Clayton Tune; QB Houston

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Nobody
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Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Nobody »

Checked this kid out a bit; tape, metrics, athletic profile.

This might be a great 5th round investment for us at the QB position, particularly for the offense that we’re likely to run:

* His athletic profile grades out like a LBer and it shows up on tape both in the pocket and making off-script plays.

* His Turnover Worthy Play to Big Time Throw Rate is absolutely fantastic.

* Grades and tape of throws are excellent at all field levels.

* Adjusted Comp % near tops of FBS despite a large number of high leverage throws (this offense looks to basically be him).

* Throws an easy, pretty ball with huge RPM, with an efficient enough release, and can do so from funky platforms in the pocket (doesn’t need to reset feet when climbing to evade pressure).

———-

This is not a player that is going to be a presnap read-heavy + throw with anticipation into stupid tight windows type QB (at least he doesn’t show that). But if you put him in an Outside Zone Boot-heavy offense + RPO + designed QB run/pass option + designed QB runs + play-action Dagger concept or Deep Comeback or Corner Post combo + easy throws on rolled pocket?

Might have something and worth it for a 5th round pick for sure. Honestly, wouldn’t hate a 4th round pick investment. I wouldn’t be shocked if this kid panned out (assuming the right offense).

———

And honestly, this kid clowns Trask as a prospect. He’s a better prospect than Trask in every way IMO (tape, metrics, certainly athletic and arm profile) and will end up being a 4th to 5th round pick.
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Cheb
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Cheb »

Let's watch some film!

Clayton versus USF


I mean, there's alot to like. He doesn't make many bad decisions, he throws an accurate ball particularly on the short stuff, he has enough foot speed to keep a defense honest but likely not awake at night. He's super experienced, which is a plus, and his athletic testing profile in all the predraft stuff is impressive.

But honestly, when you watch Clayton Tune play, do you see anything special? I don't. Most of his throws are to wide open dudes after easy reads, which is more a compliment to the offensive playcaller than it is to the quarterback. His arm certainly doesn't jump off the screen, and he tends to float balls that go further than 20 yards. He threw for nearly 400 yards and 4 touchdowns in that game versus USF, and I was largely unimpressed watching him do so. Beating up against subpar competition also doesn't impress me much.

Let's increase that level of competition and see what happens, shall we? Here he is in one of his very few career games versus Power 5 competition, versus Texas Tech from last year:



Was he pressured? Yeah. Did he wilt like a flower under that pressure? Also yeah. For the curious, his passing stat line here was 27 for 38 for 174 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs.

Big Yikes from me dawg. There's a reason he's projected to be a fifth-ish rounder despite all those stats and how well he tested at the combine, and I think it's because he's an average player.

There's a way to refer to consistently productive running backs who despite open holes don't have the inherent juice to hit those explosive runs; if you block him for one or two yards, he'll get you three -- if you block him for six or eight, he'll still get you three. Clayton Tune is like that, but for quarterbacks.
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Snake »

A+ name
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Nobody »

@Cheb

I think you're looking at 2021 vs TT, not 2022.

Maybe you haven't seen enough tape on this kid, but there are absolute off-platform ropes. This is a good breakdown of the blustery conditions of the Independence Bowl (very suboptimal throwing conditions). Check out the throw at 3:37; 26 yard Corner route rope against a small-window 2 Zone off-platform and going left. That is an impressive throw. Check out the full field-read, Deep Comeback on his 3rd progression (13:57) coming all the way back to the other side. A bad conditions, Comeback on your 3rd prog is a throw.

And again, the other thing two things I like are his ability to make plays with his feet (you see it all over the rest of his tape...check out his designed runs...he absolutely can "get there," force missed tackles in the open field, and have balance through contact to shed people for extra yardage) + the compact, efficient stroke. The ball is up and out.

