Tampa Bay Buccaneers Official 2023 Off Season Thread

[Nobody]

I feel like there is category error happening here. The draft isn’t a crapshoot. Its not close to a crapshoot (just like Hold ‘Em isn’t about “luck” and “bad beats” as the overwhelming signal of play).

The reality is that Front Offices and NFL Scouting Regimes (a) follow the Pareto Distribution just like everything else in our world and in the universe at large. Consequently, (b) most of these people are average-ish at their job with (c) a vanishingly small number of them being savants.

So, (i) fill your organization with as many of the rare savants as possible, (ii) ensure they have the most influence on the process and its outputs, (iii) don’t have too many cooks in the kitchen, (iv) don’t play politics/nepotism (let your derp regional scout/coach friend have more say on a primary pick because “friend” or whatever).

EDIT - My guess is most of these regimes have waaaaaay too many employees, way over complicate the process, and have too many voices so their process trends toward dilution of focus or incoherence.

We wouldn't have a Super Bowl if we hadn't done #4 (Arians), just saying...

But to expand on that, it seems Arians had a lot of say in the picks along with Bowles. How do you feel about that?

1) What work is "just saying..." doing here?

2) So is your first paragraph a claim that Licht hired Arians exclusively on the back of nepotism and we won the Super Bowl on the back of that nepotism (rather than a confluence of factors including Tom Brady and Gronk/AB coming in downstream of that and absolutely major hits on our first two picks that year)? Or are you saying something else? If you are saying that, even if so, we're pivoting to hiring coaches based on nepotism, not scouting regime/pick nepotism.

3) What happens in front offices generally and draft day specifically is pretty opaque to me. I feel confident in a total milquetoast take of Arians and Bowles certainly had their say on picks, but I don't feel tremendously confident in saying how far that goes. Here are the picks I would say the Bucs "hit" on during the Arians/Bowles regime of 2019 to 2022. "Hit" is anywhere from "solid for where drafted" to "out of the freaking park."

2019: Dean (3rd), Edwards (3rd), Nelson (4th), Miller (6th). Great starting CB (though got dinged just as one would expect). Sub-package Safety who transitioned to starter who was up and down his first and last year but was very good in the Super Bowl window in 2020 and 2021. Solid rotational Edge player and WR with enough juice on his one-trick to give the offense a different look when he's on the field and convert huge plays; for a 4th round Edge that is solid and for a 6th round WR, that is fantastic RoI.

2020: Wirfs (1st), WInfield (2nd). Nothing needs to be said here. Top 3 picks in Licht's tenure.

2021: ...Hainsey (3rd)? Redshirt year 1. Anchored one of the worst OLs in the league last year though he was solid enough at Center despite a train-wreck on his left for half the year. His skillset is tailor made for an Outside Zone scheme so I think where he struggled in our Gap/Duo-heavy scheme last year, he'll ascend at iOL in this footwork, technique, lateral movement-intensive scheme.

2019 we were overflowing in draft capital. 2020 we were middling. 2021 we were bottom of the league (though I'll point to KC for what is possible with "bottom of the league" draft capital).

Overall, I would say 3 x Home Runs (Dean, Wirfs, Winfield), 3 x Hits, 1 x TBD but trending toward Hit. However much Arians/Bowles signal is in that, I don't know. However Arians/Bowles signal is in the rest of it, I also don't know.

[MJW]

Gonna point this out:

You know those "You don't need high picks to be great, there are other ways" arguments? The Chiefs, The Patriots, etc? Here's the thing - the "other ways" seem to involve "hiring a Hall Of Fame coach." Like...you don't need high picks! Just hire the next Bill Belichick or Andy Reid! It's so simple!

That's...not a plan? And it's not anything you can really exert any meaningful control over. You have no way of increasing your odds of hiring the next Bill Belichick. You DO, however, have the ability to increase your odds of drafting the next Hall Of Famer. The way you do that is maximizing your opportunities to draft him.

