Welcome Calijah Kancey

[Doctor]

Torrence weight concerns me. He could be BPA if we stay put but there are a dozen guys still on the board I'd rather have.

[real bucs fan]

Great pick. He was on my short list.

But it just kills me we passed on Branch.

Kills me we passed on Harrison and Torrence (although Torrence is still on the board). There are gaping holes on the O-Line, but Licht went D-Line again. That tells me he either thinks Hall is a bust in the making or Bowles was dickriding him.

None of the OL on the board were worth 19.

We’ll get an OL today almost guaranteed.

[Doctor]

Day 2 Shortlist

Brian Branch











BJ Ojulari
Kelee Ringo
Dewand Jones
Matt Bergeron
Darnell Washington
Adetomiwa Adebawore
Tuli Tuipulotu
Cody Mauch
O'Cyrus Torrence

[njdungeoneer]

Picture Kancey going against a Donovan Smith type tackle, with Vea getting doubled. He should be in the backfield all day long. I had only heard his name prior to the draft, so I didn't know anything about him. But watching some highlight tape I could see how he could be a force with the Bucs DLine. We needed at least one DLineman and he is a super fast and quick one.

[Cheb]

So I just spent some morning treadmill time on watching Kancey against West Virginia and Tennessee this year. He's toolsy at times for sure, but quite inconsistent on a snap-to-snap basis. He's by far his best when he is asked to penetrate instead of holding a gap, as he can get easily stalled and washed out when asked to belly up to guys who have fifty pounds on him, and who can blame him when he does? If we play to his strengths and encourage thoughtful rush plans so that he flashes more regularly, I think he has Pro Bowl potential. Here's the stuff I was watching in case you also wanted to view some full games of his instead of just highlights:

[Snake]

he needs to execute perfectly to not be taken out of plays. short arms, no girth to hold his own if he doesn't win immediately.

boom or bust to me.

[Nobody]

Curious why you would say the above?

The evidence (including the very limited contact between he and the Bucs that he cites in the interview) points in the opposite direction; that the Bucs were expecting him to go iDL2 to Seattle, Detroit, or Philly and the way the draft sorted itself out (because of Detroit’s dumbassery and Carter dropping primarily), he fell to the Bucs (who weren’t expecting him to be there).

Its pretty clear that Big Boards were all over the place this year, but there were absolutely informed people out there who had Kancey as the 2nd prospect at a premium position with 3-4 teams needing that position early.

How do you see us using him since he's pretty clearly a 3tech and a 3tech only?

I would say "don't look at iDL like that anymore."

This game is now a processing-heavy, matchup, exploit (matchups, tendencies, personnel groupings, situations, analytics, etc) league on both sides of the ball. Kancey isn't a 3-tech like Sapp was 25 years ago.

What I would guess Bowles saw is a piece that he could use creatively in multiple subpackages and in multiple ways to create a lot of havoc to offenses:

* His snap anticipation, burst, and depth after that burst (with respect to everyone else up front) is absolutely turbo-charged. That_is_a_problem for the other side whether you line up heads-up over a Guard/Tackle or in A, B, or outside the Tackle. And he lined up in all of those places at Pitt (but with the most snaps being heads-up on a Guard or B gap).

* Forget the length for a moment. Guys with length either (a) lose first contact or (b) suck with their hands (either violence or coordination or technique) all the time. Neither of those are true with Kancey. He wins first contact pretty much all the time and his hands are violent, coordinated, and technically advanced in his employment of them. The number of snaps where he wins first contact with a Guard who have no time to anchor and reset their hands after a mis-strike > Kancey slaps/chops to arm-over for a clean win? Its all over his tape. And against legit NFL prospects at Guard that will be drafted.

* His processing + pass rush plan + pass rush suite (both variety and effectiveness) is extremely uncommon to enter the league with.

* Yeah, he's got that explosivitiy north and south, but this is way more Sapp than McCoy. He can get east/west (authentically or with a fake) and change-direction or get upfield too. You know where that will be a big weapon? Bowles huge package (/giggety) of Stunts/Twists and 2nd level blitzes behind them after an OL has been drawn out of position. Kancey's quickness, hands + general threat will absolutely open White, LVD, Winfield, etc on 2nd level blitzes behind Stunts/Twists...or his adjacent line-mates when they loop around him.

