Because Bucs pick 19th.
These posts will probably get consistently smaller. I watched some schools a lot more than others. Particularly my 3 alma maters, har har!
Anyways, let's get into it.
Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Last edited by Snake on Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Carolina Panthers - #1 - Select CJ Stroud
Players under consideration: Stroud, Young, Richardson, Levis.
Rationale: They traded up for a QB. They’re dating all the QBs right now. But oddsmakers and rumblings point to Stroud.
Stroud pros:
- Classic QB dimensions. He’s not as bodied up as Levis or Richardson, but he has 10” hands and is 6’3 and solid.
- Played at a big school and in huge games. A 22-4 record.
- Wildly productively. 85 passing TDs in the last two seasons, against 12 INTs.
- On time, on target as a thrower.
- Put the team on his back in the college football playoffs. Was a FG away from beating Georgia and cakewalking to a National Championship victory.
- Pros who have prepared him for the draft describe him as disarmingly approachable. Treats likely UDFAs and 1st round picks the same way. Predictable and easy to like.
- Very accurate thrower. Arm in the range of 59-60 mph. For reference, Josh Allen is 62 mph. Plenty of arm.
- The dude has balls when throwing into coverage. Has no problem dropping a ball into a basket mere centimeters away from a defender’s hands.
Stroud cons:
- Ohio State QB. I don’t think it should be seen as a thing, but it’s seen as a thing.
- Performs markedly worse under pressure. Like, near the bottom of CFB QBs. If you trust analytics, his performance differential between clean/unclean pockets was the biggest in CFB. I heard Michigan was calling him “First Read King” in film study. Get him off his first read, no Bueno.
- Ohio State is an NFL offensive player factory. It’s possible that every WR who has started meaningful snaps with Stroud at OSU is better than the WRs he will play with in Carolina to begin his career:
Marvin Harrison (eventual top 10 pick), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (likely top 15 pick), Chris Olave (11th OA pick, and looking great), Garrett Wilson (10th OA pick, and looking great).
- You don’t want to fault a guy for that, but he was bringing bazookas and tanks to gun fights. Not to mention other position groups that (at worst) included annual late round picks and a dozen UDFAs.
- Isn’t a freak athlete type like Richardson and arguably Bryce Young. In a league moving towards very athletic creators, he isn’t that.
Why I think this is a good pick:
- I see Stroud as a sort of middle ground out of this QB grouping. That may be a copout. But hear me out.
- He’s not a physical marvel like Levis or Richardson. He’s a lot more productive than both of those players. He played a bigger school with sky high expectations and actually rose to the occasion and produced against elite competition.
- In no universe will Billy Levis or A. Richardson become better throwers of the football than Stroud. The touch, the accuracy. It won’t happen. But, that isn’t everything.
- He’s bigger than Bryce Young and won’t be as dependent on manipulating the pocket with his feet.
Why I think this is a bad pick:
- Jared Goff isn’t a bad player. He also went #1 overall. This is a comp I’m seeing thrown around and I’m having a hard time shaking it. The thing I will reference a lot in this thread is processing speed. How the QB feels the game post-snap. Anyone with an IQ over 80 can be taught whiteboard concepts. Ask Jameis. The difference maker is post-snap. Can Stroud actually get better at playing under duress?
- The arm is there. The accuracy is there. The size is there. The big game pedigree is there. He showed adequate movement skills against Georgia.
But playing against pressure, going through reads when read 1 is gone. That’s hard and what separates the GOATS from the JAGs. That’s what you need when you’re down 10 with 8 minutes left and teams have you playing one-dimensionally. Can you put the team on your back?
- My gut is to call this a “high floor pick." But that floor only exists in a well-schemed up offense. It's worked for Goff. But was Goff worth a #1 overall pick?
Players under consideration: Stroud, Young, Richardson, Levis.
Rationale: They traded up for a QB. They’re dating all the QBs right now. But oddsmakers and rumblings point to Stroud.
Stroud pros:
- Classic QB dimensions. He’s not as bodied up as Levis or Richardson, but he has 10” hands and is 6’3 and solid.
