Mike Evans Signed

[Snake]

Evans snap count and games played by year.

[Grahamburn]

You're expecting that trend to continue as he ages?

[Snake]

You're expecting that trend to continue as he ages?

One’s propensity for injuries doesn’t get better with age. I don’t expect it to get better. that’s for sure.

[Grahamburn]

You're expecting that trend to continue as he ages?

One’s propensity for injuries doesn’t get better with age. I don’t expect it to get better. that’s for sure.

Right. Neither will his production. You're paying top dollar for the downside of his career.

Ultimately I think all these guys want to see what their market is. There are several posts bashing the Bucs for not getting deals done, but that doesn't mean contracts weren't offered or they didn't try. Mike, Baker, and AWJr. probably all just said they wanted to see what they can get on the free market. Let's hope they give the Bucs an opportunity to match anything or counter terms.

[Bootz]

People treat age 30 as if it's some cliff that you fall off.

Let me as this, Chris Godwin will be 28 next week. Do you think he'll "get better" the next 2 seasons and then trend downward in 2026? Is that how it works?

[Grahamburn]

People treat age 30 as if it's some cliff that you fall off.

Let me as this, Chris Godwin will be 28 next week. Do you think he'll "get better" the next 2 seasons and then trend downward in 2026? Is that how it works?

Who said there's a cliff? I certainly didn't. And I'm not talking about Chris Godwin. I'm talking about Mike Evans. There are very few WRs who continue to be dominant at age 31+. Mike is going to be 31 at the START of this contract, and he wants top dollar. We can expect his production and availability to start declining. It's not likely he will continue to be dominant for anything but the first year or two of the deal. That has to carry weight in contract negotiations or the Bucs/Licht aren't doing their jobs.

[Snake]

The big concern is Mike will lose his ability to run by cornerbacks. It’s so integral to his game- beating guys down the sideline.

I wish I had access to player speed metrics. To see how this has trended for him the previous 3 years. I know he’s made a point to lose weight to become more mobile.

[Buc2]

Sapp, Raiders.
Dunn, Falcons.
Lynch, Broncos.


Yeeeaah, let’s not do it again.

For nostalgic purposes or for performance? Dunn is the only one out of that group who still played at a high level for an extended time after leaving. Dunn was still in his prime.

Mike is going to be 31 when the season starts. You might get 2 good/great years, but some team is going to be left without a chair on the back end when the music stops.

Love Mike. Want to sign him. But, if he’s asking for a monster deal, and he most certainly is, it’s ok if he goes elsewhere to get it.

I disagree.

Lynch played 4 seasons in Denver and was a Pro Bowler all 4 of those years. Statistically, yes...his best years were when he played in Tampa. But he wasn't that far off during his 4 seasons with the Broncos.

Sapp also played very well for his 4 years in Oakland. Again, not quite as good as his years in Tampa, but not so far off as you think.

[acmillis]

Fair enough, but none of those guys wanted solid contributor money. They wanted All-Pro money. Just like Mike Evans likely does. If he's being reasonable and we're not then that's a different story.

That being said I don't think our "window" is different than any other team that's going to be interested in him. I'd prefer he be a Buc as well. It's not my money and I don't really care, but I get why the front office might be hesitating.

This isn't a nostalgic business. It's a cutthroat performance based business.

What does our ideal contract for Mike Evans look like?

4/100/50

[Snake]

For nostalgic purposes or for performance? Dunn is the only one out of that group who still played at a high level for an extended time after leaving. Dunn was still in his prime.

Mike is going to be 31 when the season starts. You might get 2 good/great years, but some team is going to be left without a chair on the back end when the music stops.

Love Mike. Want to sign him. But, if he’s asking for a monster deal, and he most certainly is, it’s ok if he goes elsewhere to get it.

I disagree.

Lynch played 4 seasons in Denver and was a Pro Bowler all 4 of those years. Statistically, yes...his best years were when he played in Tampa. But he wasn't that far off during his 4 seasons with the Broncos.

Sapp also played very well for his 4 years in Oakland. Again, not quite as good as his years in Tampa, but not so far off as you think.

Lynch was a splash play machine in Denver.

