Tampa Bay Buccaneers Official 2023 Off Season Thread

[Doctor]

Not yet but he's on track to at least be on that same tier. We'll have to wait and see if he can hold on to the #1 spot during his final year.

In the modern era since the rookie wage scale there have only been four QBs to actually go into the season as "the guy to tank for" and still be there when the dust settles- Luck, Winston, Lawrence, and Young. If we want to cheat a little we can even include Bradford in there. Caleb might be the next, but it just as easily could be Maye or Harrison Jr going first overall next year. The others also had National Championships and/or Heismans on their resumes (except Luck). Caleb is very much in that boat.

However, you may be quick to notice all the saviors combine for exactly 0 Lombardis.

1) Tell you what - if Williams enters the draft and isn't selected #1, I'll request an IP ban. If he does, you do. Still feel good about that "just as easily" thing?

2) You're violently underrating Williams, and I say this as someone who has studied the draft, year in, year out, since 1994. Since I've been doing this - almost 30 years - I can think of maybe 5 QBs who I'm 100% confident would go ahead of him in a common draft (as prospects, coming out of college, with no foreknowledge of their NFL outcomes.) And they're all guys who are either Hall Of Famers or have at least been discussed in the room. He's a much better prospect than guys like Mayfield, Bradford, Winston (see above), Murray, and a host of others.

3) Out of 250 or so picks each year, plus UDFAs, QBs picked #1 overall have won roughly 30% of the Superbowls in NFL history (a number that would be higher if not for one single guy picked #199.) I don't know why you harp on this "rookie savior" nonsense - nobody actually thinks that way but you - but even your argument against them isn't sound.

I don't know why you would think I would want you banned. I absolutely would not.

It's not against him. I like Caleb. If we do somehow end up with the first pick (and I had to choose today) I'd be all for taking him the same way I was Winston. As I said, he's in that boat with those other dudes as the clear presumptive #1. And he totally has the right to be.

I think you are violently overrating your ability to assess college QBs, especially one with one great year. Again, he is very talented, yes, and it would be a total disappointment if he had a bad year. But you are acting like it's an impossibility. Like he's already a lock for the HoF. Sorry, but that's just too much optimism for even me to swallow and that says a lot.

[GreatTimes]

If the play of the offensive line doesn't improve over how they played last year, it won't matter who the QB is.

[Sdbucs]

Winston wasn’t even consensus #1 overall. There was heated debate over Winston vs Mariota and many wanted the latter. The last “generational” QB prospect that was Andrew Luck, and outside of him retiring at a young age he would be considered a successful pick.

Just because a QB went #1 overall doesn’t mean he’s automatically graded on par with other #1 overall QBs. There wasn’t even a consensus #1 this year. Are we saying we expect Bryce Young to be on par with Andrew Luck as a prospect because he went #1 overall?

do people really tend to miss on those “generational” prospects? especially those taken #1 overall and especially those that are QBs?

[Grahamburn]

Right, but he was considered that heading into his last season at FSU. Look up Jameis' freshman season heading into his walk year. It looks just like the one Williams' just had.

Stats =/= Skillset or talent

Jameis was a successful NCAA QB statwise. Like Johnny Manziel. Etc.

Just watch Caleb Williams play football. He's in a different tier.

Hell watch Jameis college game and watch Caleb, it's not even close.

I have. Jameis looked all world his first season at FSU. Prototypical size. Arm strength. Swagger. Leadership qualities. National Championship. Won the Heisman. Etc.

My point is many posters here are talking about or hoping for or wanting to not play well enough this year so the Bucs are in a position to draft Williams. Or Maye. (Nobody has really mentioned Maye, but he’d be in the conversation). That’s great, but Williams or Maye may regress as well. Just like Jameis did.

Maybe those two guys end up being Winston and Mariota?

Recency bias tells you they aren’t or won’t be. But, you don’t know they aren’t or won’t be. They might be.

“Williams (and Maye) are in another tier!” “Hell, just watch them play!” Right?

Point is, you don’t know. You say you do, but you don’t.

You get what you tank for.

[Grahamburn]

@Doctor and I are on the same page here.

“Guys to tank for” is a good baseline.

I think our point is we don’t know if Williams is that guy to tank for and prefer not to hope for a tanked season to get him. Others think he is and do.

A lot of people thought Jameis was until that last disaster season at FSU. I don’t know that we went into the season with the intention to tank for him, but they did late in the season, and they got 5 more years of misery.

[Doctor]

Winston wasn’t even consensus #1 overall. There was heated debate over Winston vs Mariota and many wanted the latter. The last “generational” QB prospect that was Andrew Luck, and outside of him retiring at a young age he would be considered a successful pick.