- Played at a big school and in huge games. A 22-4 record.
- Wildly productively. 85 passing TDs in the last two seasons, against 12 INTs.
- On time, on target as a thrower.
- Put the team on his back in the college football playoffs. Was a FG away from beating Georgia and cakewalking to a National Championship victory.
- Pros who have prepared him for the draft describe him as disarmingly approachable. Treats likely UDFAs and 1st round picks the same way. Predictable and easy to like.
- Very accurate thrower. Arm in the range of 59-60 mph. For reference, Josh Allen is 62 mph. Plenty of arm.
- The dude has balls when throwing into coverage. Has no problem dropping a ball into a basket mere centimeters away from a defender’s hands.
Stroud cons:
- Ohio State QB. I don’t think it should be seen as a thing, but it’s seen as a thing.
- Performs markedly worse under pressure. Like, near the bottom of CFB QBs. If you trust analytics, his performance differential between clean/unclean pockets was the biggest in CFB. I heard Michigan was calling him “First Read King” in film study. Get him off his first read, no Bueno.
- Ohio State is an NFL offensive player factory. It’s possible that every WR who has started meaningful snaps with Stroud at OSU is better than the WRs he will play with in Carolina to begin his career:
Marvin Harrison (eventual top 10 pick), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (likely top 15 pick), Chris Olave (11th OA pick, and looking great), Garrett Wilson (10th OA pick, and looking great).
- You don’t want to fault a guy for that, but he was bringing bazookas and tanks to gun fights. Not to mention other position groups that (at worst) included annual late round picks and a dozen UDFAs.
- Isn’t a freak athlete type like Richardson and arguably Bryce Young. In a league moving towards very athletic creators, he isn’t that.
Why I think this is a good pick:
- I see Stroud as a sort of middle ground out of this QB grouping. That may be a copout. But hear me out.
- He’s not a physical marvel like Levis or Richardson. He’s a lot more productive than both of those players. He played a bigger school with sky high expectations and actually rose to the occasion and produced against elite competition.
- In no universe will Billy Levis or A. Richardson become better throwers of the football than Stroud. The touch, the accuracy. It won’t happen. But, that isn’t everything.
- He’s bigger than Bryce Young and won’t be as dependent on manipulating the pocket with his feet.
Why I think this is a bad pick:
- Jared Goff isn’t a bad player. He also went #1 overall. This is a comp I’m seeing thrown around and I’m having a hard time shaking it. The thing I will reference a lot in this thread is processing speed. How the QB feels the game post-snap. Anyone with an IQ over 80 can be taught whiteboard concepts. Ask Jameis. The difference maker is post-snap. Can Stroud actually get better at playing under duress?
- The arm is there. The accuracy is there. The size is there. The big game pedigree is there. He showed adequate movement skills against Georgia.
But playing against pressure, going through reads when read 1 is gone. That’s hard and what separates the GOATS from the JAGs. That’s what you need when you’re down 10 with 8 minutes left and teams have you playing one-dimensionally. Can you put the team on your back?
- My gut is to call this a “high floor pick." But that floor only exists in a well-schemed up offense. It's worked for Goff. But was Goff worth a #1 overall pick?
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Houston Texans - #2 – Select Bryce Young
Players under consideration: Young, Richardson, Levis.
Rationale: Houston gets their very productive, winning QB who is cut in the new NFL mold.
Young pros:
- The first thing that stood out to me as a hate-viewer of Alabama (“please lose, for the love of god!”), was Bryce Young’s understanding of how his actions dictated reactions by the defense. You’ve probably played pac-man. You ever notice how the moment you change directions or go down a different lane, the ghosts in pacman immediately react to that and change their course of action? Bryce Young does that. Only the ghosts are the other team’s defenders, and he’s always a step ahead. Fake the a-gap scramble, it’ll get the LB over here, and open up a lane there. Masterful. He often didn’t wait for the LB to move, the ball was coming out the second the LB made the decision to move.