[Grahamburn]

For nostalgic purposes or for performance? Dunn is the only one out of that group who still played at a high level for an extended time after leaving. Dunn was still in his prime.

Mike is going to be 31 when the season starts. You might get 2 good/great years, but some team is going to be left without a chair on the back end when the music stops.

Love Mike. Want to sign him. But, if he’s asking for a monster deal, and he most certainly is, it’s ok if he goes elsewhere to get it.

I disagree.

Lynch played 4 seasons in Denver and was a Pro Bowler all 4 of those years. Statistically, yes...his best years were when he played in Tampa. But he wasn't that far off during his 4 seasons with the Broncos.

Sapp also played very well for his 4 years in Oakland. Again, not quite as good as his years in Tampa, but not so far off as you think.

Sapp had one good year out of four in Oakland. Lynch making the Pro Bowl doesn't prove all that much. Neither of them were "bad" players after they left, but they weren't perennial All Pros anymore either.

That's the point.

Do you want to pay a guy for his past performance? That's the question we have to ask ourselves with Mike. His numbers WILL decline from his best years during this next contract. I don't know how anyone could dispute that. If we sign him we'll have to hope it isn't a steep decline the way Julio Jones was.

[Buc2]

I disagree.

Lynch played 4 seasons in Denver and was a Pro Bowler all 4 of those years. Statistically, yes...his best years were when he played in Tampa. But he wasn't that far off during his 4 seasons with the Broncos.

Sapp also played very well for his 4 years in Oakland. Again, not quite as good as his years in Tampa, but not so far off as you think.

Sapp had one good year out of four in Oakland. Lynch making the Pro Bowl doesn't prove all that much. Neither of them were "bad" players after they left, but they weren't perennial All Pros anymore either.

That's the point.

Do you want to pay a guy for his past performance? That's the question we have to ask ourselves with Mike. His numbers WILL decline from his best years during this next contract. I don't know how anyone could dispute that. If we sign him we'll have to hope it isn't a steep decline the way Julio Jones was.

I'll give you Sapp, but, even in hindsight, I'd still sign Lynch for those 4 years in Denver.

[Grahamburn]

Sapp had one good year out of four in Oakland. Lynch making the Pro Bowl doesn't prove all that much. Neither of them were "bad" players after they left, but they weren't perennial All Pros anymore either.

That's the point.

Do you want to pay a guy for his past performance? That's the question we have to ask ourselves with Mike. His numbers WILL decline from his best years during this next contract. I don't know how anyone could dispute that. If we sign him we'll have to hope it isn't a steep decline the way Julio Jones was.

I'll give you Sapp, but, even in hindsight, I'd still sign Lynch for those 4 years in Denver.

Those were some lean years...

[Jonny]

WR depth has been a consistent theme for the last few drafts. If there is one position where I'm okay with our front office being extremely savvy business acumen wise, it is the WR position.

[Backside]

I'm really not thinking about it in that way. I just want Mike Evans in a Buccaneer jersey. I guess it is good if the FO is looking at the bigger picture.

But I want to be an emotional fan, and I will be super bummed if he goes elsewhere.

[Snake]

And I’ll be honest, the sentimental stuff doesn’t weigh on me quite as much when I feel the team is gearing up for a legitimate Super Bowl run. I don’t look at the coaching staff or the roster matrix right now and think the team needs to be parsing out every cent for an edge (an edge that results in a guy like Evans leaving). But I also understand that it’s not my job on the line. if it were, I would be more cutthroat.

If we’re looking at 9-8 heaven again, I’d rather do it with legends and take the hit on the margins of the roster and give up some quality depth if necessary.

And a lot of this assumes Mike Evans will not continue to be an impact player. Pretty sure he will be next year. What, 75% chance he will be the following year? I always felt his lack of super duper elite counting statistics - specifically yards and total catches - undersold his impact.

[Primeminister]

And I’ll be honest, the sentimental stuff doesn’t weigh on me quite as much when I feel the team is gearing up for a legitimate Super Bowl run. I don’t look at the coaching staff or the roster matrix right now and think the team needs to be parsing out every cent for an edge (an edge that results in a guy like Evans leaving). But I also understand that it’s not my job on the line. if it were, I would be more cutthroat.