[uscbucsfan1]

Gonna point this out:

You know those "You don't need high picks to be great, there are other ways" arguments? The Chiefs, The Patriots, etc? Here's the thing - the "other ways" seem to involve "hiring a Hall Of Fame coach." Like...you don't need high picks! Just hire the next Bill Belichick or Andy Reid! It's so simple!

That's...not a plan? And it's not anything you can really exert any meaningful control over. You have no way of increasing your odds of hiring the next Bill Belichick. You DO, however, have the ability to increase your odds of drafting the next Hall Of Famer. The way you do that is maximizing your opportunities to draft him.

That fits the Patriots, but the Chiefs are probably the best drafting team in the NFL and consistently draft 3-4 starters each year, but both of those teams also have all time great QBs to help the coach and cover weaknesses.

[kaimaru]

We wouldn't have a Super Bowl if we hadn't done #4 (Arians), just saying...

But to expand on that, it seems Arians had a lot of say in the picks along with Bowles. How do you feel about that?

1) What work is "just saying..." doing here?

2) So is your first paragraph a claim that Licht hired Arians exclusively on the back of nepotism and we won the Super Bowl on the back of that nepotism (rather than a confluence of factors including Tom Brady and Gronk/AB coming in downstream of that and absolutely major hits on our first two picks that year)? Or are you saying something else? If you are saying that, even if so, we're pivoting to hiring coaches based on nepotism, not scouting regime/pick nepotism.

3) What happens in front offices generally and draft day specifically is pretty opaque to me. I feel confident in a total milquetoast take of Arians and Bowles certainly had their say on picks, but I don't feel tremendously confident in saying how far that goes. Here are the picks I would say the Bucs "hit" on during the Arians/Bowles regime of 2019 to 2022. "Hit" is anywhere from "solid for where drafted" to "out of the freaking park."

2019: Dean (3rd), Edwards (3rd), Nelson (4th), Miller (6th). Great starting CB (though got dinged just as one would expect). Sub-package Safety who transitioned to starter who was up and down his first and last year but was very good in the Super Bowl window in 2020 and 2021. Solid rotational Edge player and WR with enough juice on his one-trick to give the offense a different look when he's on the field and convert huge plays; for a 4th round Edge that is solid and for a 6th round WR, that is fantastic RoI.

2020: Wirfs (1st), WInfield (2nd). Nothing needs to be said here. Top 3 picks in Licht's tenure.

2021: ...Hainsey (3rd)? Redshirt year 1. Anchored one of the worst OLs in the league last year though he was solid enough at Center despite a train-wreck on his left for half the year. His skillset is tailor made for an Outside Zone scheme so I think where he struggled in our Gap/Duo-heavy scheme last year, he'll ascend at iOL in this footwork, technique, lateral movement-intensive scheme.

2019 we were overflowing in draft capital. 2020 we were middling. 2021 we were bottom of the league (though I'll point to KC for what is possible with "bottom of the league" draft capital).

Overall, I would say 3 x Home Runs (Dean, Wirfs, Winfield), 3 x Hits, 1 x TBD but trending toward Hit. However much Arians/Bowles signal is in that, I don't know. However Arians/Bowles signal is in the rest of it, I also don't know.

I know you don't know me, so maybe I should have use /s instead. I in no means meant to get a response for the Arians part. Also, it clearly had nothing to do with scouting.

The second part was when they drafted in 2020, Arians was shown at home drinking with his cell next to him talking about how excited he was about this pick or that pick. It just felt like he either had input into the draft or he was convinced by Licht what players he should be excited if we got them. We all know Trask is 100% an Arians pick. The year Bowles is promoted we have a balanced draft for offense and defense. This year a heavy defense draft. I really get the feeling Licht learns towards the HC preferences. But that's just my opinion. I guess I should have asked what would you think about a GM catering to the current HC instead of building the best all around team?

[kaimaru]

Gonna point this out:

You know those "You don't need high picks to be great, there are other ways" arguments? The Chiefs, The Patriots, etc? Here's the thing - the "other ways" seem to involve "hiring a Hall Of Fame coach." Like...you don't need high picks! Just hire the next Bill Belichick or Andy Reid! It's so simple!