- The second thing that stood out was how clutch Young was. I could bore you with the details. Just go watch any of Alabama’s close games last season. Late 4Q drives with serious adversity. The SEC competition has caught up, and Bama’s development/recruiting slipped a touch. There were more competitive games for Young. Moreso than previous Bama years.
- On the move, eyes downfield. He’s a scrambler, but again, it’s about manipulating defenders and creating openings. Scouts in hockey look for how often a player “shoulder-checks.” That means, literally, checking over his shoulder. Being aware of your surroundings. A player who gets lost in the speed of the game, or lacks the skill to focus on things outside of what’s happening right in front of their face, can be liabilities at worst, or miss out on ways to produce, at best. When I see a guy scramble, I want the equivalent of shoulder checks. I want a guy’s head going left and right assessing situations. Not locking on to a player. Bryce Young rolls out like he’s on a stroll at the park. Calm, and head moving around. Manipulating defenders. Beautiful stuff.
- The average NFL combine arm is roughly 54 mph. They do radar gun. Tua’s was 53.5. 60+ is elite. Young didn’t throw at the combine, but nerds used geometry and calculated Young's to be high 50s at worst. That’s damn good. Could probably add some RPMs with additional coaching over the next few years. Brady was 60+ mph in his 40s. mechanics baby. He's also sufficiently accurate with his balls. I don't see as many advanced touch throws like Stroud, but that's nitpicking.
- Quick release. He gets it out really fast.
- All reports indicate a solid young man. Great leader.
Young cons:
- He’s small. There, I said it. 5’10, 204. He has big hands, but that doesn’t make up for being small. More on that later.
- Doesn’t throw a "pretty" ball. This is a thing for some people. I don't care.
- Isn’t an elite linear athlete or on that athletic level like a Murray/Lamar. Hard to call this a negative, but you’d prefer to see that if you’re drafting a diminutive player.
Why I think this is a good pick:
- I think Young is basically Russell Wilson if his game projects. The escapability that enables opportunities downfield. “Small” build but big hands. Great sense for pocket pressure.
- He comes from the most iron-sharpens-iron program in college football. Pressure cooker conference, highest expectations of any program in the modern era. NFL media/fan pressure will likely feel much easier by comparison (srs). Being a top pick and being expected to turn a culture around aren’t huge asks.
- The soft skills (going through progressions, processing post-snap) I believe are clearly there. If he busts because the game is too fast for him, I'll be shocked. This is the biggest area of risk for all QBs making the jump.
- He's not an elite athlete, but man, he's a good one. Russell Wilson doesn't test elite. Neither does Aaron Rodgers for the last 10 years. But they look like the best athletes on the field because they are dictating the action entirely and know where every defender is on the field at all times.
Why I think this is a bad pick:
- Unless you’re Drew Brees, you need to get outside the pocket to maximize your effectiveness in the NFL as a small QB. Russ struggles throwing over the middle. When teams contact Murray, that’s when he struggles most. If Young’s brand of movement doesn’t work – for whatever reason – he probably doesn’t work in the NFL.
- Young doesn’t have many flaws. I can stretch for this though:
Anthony Richardson, today, is not a better football player than Bryce Young. But, if he figures out some things (okay, a lot of things), you can probably squint and see the best player in football. I don’t ever see Bryce Young being the best QB/player in football. I think he’s a lock for the top 10 though. Should a team like the Texans swing for the fences, or just be happy such a productive and high football IQ player landed in their lap? We will know in a few years.
► Show Spoiler
Rationale: Houston gets their very productive, winning QB who is cut in the new NFL mold.
Young pros:
- The first thing that stood out to me as a hate-viewer of Alabama (“please lose, for the love of god!”), was Bryce Young’s understanding of how his actions dictated reactions by the defense. You’ve probably played pac-man. You ever notice how the moment you change directions or go down a different lane, the ghosts in pacman immediately react to that and change their course of action? Bryce Young does that. Only the ghosts are the other team’s defenders, and he’s always a step ahead. Fake the a-gap scramble, it’ll get the LB over here, and open up a lane there. Masterful. He often didn’t wait for the LB to move, the ball was coming out the second the LB made the decision to move.