If we’re looking at 9-8 heaven again, I’d rather do it with legends and take the hit on the margins of the roster and give up some quality depth if necessary.

And a lot of this assumes Mike Evans will not continue to be an impact player. Pretty sure he will be next year. What, 75% chance he will be the following year? I always felt his lack of super duper elite counting statistics - specifically yards and total catches - undersold his impact.

This offense will feel the loss of Evans’ gravity. Mike is a walking 1st down & we can’t say that about anyone else on this roster.

[BuccaNOLEer]

I disagree.

Lynch played 4 seasons in Denver and was a Pro Bowler all 4 of those years. Statistically, yes...his best years were when he played in Tampa. But he wasn't that far off during his 4 seasons with the Broncos.

Sapp also played very well for his 4 years in Oakland. Again, not quite as good as his years in Tampa, but not so far off as you think.

Sapp had one good year out of four in Oakland. Lynch making the Pro Bowl doesn't prove all that much. Neither of them were "bad" players after they left, but they weren't perennial All Pros anymore either.

That's the point.

Do you want to pay a guy for his past performance? That's the question we have to ask ourselves with Mike. His numbers WILL decline from his best years during this next contract. I don't know how anyone could dispute that. If we sign him we'll have to hope it isn't a steep decline the way Julio Jones was.

His numbers may decline but I doubt they do next year. That's why you have to frontload this contract. That way if his performance does decline, you can let him go with a minimal cap hit.

[CannonFire]

Evans snap count and games played by year.

My thinking on this is that the Bucs ran the ball 50+ more times last year than in prior years. The Bucs were very offensive/pass heavy with QB's like Brady and Winston. You absolutely don't want Mayfield throwing the ball as much because he isn't that type of QB. In that environment, where you're going to run the ball more, you're going to call plays that are designed runs more often. Why put Evans out there when you have a guy like Godwin and a pretty solid pass catching TE like Otton that can catch the ball if an audible is necessary? If playing 70% to 80% of the snaps results in a 1200 yard/12 TD season, I'm ok with that.

Of course, the argument would be "How do we know he'll continue to do that?" My response is, if we're re-signing Mayfield who's dependent on Evans, then there's no reason to not expect it. If you don't get those results, then your problem is a lot deeper than the WR, as it extends to the QB because he can't get anyone else the ball.

[Babeinbucland]

And I’ll be honest, the sentimental stuff doesn’t weigh on me quite as much when I feel the team is gearing up for a legitimate Super Bowl run. I don’t look at the coaching staff or the roster matrix right now and think the team needs to be parsing out every cent for an edge (an edge that results in a guy like Evans leaving). But I also understand that it’s not my job on the line. if it were, I would be more cutthroat.

If we’re looking at 9-8 heaven again, I’d rather do it with legends and take the hit on the margins of the roster and give up some quality depth if necessary.

And a lot of this assumes Mike Evans will not continue to be an impact player. Pretty sure he will be next year. What, 75% chance he will be the following year? I always felt his lack of super duper elite counting statistics - specifically yards and total catches - undersold his impact.

This offense will feel the loss of Evans’ gravity. Mike is a walking 1st down & we can’t say that about anyone else on this roster.

Additionally what seems to be overlooked in this thread, is that teams have to prepare for him. Not for nothing but that is not a minor thing. My hope is that once the free market makes her wishes known, he will grant us right of first refusal.

[Cheb]

I don't understand the fear in regards to the spectre of Evans' eventual decline. He was BY FAR our best offensive player last year, and he led the NFL in receiving touchdowns. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Evans carried our offense on his back. And yet there seems to be a large group of folks here who fear that Evans is suddenly going to miss a ton of games or fall apart physically apropos of nothing.

If/when Evans leaves this team this offseason, our offense is going to feel his loss more than ya think.

[Grahamburn]

I don't understand the fear in regards to the spectre of Evans' eventual decline. He was BY FAR our best offensive player last year, and he led the NFL in receiving touchdowns. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Evans carried our offense on his back. And yet there seems to be a large group of folks here who fear that Evans is suddenly going to miss a ton of games or fall apart physically apropos of nothing.