That's...not a plan? And it's not anything you can really exert any meaningful control over. You have no way of increasing your odds of hiring the next Bill Belichick. You DO, however, have the ability to increase your odds of drafting the next Hall Of Famer. The way you do that is maximizing your opportunities to draft him.

I'm not surprised you ignored my last post. So your opinion is this is: Get the #1 pick even in a year no consensus franchise QB. Give him 2 years, if he's not trending to be your franchise QB, don't pick up his 5th year. Year 3, if you're 90% he's not it, tank year for and repeat ad nausem until you get that 1 in 30+ hits at a franchise QB? Would that be an acceptable game plan for you? Get a new GM and QB on the same cycle?

[Rocker]

Not going to read through 50 pages of content, but am I the only one who thinks Canales was brought in to replace Bowles?

This supposition is entirely based on if his offense can be at least mid-tier given who we will be trotting out behind center.

So Dirk Koetter 2.0 then?

Tell me this franchise isn't that predictable. There's also no indication a guy who's in his 1st year as an NFL OC & playcaller is ready or even capable of taking the helm at HC.

I’m just reading the tea leaves. Could be wild speculation, could be five-head forecasting. If the current squad sucks hard, like many forecast, I don’t know of any teams that would trust a defensive coach with a new, highly drafted QB.

[Bootz]

So Dirk Koetter 2.0 then?

Tell me this franchise isn't that predictable. There's also no indication a guy who's in his 1st year as an NFL OC & playcaller is ready or even capable of taking the helm at HC.

I’m just reading the tea leaves. Could be wild speculation, could be five-head forecasting. If the current squad sucks hard, like many forecast, I don’t know of any teams that would trust a defensive coach with a new, highly drafted QB.

Uhh yea, you're 100% telling the story of Dirk Koetter/Jameis Winston here.

[Grahamburn]

We understand the value of the #1 pick. The part you're missing, or being obtuse about, is that there are other paths to the ultimate goal of winning championships. Paths that don't include perpetually losing.

That being said, it looks like it should be a great year to be drafting early if that's the way our season plays out.

Yes, there are other paths. And all of them are easier to pursue with more resources.

Then why are so many of the exact same teams picking in the top 10 every year?

Your opinion is operating in a vacuum without acknowledging how dysfunctional your organization has to be to have those resources.

I don’t want the Bucs to revert to that level of dysfunction.

[Doctor]

(BTW, if your GM can't get the right player with the #1 overall pick, guess what? He's even less likely to get the right player with a later pick. Again, for reasons so obvious it would be embarrassing to have to explain them.)

Except this is bs.

Even first are ugly. See the long lists of "very obvious" #1 picks that have failed. Our own hiesman winning national champion included. Legit only Luck and Burrow the only successes in the last 20 years.

JL, and everyone, missed on the #1 pick, either QB option. Yet he nailed the fuck out of the next two future SB champs.

Looking over past draft classes the other day and it just stunned me how many were just bad. So many huge dead zones where the best selection even with 100% hindsight would've been a comical reach. So many drafts where a GM in these zones had no chance of hitting on their first rounders for years.

Caleb may be a good QB. Even a great one. But he isn't anything new. We've heard this story.
And just as likely it's a later QB that is the future MVP, Baker - Lamar style.

[Phantom]

Yeah, I agree on everything you said, Doctor.We have heard this story bunch of times…

[Babeinbucland]

(BTW, if your GM can't get the right player with the #1 overall pick, guess what? He's even less likely to get the right player with a later pick. Again, for reasons so obvious it would be embarrassing to have to explain them.)

Except this is bs.

Even first are ugly. See the long lists of "very obvious" #1 picks that have failed. Our own hiesman winning national champion included. Legit only Luck and Burrow the only successes in the last 20 years.

JL, and everyone, missed on the #1 pick, either QB option. Yet he nailed the fuck out of the next two future SB champs.

Looking over past draft classes the other day and it just stunned me how many were just bad. So many huge dead zones where the best selection even with 100% hindsight would've been a comical reach. So many drafts where a GM in these zones had no chance of hitting on their first rounders for years.