- The second thing that stood out was how clutch Young was. I could bore you with the details. Just go watch any of Alabama’s close games last season. Late 4Q drives with serious adversity. The SEC competition has caught up, and Bama’s development/recruiting slipped a touch. There were more competitive games for Young. Moreso than previous Bama years.
- On the move, eyes downfield. He’s a scrambler, but again, it’s about manipulating defenders and creating openings. Scouts in hockey look for how often a player “shoulder-checks.” That means, literally, checking over his shoulder. Being aware of your surroundings. A player who gets lost in the speed of the game, or lacks the skill to focus on things outside of what’s happening right in front of their face, can be liabilities at worst, or miss out on ways to produce, at best. When I see a guy scramble, I want the equivalent of shoulder checks. I want a guy’s head going left and right assessing situations. Not locking on to a player. Bryce Young rolls out like he’s on a stroll at the park. Calm, and head moving around. Manipulating defenders. Beautiful stuff.
- The average NFL combine arm is roughly 54 mph. They do radar gun. Tua’s was 53.5. 60+ is elite. Young didn’t throw at the combine, but nerds used geometry and calculated Young's to be high 50s at worst. That’s damn good. Could probably add some RPMs with additional coaching over the next few years. Brady was 60+ mph in his 40s. mechanics baby. He's also sufficiently accurate with his balls. I don't see as many advanced touch throws like Stroud, but that's nitpicking.
- Quick release. He gets it out really fast.
- All reports indicate a solid young man. Great leader.
Young cons:
- He’s small. There, I said it. 5’10, 204. He has big hands, but that doesn’t make up for being small. More on that later.
- Doesn’t throw a "pretty" ball. This is a thing for some people. I don't care.
- Isn’t an elite linear athlete or on that athletic level like a Murray/Lamar. Hard to call this a negative, but you’d prefer to see that if you’re drafting a diminutive player.
Why I think this is a good pick:
- I think Young is basically Russell Wilson if his game projects. The escapability that enables opportunities downfield. “Small” build but big hands. Great sense for pocket pressure.
- He comes from the most iron-sharpens-iron program in college football. Pressure cooker conference, highest expectations of any program in the modern era. NFL media/fan pressure will likely feel much easier by comparison (srs). Being a top pick and being expected to turn a culture around aren’t huge asks.
- The soft skills (going through progressions, processing post-snap) I believe are clearly there. If he busts because the game is too fast for him, I'll be shocked. This is the biggest area of risk for all QBs making the jump.
- He's not an elite athlete, but man, he's a good one. Russell Wilson doesn't test elite. Neither does Aaron Rodgers for the last 10 years. But they look like the best athletes on the field because they are dictating the action entirely and know where every defender is on the field at all times.
Why I think this is a bad pick:
- Unless you’re Drew Brees, you need to get outside the pocket to maximize your effectiveness in the NFL as a small QB. Russ struggles throwing over the middle. When teams contact Murray, that’s when he struggles most. If Young’s brand of movement doesn’t work – for whatever reason – he probably doesn’t work in the NFL.
- Young doesn’t have many flaws. I can stretch for this though:
Anthony Richardson, today, is not a better football player than Bryce Young. But, if he figures out some things (okay, a lot of things), you can probably squint and see the best player in football. I don’t ever see Bryce Young being the best QB/player in football. I think he’s a lock for the top 10 though. Should a team like the Texans swing for the fences, or just be happy such a productive and high football IQ player landed in their lap? We will know in a few years.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
IMO Stroud over Young is likely to happen and will be a huge mistake. Young's size has people over thinking this. It's honestly the only red flag against him.
That said, Houston will get who they probably wanted all along and will be better for it. They get to keep this pick and their other 1st and build around Young.
That said, Houston will get who they probably wanted all along and will be better for it. They get to keep this pick and their other 1st and build around Young.
