QB Prospects Breakdowns

[Nobody]

I'm going to slowly (a trickle really) do some work on a few particular prospects. I'm not going to cover every potential prospect. I'm going to only target a specific handful. Williams and Maye are out because they will be out of reach. My time is pretty limited, my interest is similarly limited, and I need to fully acquaint myself with players because I'm coming in having watched about one game each of these players (and that is it).

These are the four I'm going to focus exclusively on:

Jayden Daniels LSU

Bo Nix Oregon

Michael Penix Jr Washington

JJ McCarthy Michigan

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Here is how I'm going to start. I'm going to frame my overwhelmingly immature thoughts on these players with concerns that I have for each player. This is only zoomed-out concerns right here. I'll get into further breakdowns, game tape review, etc later. Offsetting context/confounders will come out during that deeper dive (if the context/confounders are actually there). I just want to generate thoughts at the outset to frame my subsequent review of these prospects. This won't be in order with the above:


BO PENIX OREGON

* Age. He'll be 24.5 years old entering his NFL rookie season.

* Average Depth of Target is a paltry 6.9 (about 33-44 % lower than the rest of these guys). Generall and coming from the Oregon offense specifically, this is a warning sign of "offensive numbers and contribution are inflated via high percentage of Screen game + RAC."

* His Big Time Throw % is brutal compared to the rest, which also comports with the concern in the bullet point above.

These last two are big areas of concern for me; production (or lack of exposing weaknesses) as an artifact of scheme that doesn't reflect NFL play.


MICHAEL PENIX JR

* Age. He'll be 24.5 years old entering his NFL rookie season.

* Uneven play. He's mixed in some poor outings with solid and brilliant play.

* Play Under Pressure falls off extremely when contrasted with play that isn't Under Pressure and it appears that he has had a lot of good protection at Washington. In the NFL, you're either (a) going to be Under Pressure a lot or (b) you're going to have to get the ball out very quickly in order to avoid said Pressure.


JAYDEN DANIELS

* Time to Throw is very high as well as Pressure Converted to Sack Rate. This is combined with a HUGE number of recorded Scrambles; 55 (contrast with Nix's 20 and Penix's 6). This makes me seriously wonder (a) how much of his production is an artifact of play-lengthening, off-schedule play-making and (b) how often is he the responsible party when it comes to that Pressure converting to Sacks.

* Extraordinary light frame. The expectation of standing up to the Big Boy contact you will invariably see at the NFL at this frame size is a huge gamble. If he's going to play the way he appears to play, and hold up, he almost surely needs to put on a nice chunk of good weight...and will his play suffer for it or maintain?

* Looks like some established concussion history? Always a concern (particularly for QBs that put themselves at risk of contact).


JJ MCCARTHY

* Only about 67 % of the dropbacks of these other prospects in this season. His sample-size is curated. Such a curated sample-size is both a real concern and an area for speculation (why are we curating so much if this is "The Dude").

* Despite that curation and that lower % of dropbacks, his Turnover-Worthy-Plays (TWP) is a higher total and % of these other players. Concerning. However, the real issue is these appear to come in bunches.

* Related to the above, you see some serious uneven play. He'll have 0, 0, 0 (TWP) in games and then a big chunk of TWPs in a game. That sort of play paradigm is what generates a lot of regular season wins and then gets you bounced in the playoffs (I give you one Josh Allen).


++++++++++++++++++++

Alright, that is good enough for now. These are cautionary concerns generally and also some questions I need answering down the line when I look into their game tape and then frame their overall play with the context of their tape and their good metrics (of which each of these players have a ton of really good metrics to bulwark their case for drafting).

[Cheb]

I might piggyback on this thread with quarterback breakdowns as well, for my own edification if nothing else. Like it or not, I think the chances of us drafting a quarterback in the first round are greater than 80%.

[Snake]

I might piggyback on this thread with quarterback breakdowns as well, for my own edification if nothing else. Like it or not, I think the chances of us drafting a quarterback in the first round are greater than 80%.

Sames.

[Grahamburn]

Excited to read all of your contributions. Appreciate the work.

[mdb1958]

Kaidon Salter - if we can get him cheap or free.

Full screen please - watch him shoot his guns after scoring. crazy lol


https://www.espn.com/college-football/p ... don-salter

[Cheb]

Kaidon Salter - if we can get him cheap or free.