* What about lining him up at 7 tech on the "escape the pocket" side of running QBs (typically the QB's right) and let him just speed to power, quarter the RT, and dominate up the arc, collapsing the pocket and keeping the QB from escaping right?

++++++++++++++

The only thing Kancey doesn't give us is the ability to go super light box on early downs with only a pair of mega-beefy, dominant big-boy iDL. Although, it wouldn't surprise me if Bowles still used him that way and just relied upon shenanigans and activated Safeties in the run game.

So, TLDR, expect him to be used in a lot of ways from a lot of sub-packages, from a lot of techniques. This is an advanced player already whose strengths (absurd omnidirectional explosivity at size, incredible leverage played with, incredible hand-usage) nullify their primary weakness (length) in the actual play of the game (at least they did in the NCAA...we'll see if that holds true next level). No, he's not holding up to 4 hands on him in the run game. If he gets doubled with set hands, he'll get dog-walked (but almost everybody will). But they'll rely upon his snap anticipation, explosiveness, and ability to win first strike and make a calamity of Guards trying to reset their hands (because they've already lost).

[Kress]

Okay, clearly I need to say it again for those who just came in the room so I'll make it bigger...

THIS IS WHY YOU DRAFT BPA.

You don't pass on Warren Sapp because you have Chris Hovan. When you can land a player you think can be that for you, you get a player like that. Period.

Kancey being a baller is completely independent of Hall. And to try to use it as a way of moving the needle on Hall after just one year insane.

No matter how big you make it, you still have to acknowledge that there is no such rule. It always depends.

You don't pass on Sapp because you have Hovan, sure. But do you draft Hovan if you already have a young Sapp there? Or do you spend your first pick on Kancey if you already have Sapp lining up next to Vea?

Take it one further. Give KC 7 picks today, plus the first 3 overall picks in each of the next two years. No matter how good the players are, how many quarterbacks do you think they take?

[Navybuc]

The whole draft by BPA is a crock of shit. That’s something you do in the later rounds. Rounds 1-3 it’s more about evaluating what you need most combined with the draft depth at that position. For example, if the Bucs feel that OL is their biggest need but the class is deep and they can get a starter they like in rd 2 or 3, they can look into a DL. If they wanted BPA, Levis or Branch is prolly the pick. I don’t think Klancey was BPA, but that’s just my thought.

Not to mention a team like Indy…AR wasn’t BPA when they picked, but it was the position they most needed so they went with with qb they had #1 on board because the position lacked depth in this draft.

To make that incredibly long story short…it’s a combo of factors, not just BPA.

[_MB_]

It's BPA at a position of need. That's how you do it.

[Snake]

Gaines Adams over Adrian Peterson. It'll never not make me mad.

[_MB_]

Gaines Adams over Adrian Peterson. It'll never not make me mad.

Post hoc

Nobody knew what was going to happen with Adams and Peterson was coming out during a plug and play RB era (Denver, Carolina, GB)

You can't analyze like that. There's a solid rationalization for every player in the first round.

[Snake]

I just wanted one of Johnson, Thomas, Willis, or Peterson. I actually had Thomas at a distance 4th. So I don’t claim to know everything.

I just didn’t have Adams even close to that group.

One of Monty’s fuck ups.

[Jonny]

So, TLDR, expect him to be used in a lot of ways from a lot of sub-packages, from a lot of techniques. This is an advanced player already whose strengths (absurd omnidirectional explosivity at size, incredible leverage played with, incredible hand-usage) nullify their primary weakness (length) in the actual play of the game (at least they did in the NCAA...we'll see if that holds true next level). No, he's not holding up to 4 hands on him in the run game. If he gets doubled with set hands, he'll get dog-walked (but almost everybody will). But they'll rely upon his snap anticipation, explosiveness, and ability to win first strike and make a calamity of Guards trying to reset their hands (because they've already lost).

This is exactly what I see from him as well. When you are so damn good at one thing, which is penetrate, his run defense approach can be molded into "go F up that play" instead of the orthodox approach of keeping the blocker in place to free up LBs.

For the Bucs during Brady era, where we had an average run blocking O-line, penetrating D-linemen have always been a terror to run against due to guys like Grady Jarrett and Donald f'ing up the play in the backfield. Whether he is as successful as them or not, his play style is extremely similar.

[Doctor]

I love how people try to "disprove" BPA by zeroing in on the QB position, instead of realizing how it's the outlier that proves the rule.

[Navybuc]

I love how people try to "disprove" BPA by zeroing in on the QB position, instead of realizing how it's the outlier that proves the rule.