Just because a QB went #1 overall doesn’t mean he’s automatically graded on par with other #1 overall QBs. There wasn’t even a consensus #1 this year. Are we saying we expect Bryce Young to be on par with Andrew Luck as a prospect because he went #1 overall?

do people really tend to miss on those “generational” prospects? especially those taken #1 overall and especially those that are QBs?

Yes and no. On this board there was "a heated debate", just like on the Panthers board there was for Stroud, and even the Colts had RG3 truthers. But outside those small spaces, it was pretty clear.

The irony is that even the "debated alternatives" were busts. Don't even get me started on the famed 2018 class.

[Bootz]

Winston wasn’t even consensus #1 overall. There was heated debate over Winston vs Mariota and many wanted the latter. The last “generational” QB prospect that was Andrew Luck, and outside of him retiring at a young age he would be considered a successful pick.

Just because a QB went #1 overall doesn’t mean he’s automatically graded on par with other #1 overall QBs. There wasn’t even a consensus #1 this year. Are we saying we expect Bryce Young to be on par with Andrew Luck as a prospect because he went #1 overall?

do people really tend to miss on those “generational” prospects? especially those taken #1 overall and especially those that are QBs?

Nationwide Winston was absolutely the consensus #1 pick. That debate happened here and here alone.

[These Are The Days]

It doesn't matter how good Williams is if we're just gonna sit there and coddle him like we did to Winston. Winston walked into the building for the first time to collective applause and when he made the same dumbass mistakes week in and week out, the coaching staff defended him with "He's still our QB" and everyone else raved about what a fantastic person he was. He never got better because no one challenged him.

It was never a talent issue. It was coaches who wouldn't knock off their bullshit along with a guy who wouldn't knock off his bullshit

[Doctor]

That's the case for every QB, every team, every time. People make it seem like "being the next Patrick Mahomes" is something that exists in a vacuum completely ignoring the critical component of being drafted by the next Andry Reid.

[Snake]

Processing the game post-snap is talent. Ball placement is talent.

[GreatTimes]

Processing the game post-snap is talent. Ball placement is talent.

Add pre-snap to that list. A QB has to assess what the defensive scheme is before the snap and decide whether or not to audible. That is where Winston failed, both pre and post snap processing.

[MJW]

That's the case for every QB, every team, every time. People make it seem like "being the next Patrick Mahomes" is something that exists in a vacuum completely ignoring the critical component of being drafted by the next Andry Reid.

"You don't need to draft a great QB, just hire Andy Reid!"

[MJW]

@Doctor and I are on the same page here.

“Guys to tank for” is a good baseline.

I think our point is we don’t know if Williams is that guy to tank for and prefer not to hope for a tanked season to get him. Others think he is and do.

A lot of people thought Jameis was until that last disaster season at FSU. I don’t know that we went into the season with the intention to tank for him, but they did late in the season, and they got 5 more years of misery.

Again, what is the definition of "tank" here?

[Grahamburn]

@Doctor and I are on the same page here.

“Guys to tank for” is a good baseline.

I think our point is we don’t know if Williams is that guy to tank for and prefer not to hope for a tanked season to get him. Others think he is and do.

A lot of people thought Jameis was until that last disaster season at FSU. I don’t know that we went into the season with the intention to tank for him, but they did late in the season, and they got 5 more years of misery.

Again, what is the definition of "tank" here?

Lose as many regular season games as necessary to ensure the #1 pick.

Your assessment of this off-season, roster, and cap situation gives this team very little chance to win a championship. That’s pretty clear in your posts. It’s pretty unlikely with Bowles and Mayfield/Trask. I get that. I tend to agree.

The part I don’t agree with is that you seem to have a stance of if you aren’t competing for a championship in the upcoming year you might as well lose as many games as necessary to ensure more/better resources.

I don’t think that mentality builds great culture.

I’d prefer they win 7-10 games. Battle. Grind. Fight for a playoff spot. Even if it means getting trounced in the first round again.

Maybe that’s naive of me? But, this franchise has two Lombardi’s. Neither of which were built around the several top 5 picks the Bucs have had over the years.

[Snake]

How many teams have winning culture in the NFL?

Certainly seems like the Patriots lost their winning culture the minute Brady left.

[Grahamburn]

How many teams have winning culture in the NFL?

Certainly seems like the Patriots lost their winning culture the minute Brady left.

They still have 25 wins over that three year period. But, yeah. Them. The Steelers. The Chiefs and 49ers. Seattle. Organizations that are perpetually relevant in some capacity every year. In the playoff hunt whether they have a great QB or not. Then if things break right they end up champions or close.