Caleb may be a good QB. Even a great one. But he isn't anything new. We've heard this story.
And just as likely it's a later QB that is the future MVP, Baker - Lamar style.

100% and of course this is because when you have elite college players who attempt to play in the mega verse of the NFL all of their weak spots are exposed, magnified and ultimately preyed upon. Additionally, The mental game of elite college players is often not enough to compensate for the culture shock of the speed and talent at the NFL level. As well, there is not really a tried and true way to prepare for those three aspects (Speed, level of talent and mental acuity) of the professional game. So ultimately, ONLY those that can acclimate and thrive within the realm of those three aspects will succeed. There is not enough first round picks that rise to that 3 prong dominance. But interestingly enough sometimes a 6th rounder can.

[Sdbucs]

We need a quarterback.

We are currently projected to have just over a 1% chance of winning the super bowl, 12% chance of winning the division.

If you hit on a QB in the draft your team is a contender for at least 5 years. The Chiefs under Mahomes have a 13% chance of winning the superbowl, 63% chance of winning the division.

A 1200% increase in superbowl odds and a 360% increase in division winning odds, if you hit on a QB in the draft.

The highest rated QB since Luck (probably higher rated, actually) is coming to the draft next year.

The % chance of hitting on a “generational” QB at 1st overall is ?, the % chance of hitting on a QB 1st overall is ?

What % is it and what % does it need to be for people to side with pursuing the QB over pursuing the 1% odds of winning the superbowl?

Because until a team has a competent QB they should be chomping at the bit to land one.

[Selmon Rules]

I'd still rather be competitive year in and year out. Being competitive means you are pretty solid everywhere and need to get that one or two players to get over the hump

Much better than sucking with holes from one end of the roster to the other

That’s all fine and all, if you aren’t actively hurting yourself to do so. Continuing to play the dead cap game in an attempt to be competitive is not something I am thrilled about our offseason. Especially since the moves we made probably won’t end up making us competitive either.

Have no desire to burn next year's salary cap to just be competitive this year. The only time you really want to consider that is when you can legitimate contenders.

[Grahamburn]

We need a quarterback.

We are currently projected to have just over a 1% chance of winning the super bowl, 12% chance of winning the division.

If you hit on a QB in the draft your team is a contender for at least 5 years. The Chiefs under Mahomes have a 13% chance of winning the superbowl, 63% chance of winning the division.

A 1200% increase in superbowl odds and a 360% increase in division winning odds, if you hit on a QB in the draft.

The highest rated QB since Luck (probably higher rated, actually) is coming to the draft next year.

The % chance of hitting on a “generational” QB at 1st overall is ?, the % chance of hitting on a QB 1st overall is ?

What % is it and what % does it need to be for people to side with pursuing the QB over pursuing the 1% odds of winning the superbowl?

Because until a team has a competent QB they should be chomping at the bit to land one.

Was Jameis generational? Because his numbers in his first year were right on par with Williams' heading into their final college seasons.

Not saying they don't need a quarterback. They might. Just saying you don't have to have the #1 pick to find that guy.

Even your example bears that out. The Chiefs have been pretty consistently good for a long time. Before PM. Had they not been maybe they end up with a different player than Mahomes (maybe they take Myles Garrett instead?). What the Chiefs are is a great organization from top to bottom that identified Mahomes and moved up aggressively to take him. With Alex Smith already on their roster.

Jason Licht could have done that. He took OJ Howard instead. Because he'd already invested the #1 pick in Jameis Winston.

[Naismith]

I think there's a lot of overthinking it. You need great QB play and a coaching staff that can coach up QBs and gameplay players open. Once you have those, you're a Super Bowl contender every year. Without great QB play, you just don't have a chance and you need a plan to get a great QB.

[Sdbucs]

We need a quarterback.

We are currently projected to have just over a 1% chance of winning the super bowl, 12% chance of winning the division.

If you hit on a QB in the draft your team is a contender for at least 5 years. The Chiefs under Mahomes have a 13% chance of winning the superbowl, 63% chance of winning the division.