Most hated man in America.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
I’d be lying if I said that wasn’t my gut feeling today after going back and watching film this morning. Stroud does amazing within an offense. Which is a requisite to running on time and on schedule offense. But it’s not with separates great quarterbacks from good ones.Bootz wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 5:06 pm IMO Stroud over Young is likely to happen and will be a huge mistake. Young's size has people over thinking this. It's honestly the only red flag against him.
That said, Houston will get who they probably wanted all along and will be better for it. They get to keep this pick and their other 1st and build around Young.
What needs to be coached out of Bryce Young? Get hit less, work within the offense a bit more. Not that hard.
Stroud? Process the game faster, don’t get stuck on your primary reads. Flip your head to the other side of the field faster. Make decisions faster.
I don’t doubt that Stroud will be effective when he’s asked to be a human JUGS machine. But, isn’t that more or less Jimmy G and Jared Goff?
I need to go watch the Georgia game again.
-
GreatTimes
- Posts: 915
- Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:24 pm
- Reputation: 215
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
I think this years QB crop may be one of the biggest flops in recent history.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
How so?GreatTimes wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:38 pm I think this years QB crop may be one of the biggest flops in recent history.
Most hated man in America.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
That's an interesting supposition and I'd love to hear your rationale.GreatTimes wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:38 pm I think this years QB crop may be one of the biggest flops in recent history.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
AgreedGreatTimes wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:38 pm I think this years QB crop may be one of the biggest flops in recent history.
Especially @Snake boy CJ Stroud
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
I'm beginning to agree Stroud will go before Young. I just think it'll be a lot easier for Reich to picture Stroud operating his offense. Interestingly, he's probably the guy with the lowest ceiling.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
I could very much see a reality where:GreatTimes wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:38 pm I think this years QB crop may be one of the biggest flops in recent history.
- Young can't stay healthy
- Stroud doesn't end up with a very high ceiling
- Levis and Richardson will be complete flops
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
And all will have their game studied.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Arizona Cardinals - #3 - Select Will Anderson, EDGE- Alabama
I really don’t have too much to say here. Most mock drafts you see you out there will either have Arizona selecting this player or trading down. He’s seen as the best defender in the draft, at least by most. Long arms, good frame, good testing, powerful player. Dominated college from his first day on campus.
I don’t have him on that Bosa level, but he’s good. Also moves well in coverage.
I really don’t have too much to say here. Most mock drafts you see you out there will either have Arizona selecting this player or trading down. He’s seen as the best defender in the draft, at least by most. Long arms, good frame, good testing, powerful player. Dominated college from his first day on campus.
I don’t have him on that Bosa level, but he’s good. Also moves well in coverage.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Appreciate the thread, looking forward to seeing the remaining picks!
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Indianapolis Colts - #4 pick - Trade Down with the Raiders - THE RAIDERS select Anthony Richardson
Players under consideration: Richardson, Levis, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, one of the corners, Carter (DT)
Rationale: The Raiders are willing to develop Richardson as their QBOTF as Jimmy G mans the ship. Indy leadership does not fall for Richardson being "The Next Josh Allen."
Richardson pros:
- His size and *testing* athleticism is basically the best ever at the QB position. 6'4, 245, 4.43, 40".
- Only 20 years old at the time of the draft. Hendon Hooker, by contrast, is 25 y/o.
- I think he's pretty good at selling the PA.
- Explosive play ability. Flick of the wrist 50 yard throws, 70+ yard runs where he's running by people.
- Can generate elite velocity while rolling out. even in a sprint.
- Does not shy away from contact. Needs to learn to. but he isn't a pussy.
- Raw. One can see a competent QB coach fixing his mechanical issues and improving his overall performance quickly.
Richardson cons:
- Started playing QB as a junior in HS. Some people would say this is a good thing, as he has more growth to tap into. I'm not so sure. Kids today are doing 7-on-7's in middle school and working on developing basic QB skills even younger. There's something to say about lifelong mastery and cementing that cognitive chunking as young as possible. Not to say Richardson is precluded from developing, his chances are just lower. Especially when we discuss his traits demonstrated in college...
- Inaccurate, lacks touch, lacks anticipation, bad footwork, struggled reading defenses post-snap.