His tape is littered with pocket-climbing, off-platform dimes down the field so that isn't remotely the worries with this kid. The worries with this kid are:

* Look at the happy feet. He clearly hates sitting idly in the pocket. Which is why I think this is a good offense for him. If its like Seattle has run historically and like they did last year, he's going to have an outsized number of snaps where the pocket is rolling, he's sprinting, he's booting, RPO-ing, easy max-protect play-action reads, and he's throwing off platform without without having to go through progressions in the pocket for 20+ snaps a game.

But that happy feet needs to be cleaned up. When the feet aren't happy, his base is fantastic. But the feet are far too happy far too often. He just looks like a QB that wants to escape the pocket.

* Anticipation issues. Like the 2nd throw on this tape. Either he doesn't see the Hole defender or he doesn't think he'll be able to make that play. You have to be able to be able to manipulate Hole defenders or anticipate Hole defender releationships with the Over route behind them to get the ball out of danger and where it needs to be. There isn't much of this on his tape, but this is a sort of Jameis-like play that you don't want to see (but again...this isn't something that marred his career).

But, of course, then you get the Deep Over at 21 minutes of the above film that defies "Anticipation Issues."

EDIT - Last thing. The other issue I see on tape for him is his tendency to turn down layups for Big Boy throws downfield. That might be a feature of the hierarchy of reading out plays in the Houston offense. Don't know. But it absolutely shows up. There are easy pitch-and-catch opportunities that he eschews for down-the-field throws. That won't be much of an issue in this offense (assuming its similar to the Seattle offense) because I don't anticipate there being an outsized allotment of full-field reads and long and layered progressions out of a static pocket.

+++++++++++++++

So anyway, they're projecting 5th to 6th round for this kid. I'm seeing a Minshew, Heinicke like prospect. Ability to square shoulders quickly and throw off platform both ways, an abundance of downfield throws (and there are plenty on tape that aren't large window throws), enough juice to make throws like that 26 yard rope of a Corner (off-platform and going the wrong way) against 2 Zone, compact and efficient stroke, shows some ability to go through progs and hit a Comeback after a full field read, can hurt you with his feet (especially if unaccounted for).

But with happy feet which can sometimes lead to deep balls drifting a hair (but when you see it on tape its not "a hair in danger" its "a hair to the boundary"), a little too much willingness to escape (this could be a symptom of a poor Houston OLine), some anticipation issues and/or too much trust of his arm to fit some Over routes in.

If they spend a 5th on the kid, I won't be mad. If they spend a 6th on the kid I would be delighted. If they spend a 4th I'd probably cringe a bit but I'd have to see who is on the board (there is some iDL and Safety and iOL talent that might fall a bit toward the 4th).
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MJW
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by MJW »

This is a good write-up.

I don't really like the way the ball comes out of his hand, and I worry if he has the raw arm strength to get the out routes or the comebacks where they need to be.

I see a guy who probably has a future in Canada or Spring Ball.
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Nobody »

vs 12-2 Tulane this year:



* 11 yard boundary Hitch which looks like against 3 Zone. Everything is great here (read, mechanics, ball) except timing and anticipation. That ball should be out and in the air at the top of the WR's stem. Its a hair late, but everything outside of that is perfect.

* Looks like this is probably a vertical combo (probably some kind of Post Combo or Post Wheel as they like to run) against 3 Zone. Obviously can't tell the coverage on the first two reads, but he bails pocket left after the LT loses to an arm over and kills the play.

* Looks like 3 Zone Buzz to the bottom of the screen. Quick loss inside by the LG and man in his face. Gets the ball over the Hole but the CB makes the PBU. A gap pressure right off the bat so you have to give some of that credit for the lack of great ball placement, but this ball should be better placed. Puts it in a little bit of danger.

* RT loses badly so bails the pocket left to evade the Sack and nets 3 to get to 2nd and 7.

* Alright, this is good. Looks like boundary Fade Stop vs 3 Zone Bail from Tight. Good read, good anticipation, solid ball placement (well out of danger) to convert 2nd and long.