I'd prefer not to go back to the days of being in the running for a top 5 pick in October every year. But, that's just me. If this season goes the way most think it will I'll be on the "lose out for a top 3 pick train" when the time comes.

[Doctor]

We're literally here watching two "it's clear they aren't winning this year" 8th seed Florida teams reach the promised land of their sports.

Yet some people still want to argue if you ain't a paper champ trying is stupid. Okay.

[_MB_]

We're literally here watching two "it's clear they aren't winning this year" 8th seed Florida teams reach the promised land of their sports.

Yet some people still want to argue if you ain't a paper champ trying is stupid. Okay.

Fear of success.

I used to think it's just fans hedging against getting their hopes up, but the pathology is worse than that.

Now we don't deserve to win without losing first. Or in this instance we have to "pay" for the winning we already had instead of starting a new season fresh.

It's the sports logic of abused children.

[Doctor]

We don't even talk about how unlikely the first overall pick is. We could literally do every move the tankers want and very very easily end up outside the top 3. It happens all the time. The 2015 Titans, Jags, and Raiders all trying to "Tank for Winston" only to end up picking #2, #3, and #4...

Joke was on all of us though. None of those dudes were keepers. But hey, I'm sure their fanbases took great comfort that their FOs were not committing the awful sin of...

*checks notes*

trying to win.

[Snake]

The draft process is more fun when you’re picking top 5. Certainly more fun than watching a team go 7-10.

[Doctor]

I mean that's why we play the game right? To set up a fun draft process.

[Snake]

Unless you’re actually competing. Not fake competing, going 8-9 winning a trash division and getting btfo in the first round of the playoffs.

Because that is “winning culture” right there!

[Grahamburn]

Unless you’re actually competing. Not fake competing, going 8-9 winning a trash division and getting btfo in the first round of the playoffs.

Because that is “winning culture” right there!

A Lions’ fan would give his left nut to get hammered in the first round of the playoffs.

[Snake]

Unless you’re actually competing. Not fake competing, going 8-9 winning a trash division and getting btfo in the first round of the playoffs.

Because that is “winning culture” right there!

A Lions’ fan would give his left nut to get hammered in the first round of the playoffs.

A nut for a rout makes the whole world go blind. Isn’t that how it goes?

[Cheb]

Unless you’re actually competing. Not fake competing, going 8-9 winning a trash division and getting btfo in the first round of the playoffs.

Because that is “winning culture” right there!

Prior to making the Superbowl this year, the Philadelphia Eagles got bounced out of the wildcard round twice in the prior three seasons.

The Eagles did not tank, nor did they cut all their expensive talent, nor did they expect a rookie savior to pull their ass out of the fire. They kept grinding, adding guys who fit their systems, trading and signing key additions, and drafting well. In short, they played to fucking win, and they ended up within 3 points of the Chiefs in a 38-35 barnburner of a Superbowl just four months ago.

Wanting to tank the season before training camp even starts is pure unmitigated cowardice.

[Snake]

They also have the smartest GM in the league, a franchise quarterback, a great coach, and were willing to cut Wentz to pivot to said franchise QB.

We have Jason, toilet Bowles, and Trask.

I’m not super concerned though. Vegas has the Bucs as a bottom 3 team in the league and we’re actually TRYING.

[Grahamburn]

They also have the smartest GM in the league, a franchise quarterback, a great coach, and were willing to cut Wentz to pivot to said franchise QB.

We have Jason, toilet Bowles, and Trask.

I’m not super concerned though. Vegas has the Bucs as a bottom 3 team in the league and we’re actually TRYING.

We’ve been through all this before, but Hurts looked absolutely awful against us in the 2021 playoffs.

And Licht/Bowles are just two years removed from a Championship run. They can’t be completely incompetent. Brady does not get 100% of the credit here.

[Cheb]

They also have the smartest GM in the league, a franchise quarterback, a great coach, and were willing to cut Wentz to pivot to said franchise QB.

We have Jason, toilet Bowles, and Trask.

I’m not super concerned though. Vegas has the Bucs as a bottom 3 team in the league and we’re actually TRYING.

In his 26 year career in the front office, Jason Licht has played a part in developing Superbowl teams five times, and he has two rings to show for it. Todd Bowles has three Superbowl rings; one as a player with the Skins, one as a front office guy with the Packers, and one as a coach with the Bucs. And Kyle Trask has shown good qualities but is largely unknown as a pro.

But dude, you don't KNOW how things are going to play out. That's why you play the damned games.