- Very bad footwork. But most fixable issue.
- Inaccuracy is related to footwork, but can be a genetic issue, as well. Fixability of accuracy is debatable once mechanical aspects are resolved. A lot of people think fixing mechanics can fix accuracy and intended ball placement. it's not a panacea.
- Straight up missing throws. not bad ball placement. missing high, missing wide. throwing it way too hard on short throws and having them bounce off guys' hands. again, mechanics, not using his base, whipping the ball with his arm only.
- he's faster in a straight line than he is quick. I know he tests twitchy, but his long levers and height definitely affect his ability to move in game. this is not lamar jackson spinning on dimes, being bendy, and having crazy ankle flexion. Jackson is super fluid, Richardson is stiffer.
Why I think this is a good pick:
- Richardson will have zero pressure to start in Las Vegas. Jimmy G is an average starting QB who guys like in the locker room. Richardson will only be rushed to start if Jimmy G really stinks, gets injured, and/or McDaniels starts to feel the heat and needs Richardson to save his job. Jimmy signed a 3 year deal. In a perfect world, the baton is handed off entering year 3 or at the conclusion of Jimmy's deal. Richardson would only be 23-24. In a plan such as this, one hopes ownership, management, and the HC are on the same page about the trajectory here.
- If Richardson is as athletic as he seems to be, he could still be used sporadically in certain formations and sets. Another offensive wrinkle, and game speed reps.
- The NFL is going this way at QB. Freak athletes. Get them out in space, let people be afraid to tackle them, and create easy looks on the move. o-line play is down across the league. helpful to have more athletic QBs.
- Jimmy G is fine, but you have to be SO. GOOD. everywhere else to win a SB with him. Recall the KC vs SF SB. When crunch time arose and Jimmy had to put the team on his back, it wasn't in his ability to do so. He's a plug and play rhythm QB. Richardson's upside - as unlikely as he is to reach it - is top 5 QB upside and those players can carry a team.
Why I think this is a bad pick:
- Isn't this very Raiders-y? Shades of Heyward-Bey, and every other "get me the fastest/strongest armest/biggest mofo and I'll teach em how to play football it ain't that hard!" pick from Al Davis circa the aughts.
- McDaniels offense is not easy to pick up. It helps if you're on the bench for 2-3 years, but even so, it's not easy. There's a ton of memorization involved and its concept-based where guys will only know routes and such when they get to the LOS. It's been described as "counter-intuitive", especially post-snap.
Players under consideration: Richardson, Levis, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, one of the corners, Carter (DT)
Rationale: The Raiders are willing to develop Richardson as their QBOTF as Jimmy G mans the ship. Indy leadership does not fall for Richardson being "The Next Josh Allen."
Richardson pros:
- His size and *testing* athleticism is basically the best ever at the QB position. 6'4, 245, 4.43, 40".
- Only 20 years old at the time of the draft. Hendon Hooker, by contrast, is 25 y/o.
- I think he's pretty good at selling the PA.
- Explosive play ability. Flick of the wrist 50 yard throws, 70+ yard runs where he's running by people.
- Can generate elite velocity while rolling out. even in a sprint.
- Does not shy away from contact. Needs to learn to. but he isn't a pussy.
- Raw. One can see a competent QB coach fixing his mechanical issues and improving his overall performance quickly.
Richardson cons:
- Started playing QB as a junior in HS. Some people would say this is a good thing, as he has more growth to tap into. I'm not so sure. Kids today are doing 7-on-7's in middle school and working on developing basic QB skills even younger. There's something to say about lifelong mastery and cementing that cognitive chunking as young as possible. Not to say Richardson is precluded from developing, his chances are just lower. Especially when we discuss his traits demonstrated in college...
- Inaccurate, lacks touch, lacks anticipation, bad footwork, struggled reading defenses post-snap.
- Very bad footwork. But most fixable issue.
- Inaccuracy is related to footwork, but can be a genetic issue, as well. Fixability of accuracy is debatable once mechanical aspects are resolved. A lot of people think fixing mechanics can fix accuracy and intended ball placement. it's not a panacea.