Do you think Kancey is better than Nolan Smith? I sure as hell hope so because if he goes to the Eagles and becomes a stud like everyone think he will and our guy flops….that’s gonna be a tough one to swallow. I thought Smith was by far the better player from watching tape…and we need pass rushers…but I’m willing to give Kancey a chance and hope he proves everyone wrong. I don’t hate the pick…and I just thought we coulda done better, that’s all. But time will tell.

[Doctor]

I had them on the same tier.

Only player I truly above Kancey was Branch.

[Buc2]

I love how people try to "disprove" BPA by zeroing in on the QB position, instead of realizing how it's the outlier that proves the rule.

Do you think Kancey is better than Nolan Smith? I sure as hell hope so because if he goes to the Eagles and becomes a stud like everyone think he will and our guy flops….that’s gonna be a tough one to swallow. I thought Smith was by far the better player from watching tape…and we need pass rushers…but I’m willing to give Kancey a chance and hope he proves everyone wrong. I don’t hate the pick…and I just thought we coulda done better, that’s all. But time will tell.

Um, you don't have a choice.

[Navybuc]

Do you think Kancey is better than Nolan Smith? I sure as hell hope so because if he goes to the Eagles and becomes a stud like everyone think he will and our guy flops….that’s gonna be a tough one to swallow. I thought Smith was by far the better player from watching tape…and we need pass rushers…but I’m willing to give Kancey a chance and hope he proves everyone wrong. I don’t hate the pick…and I just thought we coulda done better, that’s all. But time will tell.

Um, you don't have a choice.

Haha well I’m moving up near Jacksonville in a couple of years so I could hop on the Trevor Train.

[Miller4Prez64]

The problem with BPA is there is never a true consensus about it. The Bucs could have had Kancey as BPA and the team in front and behind us could have had a day 2 grade on him. Sometimes there is some obviously insane prospects that are hard to pass up, but those players don’t make it to pick 19. It’s more about the best player available for your team rather than the most talented player on the board regardless of position.

[Backside]

Um, you don't have a choice.

Haha well I’m moving up near Jacksonville in a couple of years so I could hop on the Trevor Train.

Is that how it works for other people? I couldn't change my allegiances if I tried. Geography has nothing to do with it.

[real bucs fan]

Think Kancey was decent enough value at 19 not to sweat it. Boom/Bust type to be sure, but late teens early 20s was his range. I said the whole process I wanted to get the best defender available assuming the 4 OTs were gone and clearly thats what we think we did. Not a need per se, but if he’s pressuring the QB consistently then it will be. Improving the pass rush was an obvious goal, just improving our edges seemed like the obvious way to do it.

[Navybuc]

Haha well I’m moving up near Jacksonville in a couple of years so I could hop on the Trevor Train.

Is that how it works for other people? I couldn't change my allegiances if I tried. Geography has nothing to do with it.

Who knows. I’ve moved 15 times the last 20 years. Stayed a Bucs fan. But it’s all about feel. Who knows how you’ll feel about another team when you move to that area. Never lost that feeling before on any other move so I doubt I will again. But I do like what the Jags are doing. I think Pederson is one of best HC in NFL while we’re stuck with Toilet Bowles. And they got a guy last night that I thought we coulda used.

[BuccaNOLEer]

Kills me we passed on Harrison and Torrence (although Torrence is still on the board). There are gaping holes on the O-Line, but Licht went D-Line again. That tells me he either thinks Hall is a bust in the making or Bowles was dickriding him.

None of the OL on the board were worth 19.

We’ll get an OL today almost guaranteed.

Harrison was worth a 19, or at least a trade down a few spots. A lot of previous mock drafts had him projected to Tampa. And there's no one on this team that can start at LT and be productive from day one. And don't think about moving Wirfs. That rarely works out. He's fine where he is.

[Buc2]

Um, you don't have a choice.

Haha well I’m moving up near Jacksonville in a couple of years so I could hop on the Trevor Train.

Boooo!

[BuccaNOLEer]

Um, you don't have a choice.

Haha well I’m moving up near Jacksonville in a couple of years so I could hop on the Trevor Train.

DUU-VAL!!!!!! Those guy are nuts. And Jacksonville smells like someone farted over the entire city.

[Kress]

I love how people try to "disprove" BPA by zeroing in on the QB position, instead of realizing how it's the outlier that proves the rule.