Entering the 2000 season, the New England Patriots had a head coach with a 41-55 record coming off a 5-11 season. Their 100 million dollar franchise quarterback got injured in the second game and was out for the season.

This board would immediately call for the team to fold. Season's over, pack it in, time to tank for Julius Peppers.

But instead of resting all their starters and cleaning out their roster before the trade deadline, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick ascended to beat the heavily-favored St Louis Rams for their first Superbowl win, and the rest as they say is history.

The first step to building a winning culture is to feed the competitive spirit and NOT be okay with losing. Teams that tank build guys like Gerald McCoy, who dance on the sidelines in blowout losses, apologize for clean hits, and give pregame speeches about just being happy to be there.

The Bucs have Pro Bowl talent up and down the roster. I see no reason why we are less likely to win the division than we are to get a top three draft choice.

[Doctor]

The "smartest GM in the league" tried to trade for Russell Wilson to replace Hurts before the season and was only saved by Wilson vetoing the trade.

But sure, go off king.

[Bootz]

The "smartest GM in the league" tried to trade for Russell Wilson to replace Hurts before the season and was only saved by Wilson vetoing the trade.

But sure, go off king.

This is the ultimate "What If...." scenario. If Wilson doesn't say no to Philly, Hurts doesn't have the year he does. Might wanna pause on calling Roseman the "smartest GM". Might be the luckiest that the player he tried to trade for saved him a lot of embarrassment.

[Doctor]

Indeed. And that's why I never buy into this "hero worship" / "he was destined for greatness" narrative. The highest paid QB in the league was one decision away of being a benched player lost in the sands.

[MJW]

I mean that's why we play the game right? To set up a fun draft process.

You play to win Titles. Not 7 games instead of 5.

[MJW]

We're literally here watching two "it's clear they aren't winning this year" 8th seed Florida teams reach the promised land of their sports.

Yet some people still want to argue if you ain't a paper champ trying is stupid. Okay.

Fear of success.

I used to think it's just fans hedging against getting their hopes up, but the pathology is worse than that.

Now we don't deserve to win without losing first. Or in this instance we have to "pay" for the winning we already had instead of starting a new season fresh.

It's the sports logic of abused children.

Signed, guy who argued Todd Bowles was successful last year because he won the division.

it's the sports logic of losers.

[MJW]

They also have the smartest GM in the league, a franchise quarterback, a great coach, and were willing to cut Wentz to pivot to said franchise QB.

We have Jason, toilet Bowles, and Trask.

I’m not super concerned though. Vegas has the Bucs as a bottom 3 team in the league and we’re actually TRYING.

In his 26 year career in the front office, Jason Licht has played a part in developing Superbowl teams five times, and he has two rings to show for it. Todd Bowles has three Superbowl rings; one as a player with the Skins, one as a front office guy with the Packers, and one as a coach with the Bucs. And Kyle Trask has shown good qualities but is largely unknown as a pro.

But dude, you don't KNOW how things are going to play out. That's why you play the damned games.

Entering the 2000 season, the New England Patriots had a head coach with a 41-55 record coming off a 5-11 season. Their 100 million dollar franchise quarterback got injured in the second game and was out for the season.

This board would immediately call for the team to fold. Season's over, pack it in, time to tank for Julius Peppers.

But instead of resting all their starters and cleaning out their roster before the trade deadline, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick ascended to beat the heavily-favored St Louis Rams for their first Superbowl win, and the rest as they say is history.

The first step to building a winning culture is to feed the competitive spirit and NOT be okay with losing. Teams that tank build guys like Gerald McCoy, who dance on the sidelines in blowout losses, apologize for clean hits, and give pregame speeches about just being happy to be there.

The Bucs have Pro Bowl talent up and down the roster. I see no reason why we are less likely to win the division than we are to get a top three draft choice.

Cool. Is Kyle Trask Tom Brady here, or Mayfield? Obviously "three time Superbowl Champ" Todd Bowles is Belichick.

Also, I don't know who needs to hear these, but "incredible, mind-blowing thing that's so rare it'll be talked about in 100 years" is not a plan. Yes, winning the lottery happens. No, the possibility does not mean you should write checks against your 401(K) to buy tickets.

Are you claiming that all top three picks are like Gerald McCoy?

Is the goal to "win the division" as you say? We did that last year. Was last year successful?


There is an argument to be made against leveraging for the future. If someone wants to talk about "winning cultures," I get it. I don't necessarily agree with it - I think it's based on feelings, not logic. But I get it. But this "maybe the team that's clearly not a contender is actually a contender because that happens on extremely rare occasions" thing ain't it.

[Grahamburn]

The 2020 Bucs didn't even look like real contenders until the middle of December.