A 1200% increase in superbowl odds and a 360% increase in division winning odds, if you hit on a QB in the draft.

The highest rated QB since Luck (probably higher rated, actually) is coming to the draft next year.

The % chance of hitting on a “generational” QB at 1st overall is ?, the % chance of hitting on a QB 1st overall is ?

What % is it and what % does it need to be for people to side with pursuing the QB over pursuing the 1% odds of winning the superbowl?

Because until a team has a competent QB they should be chomping at the bit to land one.

Was Jameis generational?

No

[Grahamburn]

Was Jameis generational?

No

Right, but he was considered that heading into his last season at FSU. Look up Jameis' freshman season heading into his walk year. It looks just like the one Williams' just had.

[kaimaru]

Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, the team’s first-rounder, recorded 7.5 sacks last year at Pittsburgh and had 14.5 over the last two seasons.

“He was a really fun player in the fall – he’s a great, fun player to watch when you’re a scout,” Bucs vice president of player personnel John Spytek said. “Then you kind of get done with it and you’re like, ‘That was awesome – the energy he plays with, how disruptive he is, the effort he gives play after play, how athletic he is. Oh boy … he’s six-foot, 275 pounds.’ So, you kind of mark it and you’re like, ‘Alright, well, if our coaches will like him then we’ve got a player here. So, we obviously had great meetings with Todd [Bowles] and his staff and they’re like, ‘Oh, we’ve got a great plan for him – we love this kid.’

“It’s hard to find inside pass rushers in this league – it’s really hard. Todd has been after a three technique like Calijah that can really run for a long time. I’m sure he’d prefer that Calijah were 310 pounds or something like that, but at the same time, he’s undeterred. Him, Kacy [Rodgers] and Coach [Larry] Foote are undeterred by his size. So, after a lot of talk and a lot of evaluation, we weren’t so much concerned about his size – it was more about what he can do, and he did it at an extremely high level for years at Pitt. We kind of love the kid, the story – he’s been kind of counted out or underappreciated for his entire career and he just keeps proving people wrong.”

YaYa Diaby, an outside linebacker drafted in the third round, led Louisville with nine sacks. At 6-foot-3, 263 pounds, he has the speed-to-power element to his game that a more finesse pass rusher like Joe Tryon-Shoyinka possesses.

“The 4.52 [40-yard dash] I think jumps off of the tape, but to me, the first thing you notice about him is the relentlessness that he plays with,” Spytek said. “Guys that are pass rushers that run a 4.52, if they’re not going to chase people into the open field, you’re just never going to feel that speed. There is a play that showed up in some of the highlights where he is on the left and he kind of dips inside against Florida State, while I think No. 21 is trying to run a reverse, and he bends and runs the guys down and tackles him before he can turn the edge.

“You don’t see that a lot, and it starts with the fact that he is willing to give the effort to put himself in that position to make the tackle. Because he is, then you’re like, well he can really run too. Then you watch him over and over again. He plays 100 miles per hour every play and plays with a passion and an energy that a lot of the great pass rushers have. He has lots of technique to work on, but he loves ball, he has been through a lot of adversity. He showed you he loved football and he just happened to run a 4.52, as well, which is pretty cool. Todd is excited about that.”

Jose Ramirez, who was selected in the sixth round out of Eastern Michigan, tallied 12 sacks to lead the Eagles. While he’s smaller at 6-foot-2, 242 pounds, Ramirez dominated the agility drills at the NFL Scouting Combine and wins with quickness – kind of like another Bucs edge rusher.

“Jose just has a feel to rush the passer,” Spytek said. “The more you watch, the more you appreciate – he just ends up around the quarterback a lot. I’m not comparing him to Shaq Barrett, but if I was, I’d say when I watched Shaq Barrett win the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year when I was a scout for Denver, he just grew on you and grew on you and grew on you the more you watched him because he was around the quarterback all the time.