I know you're really trying to prop up your point here, given the number of times you've professed it in 97-point bold font, but still....
Inappropriate use of the phrase "zeroing in." 15 yards, loss of down.

No matter how big you make it, you still have to acknowledge that there is no such rule. It always depends.

You don't pass on Sapp because you have Hovan, sure. But do you draft Hovan if you already have a young Sapp there? Or do you spend your first pick on Kancey if you already have Sapp lining up next to Vea?

Take it one further. Give KC 7 picks today, plus the first 3 overall picks in each of the next two years. No matter how good the players are, how many quarterbacks do you think they take?

[Navybuc]

Haha well I’m moving up near Jacksonville in a couple of years so I could hop on the Trevor Train.

DUU-VAL!!!!!! Those guy are nuts. And Jacksonville smells like someone farted over the entire city.

Indeed it does. I’d be south in St Johns and near the beach so at least we can smell salt water instead of trash.

[Central_Buc]

So I just spent some morning treadmill time on watching Kancey against West Virginia and Tennessee this year. He's toolsy at times for sure, but quite inconsistent on a snap-to-snap basis. He's by far his best when he is asked to penetrate instead of holding a gap, as he can get easily stalled and washed out when asked to belly up to guys who have fifty pounds on him, and who can blame him when he does? If we play to his strengths and encourage thoughtful rush plans so that he flashes more regularly, I think he has Pro Bowl potential. Here's the stuff I was watching in case you also wanted to view some full games of his instead of just highlights:

Do you think him adding weight would hurt or help given what he adds?

[Doctor]

The problem with BPA is there is never a true consensus about it. The Bucs could have had Kancey as BPA and the team in front and behind us could have had a day 2 grade on him. Sometimes there is some obviously insane prospects that are hard to pass up, but those players don’t make it to pick 19. It’s more about the best player available for your team rather than the most talented player on the board regardless of position.

Indeed. BPA isn't universal, which is also why its often talked about in tiers.

For example MY BPA was Branch. It wasn't JLs, which is fine. JL can have a different BPA, hell he knows far more than I. And I absolutely don't mind going with his BPA over my BPA.

The point isn't so much about having identical boards but more so adhering to the philosophy of not passing on exceptional players for lesser players just because the depth chart at that position looks then at that moment in time. Consensus is not a requirement of the philosophy. On the contrary, GMs that puts more faith in the opinions and evaluations of outsiders instead of his and his own team don't last long.

[Snake]

So I just spent some morning treadmill time on watching Kancey against West Virginia and Tennessee this year. He's toolsy at times for sure, but quite inconsistent on a snap-to-snap basis. He's by far his best when he is asked to penetrate instead of holding a gap, as he can get easily stalled and washed out when asked to belly up to guys who have fifty pounds on him, and who can blame him when he does? If we play to his strengths and encourage thoughtful rush plans so that he flashes more regularly, I think he has Pro Bowl potential. Here's the stuff I was watching in case you also wanted to view some full games of his instead of just highlights:

Do you think him adding weight would hurt or help given what he adds?

It can only help, imo.

Elite explosion shouldn’t be affected by some good girth.

[Nobody]

Here is the thing about adding weight. Simply adding more (even if it doesn’t impact your explosivitey indices) doesn’t always translate to better. You can add weight that (a) actually decreases your play leverage as your power to weight ratio suffers and/or (b) increases your opponent’s functional target area. Sometimes these two are even correlated (and the arrow can go either/both ways).

One of Kancey’s primary tools is (i) his small target area, (ii) compounded by his quickness and current leverage profile, and (iii) his extremely advanced hand usage (he wins a lot via first contact and/or clearing his pads against misplaced strikes that need a reset). More weight/size could negatively impact one or two of those.

So I don’t know that Kancey needs to get bigger (given his play profile) and I can just as easily see extra size working against him (even if he retains his explosiveness).

EDIT - The above is also a case being made that Kancey is closer to maxing out (lower ceiling) than one might like. His game absolutely relies in key ways on his present leverage and size profile.

[uscbucsfan1]

AD actually lost a ton of fat and added a ton of muscle. Helped him keep his speed and strength.

I trust in our trainers to make that decision.

[Phantom]

Wait… is that real USC? If so what happened to the original username?


Anyway I hope Kancey proves me wrong

[Kress]

Wait… is that real USC? If so what happened to the original username?

Wondering the same thing.