1) What work is "just saying..." doing here?kaimaru wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:15 pmWe wouldn't have a Super Bowl if we hadn't done #4 (Arians), just saying...Nobody wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:58 pm I feel like there is category error happening here. The draft isn’t a crapshoot. Its not close to a crapshoot (just like Hold ‘Em isn’t about “luck” and “bad beats” as the overwhelming signal of play).
The reality is that Front Offices and NFL Scouting Regimes (a) follow the Pareto Distribution just like everything else in our world and in the universe at large. Consequently, (b) most of these people are average-ish at their job with (c) a vanishingly small number of them being savants.
So, (i) fill your organization with as many of the rare savants as possible, (ii) ensure they have the most influence on the process and its outputs, (iii) don’t have too many cooks in the kitchen, (iv) don’t play politics/nepotism (let your derp regional scout/coach friend have more say on a primary pick because “friend” or whatever).
EDIT - My guess is most of these regimes have waaaaaay too many employees, way over complicate the process, and have too many voices so their process trends toward dilution of focus or incoherence.
But to expand on that, it seems Arians had a lot of say in the picks along with Bowles. How do you feel about that?
2) So is your first paragraph a claim that Licht hired Arians exclusively on the back of nepotism and we won the Super Bowl on the back of that nepotism (rather than a confluence of factors including Tom Brady and Gronk/AB coming in downstream of that and absolutely major hits on our first two picks that year)? Or are you saying something else? If you are saying that, even if so, we're pivoting to hiring coaches based on nepotism, not scouting regime/pick nepotism.
3) What happens in front offices generally and draft day specifically is pretty opaque to me. I feel confident in a total milquetoast take of Arians and Bowles certainly had their say on picks, but I don't feel tremendously confident in saying how far that goes. Here are the picks I would say the Bucs "hit" on during the Arians/Bowles regime of 2019 to 2022. "Hit" is anywhere from "solid for where drafted" to "out of the freaking park."
2019: Dean (3rd), Edwards (3rd), Nelson (4th), Miller (6th). Great starting CB (though got dinged just as one would expect). Sub-package Safety who transitioned to starter who was up and down his first and last year but was very good in the Super Bowl window in 2020 and 2021. Solid rotational Edge player and WR with enough juice on his one-trick to give the offense a different look when he's on the field and convert huge plays; for a 4th round Edge that is solid and for a 6th round WR, that is fantastic RoI.
2020: Wirfs (1st), WInfield (2nd). Nothing needs to be said here. Top 3 picks in Licht's tenure.
2021: ...Hainsey (3rd)? Redshirt year 1. Anchored one of the worst OLs in the league last year though he was solid enough at Center despite a train-wreck on his left for half the year. His skillset is tailor made for an Outside Zone scheme so I think where he struggled in our Gap/Duo-heavy scheme last year, he'll ascend at iOL in this footwork, technique, lateral movement-intensive scheme.
2019 we were overflowing in draft capital. 2020 we were middling. 2021 we were bottom of the league (though I'll point to KC for what is possible with "bottom of the league" draft capital).
Overall, I would say 3 x Home Runs (Dean, Wirfs, Winfield), 3 x Hits, 1 x TBD but trending toward Hit. However much Arians/Bowles signal is in that, I don't know. However Arians/Bowles signal is in the rest of it, I also don't know.