“They both were their conference Defensive Players of the Year. They both were undersized. I’m not saying he is, but he reminds you of some of the things that Shaq did. Shaq isn’t a Von Miller athlete, or a Myles Garrett, but he’s highly rated in pressures throughout the last four or five seasons. I’m not saying Jose is going to be, but in college he was.”

https://www.pewterreport.com/srs-fab-5- ... pass-rush/

[Snake]

Lots of talk about the 4.52. I didn’t see it on the tape. But I’m not the professional.

[kaimaru]

“Guys that are pass rushers that run a 4.52, if they’re not going to chase people into the open field, you’re just never going to feel that speed.

if he's rushing and having to engage O linemen all the time, I suppose you wouldnt see it

[Snake]

“Guys that are pass rushers that run a 4.52, if they’re not going to chase people into the open field, you’re just never going to feel that speed.

if he's rushing and having to engage O linemen all the time, I suppose you wouldnt see it

I didn’t see the explosion, is what I meant.

[mdb1958]

But!

YaYa has a 1.51 ten yard split.

[mdb1958]

Kancey's ten yard is 1.58

[Snake]

But!

YaYa has a 1.51 ten yard split.

Yeah, and Vernon Gholston ran a 4.2 while wearing combat boots.

[Bootz]

if he's rushing and having to engage O linemen all the time, I suppose you wouldnt see it

I didn’t see the explosion, is what I meant.

I don't see it either.

[Selmon Rules]

I think there's a lot of overthinking it. You need great QB play and a coaching staff that can coach up QBs and gameplay players open. Once you have those, you're a Super Bowl contender every year. Without great QB play, you just don't have a chance and you need a plan to get a great QB.

If you can game plan receivers open, simply good QB play will do the trick. Great QB play makes it all better but it doesn't matter if you can't scheme players open and simply depend on great WR play also

[MJW]

(BTW, if your GM can't get the right player with the #1 overall pick, guess what? He's even less likely to get the right player with a later pick. Again, for reasons so obvious it would be embarrassing to have to explain them.)

Except this is bs.

Even first are ugly. See the long lists of "very obvious" #1 picks that have failed. Our own hiesman winning national champion included. Legit only Luck and Burrow the only successes in the last 20 years.

JL, and everyone, missed on the #1 pick, either QB option. Yet he nailed the fuck out of the next two future SB champs.

Looking over past draft classes the other day and it just stunned me how many were just bad. So many huge dead zones where the best selection even with 100% hindsight would've been a comical reach. So many drafts where a GM in these zones had no chance of hitting on their first rounders for years.

Caleb may be a good QB. Even a great one. But he isn't anything new. We've heard this story.
And just as likely it's a later QB that is the future MVP, Baker - Lamar style.

I'm going to say this as slowly and clearly as I possibly can:

This is not a matter of football. It is a matter of basic. logic.

If you have a good GM, you want to give him as many options as possible. Pretty straightforward.
The most possible options exist with...the #1 pick.
This is why it costs a boatload to acquire the #1 pick, and virtually nothing to acquire the #250 pick. Because the #250 pick offers 249 fewer options than the #1 pick does.

This is not a point for debate. This is not about Caleb Williams or Baker Mayfield. This is inescapable. basic. fucking. logic.

(And to finish the point, if you have a BAD GM, it doesn't matter WHAT picks you give him.)

[mdb1958]

But!

YaYa has a 1.51 ten yard split.

Yeah, and Vernon Gholston ran a 4.2 while wearing combat boots.

Draft picks need to be 4 years of positive. I guess you are thinking otherwise.

[Doctor]

Winston was every bit the textbook tank for savior.


And like most, he didn't pan out.

[Snake]

Winston was every bit the textbook tank for savior.


And like most, he didn't pan out.

Is Caleb Williams a better prospect than Winston was?

[Grahamburn]

Winston was every bit the textbook tank for savior.


And like most, he didn't pan out.

Is Caleb Williams a better prospect than Winston was?

People continue to act like he is, but I’ve posted their numbers in multiple threads now. In the year before their last the numbers are practically identical.

Now, who’s to say what Williams does this year? Jameis’ red flags flared up like genital warts that last season at FSU.

[Sdbucs]

No

Right, but he was considered that heading into his last season at FSU. Look up Jameis' freshman season heading into his walk year. It looks just like the one Williams' just had.

