MJW wrote: ↑Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:28 pm1) Tell you what - if Williams enters the draft and isn't selected #1, I'll request an IP ban. If he does, you do. Still feel good about that "just as easily" thing?Doctor wrote: ↑Sat Jun 03, 2023 4:17 pm
Not yet but he's on track to at least be on that same tier. We'll have to wait and see if he can hold on to the #1 spot during his final year.
In the modern era since the rookie wage scale there have only been four QBs to actually go into the season as "the guy to tank for" and still be there when the dust settles- Luck, Winston, Lawrence, and Young. If we want to cheat a little we can even include Bradford in there. Caleb might be the next, but it just as easily could be Maye or Harrison Jr going first overall next year. The others also had National Championships and/or Heismans on their resumes (except Luck). Caleb is very much in that boat.
However, you may be quick to notice all the saviors combine for exactly 0 Lombardis.
2) You're violently underrating Williams, and I say this as someone who has studied the draft, year in, year out, since 1994. Since I've been doing this - almost 30 years - I can think of maybe 5 QBs who I'm 100% confident would go ahead of him in a common draft (as prospects, coming out of college, with no foreknowledge of their NFL outcomes.) And they're all guys who are either Hall Of Famers or have at least been discussed in the room. He's a much better prospect than guys like Mayfield, Bradford, Winston (see above), Murray, and a host of others.
3) Out of 250 or so picks each year, plus UDFAs, QBs picked #1 overall have won roughly 30% of the Superbowls in NFL history (a number that would be higher if not for one single guy picked #199.) I don't know why you harp on this "rookie savior" nonsense - nobody actually thinks that way but you - but even your argument against them isn't sound.
I don't know why you would think I would want you banned. I absolutely would not.
It's not against him. I like Caleb. If we do somehow end up with the first pick (and I had to choose today) I'd be all for taking him the same way I was Winston. As I said, he's in that boat with those other dudes as the clear presumptive #1. And he totally has the right to be.
I think you are violently overrating your ability to assess college QBs, especially one with one great year. Again, he is very talented, yes, and it would be a total disappointment if he had a bad year. But you are acting like it's an impossibility. Like he's already a lock for the HoF. Sorry, but that's just too much optimism for even me to swallow and that says a lot.