not.

In terms are yards per attempt, Mayfield ranked 15th
Passing success rate: 20th
Yards gained per comp: 15th
Yards per game: 13th
Rating: 12th
QBR: 19th
Net Yards per pass attempt: 18th

Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... assing.htm

Basically, a league average QB with some counting numbers boosted by having the 7th most pass attempts in the league. It resulted in the 20th best scoring offense and a 9-win season. So... the epitome, of "average". There's no reason to give him any kind of deal that extends past 2025 or have any guaranteed money. Nor should he prevent us from drafting (even trading up to draft), a QB in the 1st round this year. A 2-yr $45M deal should be enough. I don't envision anyone on the open market offering more than that. If they do, let them have him. It's akin to doing something foolish like giving Dak Prescott $40M AAV.
So, Baker has nearly average numbers, but more TD's and less INT's than average. Safe to say he's slightly above average, right? Maybe not top-10, but surely top-15. Assuming we agree on that, I don't understand how you would prefer to roll with a 1st round rookie, or Trask.

Baker won a playoff game this year. Did you know that since 2013 exactly 3 first round pick rookie QB's have won a playoff game? The math isn't looking great for rolling with a rookie, and my gut is telling me Trask wouldn't be any better.

The fact is, a QB who can win NFL games is going to cost a lot of money. That's just reality. $100M guaranteed for a NFL QB is routine. We just need to adjust to a world where Daniel Jones, who also won a playoff game last year, makes $40M. This is the new reality. Without an above average QB, you're going nowhere fast in the NFL
Let's assume I live in the world of pretend and I agree that he's slightly better than average, but he is NOT, in ANY WAY "above average". I don't recall EVER saying we should roll with Trask. The fact that he couldn't beat out Mayfield or even replace him when we were 3-5, tells me that he can't be a starter in the NFL. There's really no reason why he should even be on the roster next year. Why would I roll with a rookie? Because I know I can't win by overpaying a "slightly better than average" QB, who will only be here a maximum of 3 years. I'd rather take a shot with a guy who can become a 15-year+ franchise QB.

Baker was a 6-year veteran. Why are you holding him to a standard of a rookie? Most rookies go to bad teams, they're generally taken in the top 10. THAT's why they don't win playoff games, it's because they didn't get there. We have a good team. If we trade up to get a rookie, he's going to a playoff caliber team. He's not starting in the hole that many rookies start in.

Yes, I know that having a QB who can win games in the NFL is going to cost a lot of money. What I don't get behind is pissing away a lot of money on a guy that you know you can't win with. Just because the Giants are doing it, it doesn't mean we should. If you're best friend says he can fly and prove it by jumping off a bridge, are you going to do it too?

Correct, if you don't have an "above average QB", you're going nowhere... I completely agree with you. We don't have an above average QB. That's why I suggest we try to find one in the draft.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Phantom »

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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Doctor »




That's pro bowler Baker Mayfield to you.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Sdbucs »

Get Baker to sign a team friendly deal then immediately package him and whatever else and trade up in the draft
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by CannonFire »

Doctor wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:06 am


That's pro bowler Baker Mayfield to you.
I remember when people were all aflutter when Winston made it his rookie season. Good times. Good times. Winfield didn't make the Pro Bowl... that's all you need to know about the validity of the Pro Bowl.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Grahamburn »

Sdbucs wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:41 am Get Baker to sign a team friendly deal then immediately package him and whatever else and trade up in the draft
Cutting edge next level brilliant stuff here.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Bootz »

Grahamburn wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2024 11:39 am
Sdbucs wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:41 am Get Baker to sign a team friendly deal then immediately package him and whatever else and trade up in the draft
Typical Madden game brilliance
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Doctor »

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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Snake »

The arm and accuracy was never in question. As a human jugs machine, he has few rivals.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Phantom »

League sources believe Baker Mayfield is going to get paid "a lot more than most expect", at least with a $40 million annual salary.

Via Sportskeeda insider Tony Pauline.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Bootz »

@acmillis you have an ally

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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

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He is better than average, but he is not at the level of Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. What do you expect,Bootz. If you think he's a great quaterback then SUPER . No one gives the shit
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

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Shaun King is right.
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by BuccaNOLEer »

Phantom wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:58 am He is better than average, but he is not at the level of Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. What do you expect,Bootz. If you think he's a great quaterback then SUPER . No one gives the shit
A lot of teams have won the Super Bowl with better than average but not elite QB play. Including our beloved Bucs. Brad Johnson was not elite by any means.
Snake wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:06 am Shaun King is right.
A bit off topic but is that the same Shaun King who was our starting QB at one point?
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Bootz »

Phantom wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:58 am He is better than average, but he is not at the level of Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. What do you expect,Bootz. If you think he's a great quaterback then SUPER . No one gives the shit
You better stop harassing me! Or else I'll report you! :!:
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Phantom »

BuccaNOLEer wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:09 am
Phantom wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:58 am He is better than average, but he is not at the level of Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. What do you expect,Bootz. If you think he's a great quaterback then SUPER . No one gives the shit
A lot of teams have won the Super Bowl with better than average but not elite QB play. Including our beloved Bucs. Brad Johnson was not elite by any means.
Snake wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:06 am Shaun King is right.
A bit off topic but is that the same Shaun King who was our starting QB at one point?
You are right , but though it doesn't happen often
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by BuccaNOLEer »

Phantom wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:25 am
BuccaNOLEer wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:09 am

A lot of teams have won the Super Bowl with better than average but not elite QB play. Including our beloved Bucs. Brad Johnson was not elite by any means.



A bit off topic but is that the same Shaun King who was our starting QB at one point?
You are right , but though it doesn't happen often
More often than you think. Matter of fact, you've had it several times since they went to expanded playoffs

1990- Giants Jeff Hostetler
1991- Redskins Mark Rypien
2000- Ravens Trent Dilfer
2002 Bucs Brad Johnson
2007 Giants Eli Manning
2011 Giants Eli Manning
2012 Ravens Joe Flacco
2017 Eagles Nick Foles
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Re: Baker Mayfield Contract

Post by Snake »

23% of the time going back 34 years.
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