Full screen please - watch him shoot his guns after scoring. crazy lol


https://www.espn.com/college-football/p ... don-salter

He's a sophomore at a small school. Hold your horses, mdb.

[Doctor]

I might piggyback on this thread with quarterback breakdowns as well, for my own edification if nothing else. Like it or not, I think the chances of us drafting a quarterback in the first round are greater than 80%.

Given where we're likely picking and how talented the class is I'm inclined to agree. If nothing else Day 2. This class screams of "a guy some thought could be the 3rd QB off the board" falling really far and then him being an absolute stud.

I look forward to your thread Nobody. My two favorite QBs are likely going back to school, so this will be great.

[Doctor]

Kaidon Salter - if we can get him cheap or free.

Full screen please - watch him shoot his guns after scoring. crazy lol


https://www.espn.com/college-football/p ... don-salter

He's a sophomore at a small school. Hold your horses, mdb.

mdb only has one speed... erratic.

[Babeinbucland]

Lol

[Nobody]

Couple thoughts on what might be emergent confounders to my concerns expressed above for Daniels and McCarthy:

DANIELS

* He shows the ability to routinely and effectively process presnap, go through progressions quickly and effectively post-snap, and get the ball out, with anticipation and with appropriate ball placement. That would put his adlibbing as a weapon and a fallback rather than an instinct that short-circuits normative play.


MCCARTHY

* His uneven play and TWP frequency are revealed to be an outgrowth of throwing the football in a disproportionate frequency of poor, duress-filled situations; 3rd and medium to long after the run game failed 1st/2nd down or put in 2 minute drill with minimal time and lots of distance to cover after barely throwing the football in 1st half.

[mdb1958]

Kaidon Salter - if we can get him cheap or free.

Full screen please - watch him shoot his guns after scoring. crazy lol


https://www.espn.com/college-football/p ... don-salter

He's a sophomore at a small school. Hold your horses, mdb.

Will Bo Nix play in the Fiesta Bowl?

[Buc2]

He's a sophomore at a small school. Hold your horses, mdb.

Will Bo Nix play in the Fiesta Bowl?

You should ask him.

https://twitter.com/bonix10?lang=en

[mdb1958]

Will Bo Nix play in the Fiesta Bowl?

You should ask him.

https://twitter.com/bonix10?lang=en

Not on it. Plus was just seeking an opinion from Cheb.

[mdb1958]

Will Bo Nix play in the Fiesta Bowl?

You should ask him.