- Straight up missing throws. not bad ball placement. missing high, missing wide. throwing it way too hard on short throws and having them bounce off guys' hands. again, mechanics, not using his base, whipping the ball with his arm only.
- he's faster in a straight line than he is quick. I know he tests twitchy, but his long levers and height definitely affect his ability to move in game. this is not lamar jackson spinning on dimes, being bendy, and having crazy ankle flexion. Jackson is super fluid, Richardson is stiffer.
Why I think this is a good pick:
- Richardson will have zero pressure to start in Las Vegas. Jimmy G is an average starting QB who guys like in the locker room. Richardson will only be rushed to start if Jimmy G really stinks, gets injured, and/or McDaniels starts to feel the heat and needs Richardson to save his job. Jimmy signed a 3 year deal. In a perfect world, the baton is handed off entering year 3 or at the conclusion of Jimmy's deal. Richardson would only be 23-24. In a plan such as this, one hopes ownership, management, and the HC are on the same page about the trajectory here.
- If Richardson is as athletic as he seems to be, he could still be used sporadically in certain formations and sets. Another offensive wrinkle, and game speed reps.
- The NFL is going this way at QB. Freak athletes. Get them out in space, let people be afraid to tackle them, and create easy looks on the move. o-line play is down across the league. helpful to have more athletic QBs.
- Jimmy G is fine, but you have to be SO. GOOD. everywhere else to win a SB with him. Recall the KC vs SF SB. When crunch time arose and Jimmy had to put the team on his back, it wasn't in his ability to do so. He's a plug and play rhythm QB. Richardson's upside - as unlikely as he is to reach it - is top 5 QB upside and those players can carry a team.
Why I think this is a bad pick:
- Isn't this very Raiders-y? Shades of Heyward-Bey, and every other "get me the fastest/strongest armest/biggest mofo and I'll teach em how to play football it ain't that hard!" pick from Al Davis circa the aughts.
- McDaniels offense is not easy to pick up. It helps if you're on the bench for 2-3 years, but even so, it's not easy. There's a ton of memorization involved and its concept-based where guys will only know routes and such when they get to the LOS. It's been described as "counter-intuitive", especially post-snap.
We ain't in Florida anymore. and on that note, Richardson's brain has to be pretty scrambled at this point. 3 QB coaches, 3 OCs, and 2 HCs in his 3 years at Florida. Getting thrown into this would be disastrous if he didn't have time to marinate. and even so, he may not have the chops to handle this type of cognitive load. that's not a racial thing. you just don't know. the college film isn't promising in that regard."There are all different kinds of reads within this offense,” “There are quick-ins, there are progression reads, half-field reads which mean you’re working one side of the field versus one coverage and one side versus another. We had the ability, based on discussions that took place over the course of the week, that if he got a particular look — a blitz look or a split-safety man look underneath — we had the ability to go outside, and that comes with a comfort level."
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Would like to request 4 picks a day.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
No chance Indy does that. Zero chance
Most hated man in America.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
I agree with this. It’s why I almost hope if the Bucs don’t make the playoffs (A most likely scenario), they completely flop and get a top pick because next year the qb class is outstanding.MJW wrote: ↑Sat Apr 01, 2023 1:22 amI could very much see a reality where:GreatTimes wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:38 pm I think this years QB crop may be one of the biggest flops in recent history.
- Young can't stay healthy
- Stroud doesn't end up with a very high ceiling
- Levis and Richardson will be complete flops
Stroud showed me a ton against Georgia and that defense in the Peach Bowl…he’s the guy from this class I’m most high on. Not sold on the others. Hooker could be good value as a second rounder, but not a first.
-
Selmon Rules
- Posts: 2073
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:02 pm
- Reputation: 592
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Is it tomorrow yet??
I kid, I don't do these things and I do appreciate those of you that do them. Usually interesting reading. Still have a week until actual draft
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Coming next fall.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Totally understand. Its a lot of work put into this with not a lot of payoff.