Stats =/= Skillset or talent

Jameis was a successful NCAA QB statwise. Like Johnny Manziel. Etc.

Just watch Caleb Williams play football. He's in a different tier.

Hell watch Jameis college game and watch Caleb, it's not even close.

[Doctor]

Winston was every bit the textbook tank for savior.


And like most, he didn't pan out.

Is Caleb Williams a better prospect than Winston was?

Not yet but he's on track to at least be on that same tier. We'll have to wait and see if he can hold on to the #1 spot during his final year.

In the modern era since the rookie wage scale there have only been four QBs to actually go into the season as "the guy to tank for" and still be there when the dust settles- Luck, Winston, Lawrence, and Young. If we want to cheat a little we can even include Bradford in there. Caleb might be the next, but it just as easily could be Maye or Harrison Jr going first overall next year. The others also had National Championships and/or Heismans on their resumes (except Luck). Caleb is very much in that boat.

However, you may be quick to notice all the saviors combine for exactly 0 Lombardis.

[MJW]

Winston was every bit the textbook tank for savior.


And like most, he didn't pan out.

Is Caleb Williams a better prospect than Winston was?

Believe it or not, I'm going to disagree with Doctor - he's far and away a better prospect.

Things now forgotten (or downplayed:)

- Winston had arguably the most verified (not rumored) character flags of any #1 pick in the modern era. Really only Cam Newton is in the discussion.
- Winston regressed badly his last year at FSU. Every stat got worse, a few dramatically.
- Winston threw 28 INTs in 27 games at FSU.
- Winston had questions about his commitment to fitness (remember the "fat on the beach" pictures?)
- Winston had questions about his decision making abilities, on and off the field.
- Winston had questions about his accuracy.

With Caleb Williams, as I type this:

- He's an inch, maybe two, shorter than ideal.
- He can be a little loose with the ball when he's looking to throw.
- He wasn't asked to make a ton of three and four read progressions. Some, not a ton.
- Like 90% of the quarterbacks now, he's been in shotgun 95% of his college career.

Like, it's not even close. As prospects, the gap between Williams and Winston is as vast as the one between, say, Bryce Young and Will Levis. I'm not comparing either guy to either guy. I'm just saying that very, very, very few GMs would even consider drafting Winston over Williams, much like Levis over Young. There might be SOMEONE. You might have some provocative talking heads claiming Winston will be the better pro. But on draft night there'd be zero drama.

[MJW]

Is Caleb Williams a better prospect than Winston was?

Not yet but he's on track to at least be on that same tier. We'll have to wait and see if he can hold on to the #1 spot during his final year.

In the modern era since the rookie wage scale there have only been four QBs to actually go into the season as "the guy to tank for" and still be there when the dust settles- Luck, Winston, Lawrence, and Young. If we want to cheat a little we can even include Bradford in there. Caleb might be the next, but it just as easily could be Maye or Harrison Jr going first overall next year. The others also had National Championships and/or Heismans on their resumes (except Luck). Caleb is very much in that boat.

However, you may be quick to notice all the saviors combine for exactly 0 Lombardis.

1) Tell you what - if Williams enters the draft and isn't selected #1, I'll request an IP ban. If he does, you do. Still feel good about that "just as easily" thing?

2) You're violently underrating Williams, and I say this as someone who has studied the draft, year in, year out, since 1994. Since I've been doing this - almost 30 years - I can think of maybe 5 QBs who I'm 100% confident would go ahead of him in a common draft (as prospects, coming out of college, with no foreknowledge of their NFL outcomes.) And they're all guys who are either Hall Of Famers or have at least been discussed in the room. He's a much better prospect than guys like Mayfield, Bradford, Winston (see above), Murray, and a host of others.

3) Out of 250 or so picks each year, plus UDFAs, QBs picked #1 overall have won roughly 30% of the Superbowls in NFL history (a number that would be higher if not for one single guy picked #199.) I don't know why you harp on this "rookie savior" nonsense - nobody actually thinks that way but you - but even your argument against them isn't sound.