* Well, it looks like Tulane likes to play a lot of 3 Zone. Can't be sure, but this looks like 3 Zone again. Single at the bottom of the Screen doesn't do anything to influence the Flat defender (probably a vert as they love their verts in this offense) who is driving on that Z going Jet Motion to Swing. This is not a good play by your QB here. The Flat defender is driving on that Swing all the way and there is just nothing to influence the defender and nothing good can come from this checkdown. This is where you'd like to see him go off-script and make a play.

* You'd expect Match Quarters or 2 Read against this 2 x 2, but it looks like more 3 Zone here. Weird scheming defensively. Anyway, goes through progressions, apparently doesn't like what he sees downfield (who knows here), doesn't like the RB Flare against the Flat defender so he escapes vertically and picks up about 13 on 3rd and 6.

+++++++++++++++

That is all I have time for for now.
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Doctor
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Doctor »

But does he have baby hands?
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mdb1958
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by mdb1958 »

Doctor wrote: Thu Apr 06, 2023 8:48 pm But does he have baby hands?
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by mdb1958 »

Big Baker 9.25
Trask 10.13
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_MB_
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by _MB_ »

Good thread
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mdb1958
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by mdb1958 »

I quit thinking of drafting him when Baker was signed. Snagging him off of a practice squad might be a good thing.
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Grahamburn »

Is there a Hendon Hooker breakdown in our future? They sure seem to be flirting with him a lot.
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Re: Clayton Tune; QB Houston

Post by Nobody »

Grahamburn wrote: Sun Apr 09, 2023 12:18 pm Is there a Hendon Hooker breakdown in our future? They sure seem to be flirting with him a lot.
I’m catching a flight in 45 minutes and I’ll be out of country for a few weeks so nothing from me for a bit.

Maybe I’ll take a look at Hooker’s tape when I get back right before the draft.

For Tune I just briefly heard about him and that we might be interested. Given that he’s a 6th round pick-ish with off-platform arm talent (no idea where folks are getting that he can’t make all the throws; look at that Deep Corner rope into a tight window 2 Zone while booting left that I linked above), that is mobile and can square up and throw from boot both ways.

Seems like exactly the kind of buy low prospect for an Stretch/Outside Zone, boot-heavy offense with manufactured throws on designed pocket rolls/sprints and easy max-protect PA reads.

Tune definitely has holes (as I mentioned above), but as a late round pick that often isn’t rostered, that seems like the kind of thing I might expect if they were to go QB.

If they go QB (AGAIN) with another premium pick that isn’t a high end prospect? Holy hell. I don’t have an opinion on Hooker right now, but that would be absolute dumbassery.

But if the arrow starts pointing there, I’ll look at tape and metrics and throw out a rough opinion when I return from overseas.

EDIT - Looked at Hooker briefly. I see:

* 3 and 4 vert, Air Coryell, offense that looks nothing like I anticipate us running under Canales.

* Holy cow talk about throwing to massive windows. I have found one NFL level window on his highlights. He’s throwing to guys open by 7+ yards everywhere.

* Stroke isn’t quite as compact/efficient as you’d like to see from a premium pick (Trask was same deal…but Hooker’s stroke isn’t too bad…not a reconstruct project like Trask). But its solid/ok.

* Gorgeous ball, easy velocity, beautiful trajectory on deep throws.

* Clearly doesn’t run to pass. If he breaks the pocket, he seems to be looking to make a play with his feet. You see a lot of clean pockets and easy throws from there on hid tape. Not much at all in the way of off-platform throws on his highlights.

* Pressure converts to Sacks against him at an enormous clip. You just don’t see it much as you see a lot of clean pockets and easy reads and throws.

* While Pressure to Sacks is awful, his Turnover-Worthy Play rate is fantastic (but hard to tell his much that is an artifact of his protection and the wide open throws this offense generates.

* Fresh ACL injury and old player (25?).

————

This looks like a player that Arians would love for an Arians offense. Unclear why this would be the pick, especially premium and given all the above, for a different offense.

This kid sans ACL would have made a lot more sense than Trask in round 2 a few years ago though, I’ll say that. Just sheer, non-contextual optics, he absolutely looks the part of an NFL QB.
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