Sorta feel bad for Nobody as well. He writes these huge and very thorough breakdowns and gets very little engagement.
Sorta feel bad for Nobody as well. He writes these huge and very thorough breakdowns and gets very little engagement.
-
Grahamburn
- Posts: 3335
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 975
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Wait. You start a thread stating you're going to do an elaborate mock, and then when you don't follow through with it you're blaming the lack of picks on other posters not being engaging enough with the mock you're not actually doing?
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
The point is the player analysis. Had my already multiple pages of player analysis garnered more discussion, it would be worth posting more. As is, I’m better off just posting the picks themselves. Which I’ll probably do since it takes 3 mins.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 2:06 pmWait. You start a thread stating you're going to do an elaborate mock, and then when you don't follow through with it you're blaming the lack of picks on other posters not being engaging enough with the mock you're not actually doing?
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
I do get that. To be fair most of the engagement would probably happen around controversial picks like Bijan at 10 or Carter falling or something along those lines. The top 4 are pretty standard right now and I don't think anyone would say too much if it did fall that way.
Then again that Raiders trade is electric, but you really covered both Good and Bad sides. And it really seems like a Raider-y sort of move.
Then again that Raiders trade is electric, but you really covered both Good and Bad sides. And it really seems like a Raider-y sort of move.
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
Indianapolis Colts select Will Levis, #5 overall
The Colts don’t have the future at QB. The GM - while buddy buddy with the owner - hasn’t delivered a good product since Luck left him in a lurch unexpectedly. There comes a point when you have to swing, even if it’s a boom/bust guy.
Levis scored high on the cognition tests, he’s a good student, he has all the arm strength, and he has truly prototypical size (6’4) including huge hands (10.5”). He spends too much time lifting weights, but you can live with it if he’s doing the other prep work.
I’m guessing Levis is something like a week 6 start unless he makes major strides come training camp.
I saw Levis play in person. I’ve said this before. He’s moxie personified. Physical, ballsy. The turnovers should scare everyone. They scare me. But he’s not as raw as Richardson, nor is he as athletic.
So far:
#1 - Panthers - CJ Stroud
#2 - Texans - Bryce Young
#3 - Cardinals - Will Anderson
#4 - Raiders (trade up) - Anthony Richardson
#5 - Colts - Will Levis
That’s four QBs in the top 5. I really didn’t expect it to land this way. I wasn’t a big fan of this qb class coming in. A see a bunch of bust potential.
But I also see a board of qb needy teams and some qb prospects who have elite physical traits in a league that is increasingly moving towards athletes at qb.
The Colts don’t have the future at QB. The GM - while buddy buddy with the owner - hasn’t delivered a good product since Luck left him in a lurch unexpectedly. There comes a point when you have to swing, even if it’s a boom/bust guy.
Levis scored high on the cognition tests, he’s a good student, he has all the arm strength, and he has truly prototypical size (6’4) including huge hands (10.5”). He spends too much time lifting weights, but you can live with it if he’s doing the other prep work.
I’m guessing Levis is something like a week 6 start unless he makes major strides come training camp.
I saw Levis play in person. I’ve said this before. He’s moxie personified. Physical, ballsy. The turnovers should scare everyone. They scare me. But he’s not as raw as Richardson, nor is he as athletic.
So far:
#1 - Panthers - CJ Stroud
#2 - Texans - Bryce Young
#3 - Cardinals - Will Anderson
#4 - Raiders (trade up) - Anthony Richardson
#5 - Colts - Will Levis
That’s four QBs in the top 5. I really didn’t expect it to land this way. I wasn’t a big fan of this qb class coming in. A see a bunch of bust potential.
But I also see a board of qb needy teams and some qb prospects who have elite physical traits in a league that is increasingly moving towards athletes at qb.
-
Selmon Rules
- Posts: 2073
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:02 pm
- Reputation: 592
Re: Snake's 2023 NFL mock. Picks 1-19.
I assume most people engage with the board similar to the way I do, reading mostly, but I do enjoy the mock drafts y'all post. Makes for interesting reading and I do appreciate it
Thanks
Thanks