https://twitter.com/bonix10?lang=en

```

[SaggyBallZ]

@mdb1958 what do you think of Mount Union's QB - Braxton Plunk? He set the DIV III all time passing mark at 14,599 yards

The last Mount Union QB to get a shot at a Pro-Camp was Jim Ballard I think (1993 - Dolphins)

[mdb1958]

@mdb1958 what do you think of Mount Union's QB - Braxton Plunk? He set the DIV III all time passing mark at 14,599 yards

The last Mount Union QB to get a shot at a Pro-Camp was Jim Ballard I think (1993 - Dolphins)

burmp

[Cheb]

You should ask him.

https://twitter.com/bonix10?lang=en

Not on it. Plus was just seeking an opinion from Cheb.

I've spent the last few weeks in Mexico on vacation with my wife, headed back today.

I'll get into QB breakdowns soon enough. As far as whether Nix should play, if I were to counsel an athlete on whether they should play, I would tell them that unless their team is in the playoffs they should skip it. Don't wanna be the next Jake Butt.

[mdb1958]

Not on it. Plus was just seeking an opinion from Cheb.

I've spent the last few weeks in Mexico on vacation with my wife, headed back today.

I'll get into QB breakdowns soon enough. As far as whether Nix should play, if I were to counsel an athlete on whether they should play, I would tell them that unless their team is in the playoffs they should skip it. Don't wanna be the next Jake Butt.

Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out how do you slay the giant at Oregon.

[Buc2]

I've spent the last few weeks in Mexico on vacation with my wife, headed back today.

I'll get into QB breakdowns soon enough. As far as whether Nix should play, if I were to counsel an athlete on whether they should play, I would tell them that unless their team is in the playoffs they should skip it. Don't wanna be the next Jake Butt.

Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out how do you slay the giant at Oregon.

That’s Liberty’s problem now. I bet none of their players skip this game.

[Nobody]

Quick update on this. I'm waiting until the season to fully play out to begin any further homework on the QBs.

I obviously won't be doing any QB eval if it looks like One-Buc is going to sign Mayfield to an extension.

[Kress]

My two favorite QBs are likely going back to school

Who dey?

[Doctor]

Sanders and Ewers.

[Grahamburn]

Price check on Joe Milton? Just saw he’s entering the draft.

Seems like a nice developmental player if we re-sign Baker to a 3 year deal.

[Snake]

I’ll be tuning into Michigan V Alabama tonight with special attention being paid to JJ McCarthy

[Grahamburn]

I’ll be tuning into Michigan V Alabama tonight with special attention being paid to JJ McCarthy

Not a great start. Lucky kid went out of bounds.

[Phantom]

I’ll be tuning into Michigan V Alabama tonight with special attention being paid to JJ McCarthy

Not a great start. Lucky kid went out of bounds.

Its only 1st quarter.

he played well though

[Cheb]

JJ McCarthy has played okay in this first half of the semifinal game, he got lucky on that interception being overturned on a technicality. Throwing two touchdowns in a half and sustaining drives on a Saban defense isn't easy.

The troubling part of his evaluation as a pro is that today (like always) would be a great time for him to take the game over and show he's an elite talent, but that just hasn't happened yet. He's been getting on base, but he ain't hitting home runs. Nothing wrong with getting on base. You can win alot of baseball games that way. But if you want to be a first round pick, socking a few dingers over the fence certainly helps.

Yeah, yeah, it's not part of the game plan, gotta lean on the run, et cetera. Still, my dude. Gotta flash.

[Grahamburn]

Argument is he doesn’t have to because of the D and run game, but if he was/is capable then he should.

And a pass woefully behind his receiver there.

[Phantom]

LOL ok

[Grahamburn]

LOL ok

What am I missing?

[Snake]

They don’t ask Mccarthy to do that much in terms of volume. but whenever they ask him to do it, he does it. He’s one of those prospects where you have to read between the lines a little bit to extrapolate his game.

[Cheb]

They don’t ask Mccarthy to do that much in terms of volume. but whenever they ask him to do it, he does it. He’s one of those prospects where you have to read between the lines a little bit to extrapolate his game.

Oh, I agree completely. There's just a lot of space between those lines we're reading, and most of that space is shadowy gray. And I wonder if my homerism may be coloring my potential reading.

[Phantom]

Michigan's receivers are not as impressive as Ohio State's amazing receivers, so there is that. Imagine McCarthy throwing to Harrison. Jr.

[Snake]

There’s traits, and there’s consistency. If I go to a baseball game to scout a player, and I get there late and I only see his last at bat, and during that at bat, he hits a 475 foot homer on the first pitch. What do I know about him?

I know he has a shit load of power. Look down at my piece of paper and write: “major league power.” But, maybe he’s got a ton of swing-and-miss in his game, and struck out the first three at bats on breaking balls in the dirt.

When I watch McCarthy, I see some NFL traits, but you need to squint or pay attention. They don’t really ask him to push the ball downfield. It’s a lot of bootleg stuff, stuff in the short to intermediate. Delivering it on-time, on-target. Totally understandable why. They’re working off the great run game that they have. If I go back and watch all of the film, which I plan on doing probably, there will be those sprinkled in throws where he demonstrates arm talent and pushes the ball.

There was one play tonight in particular that really stood out to me. Annnd I found it.



He’s not gonna be doing that in the NFL. But look at the athleticism. It’s an athleticism position now in the NFL. he also had some nice scrambles tonight and rushes for the first down. Check that box.

Athleticism, accuracy, processor.

[Snake]

Just a little taste of McCarthy.

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McCarthy directing traffic on the other side of the field while waiting for the TE to leak out, which he peaked at during the sprint out. Cheeky. I just found it cute.

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He's tough. That's a TD.

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This is the throw. Watch this over and over again. pressure in his face. real progression work here. dime in between two defenders. threads the needle.

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This throw has it all. Feels the pressure crashing the left side. Has the wheels to buy time and escape the pocket. keeps eyes downfield. threads the needle on a max effort throw.

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McCarthy sees the defender coming and knows he's going to get rocked in the face. He also sees a TE coming into an open window across the middle of the field, right behind this defender. He stands tough, waits a millisecond longer, for the congestion to clear and delivers an accurate strike (while taking a big hit). Kid is tough as nails.