If/when Evans leaves this team this offseason, our offense is going to feel his loss more than ya think.

It's not really fear. Just reality. The fraternity of WRs who dominate after 31 is small. Not saying he won't do it next year or the year after. He could. But, is Mike asking for guaranteed $$ beyond those first couple seasons on this deal? Probably. So, you're definitely going to pay top dollar for a decline in production. I don't see how anyone could think otherwise.

Mike just had the 14th best season EVER for a WR at age 30. Click on some of these guys and see what they do once they reach the "cliff."

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-r ... n-a-season

Play around with that site a little bit. Outside of the immortal Jerry Rice it gets really thin once they hit 33 and a lot of them fall off quickly at 31.

[Terry Tate]

I disagree.

Lynch played 4 seasons in Denver and was a Pro Bowler all 4 of those years. Statistically, yes...his best years were when he played in Tampa. But he wasn't that far off during his 4 seasons with the Broncos.

Sapp also played very well for his 4 years in Oakland. Again, not quite as good as his years in Tampa, but not so far off as you think.

Sapp had one good year out of four in Oakland. Lynch making the Pro Bowl doesn't prove all that much. Neither of them were "bad" players after they left, but they weren't perennial All Pros anymore either.

That's the point.

Do you want to pay a guy for his past performance? That's the question we have to ask ourselves with Mike. His numbers WILL decline from his best years during this next contract. I don't know how anyone could dispute that. If we sign him we'll have to hope it isn't a steep decline the way Julio Jones was.

Sapp was badly misused in Oakland. They tried making a 5 tech out of him. They eventually moved him back to the three and he immediately put up 10 sacks.


Remember, context is king.


I'd love to keep Evans but it does depend on the numbers. He is by far our best homegrown offensive player. He was killing it last year and if we let him walk, there is no guarantee the guy we draft can carry his jock even though this is a deep WR class. The catch is what do we lose if we break the bank for him. Do we lose AWJ? What about Wirfs next year? We also have to pay Baker and maybe David. This is no easy decision, I don't envy Licht right now.

[Snake]

Baker needs to take a discount. It’s really what it comes down to.

He is one who gets elevated. He does not elevate.

It would behoove him to do that

[Grahamburn]

Baker needs to take a discount. It’s really what it comes down to.

He is one who gets elevated. He does not elevate.

It would behoove him to do that

This is the way.

[kaimaru]

I don't understand the fear in regards to the spectre of Evans' eventual decline. He was BY FAR our best offensive player last year, and he led the NFL in receiving touchdowns. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Evans carried our offense on his back. And yet there seems to be a large group of folks here who fear that Evans is suddenly going to miss a ton of games or fall apart physically apropos of nothing.

If/when Evans leaves this team this offseason, our offense is going to feel his loss more than ya think.

It's not really fear. Just reality. The fraternity of WRs who dominate after 31 is small. Not saying he won't do it next year or the year after. He could. But, is Mike asking for guaranteed $$ beyond those first couple seasons on this deal? Probably. So, you're definitely going to pay top dollar for a decline in production. I don't see how anyone could think otherwise.

Mike just had the 14th best season EVER for a WR at age 30. Click on some of these guys and see what they do once they reach the "cliff."

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-r ... n-a-season

Play around with that site a little bit. Outside of the immortal Jerry Rice it gets really thin once they hit 33 and a lot of them fall off quickly at 31.

As Ronde Barber has mentioned, science and how to take care of a players body has changed a lot over the years. In fact, Evans is on the TB12 method and learned it from Brady and Alex Guerrero. What makes you think he will fall off a cliff like those other. Also remember our own Joey Galloway played at a high level and only fell off a cliff in his age 37 season. As @Cheb said we have no reason to believe any of the fates everyone is claiming. He missed 2 games out of the last 4 seasons and one of his best statistical seasons this year. Do you really think he won't get 4 more 1000 seasons?

[Grahamburn]

It's not really fear. Just reality. The fraternity of WRs who dominate after 31 is small. Not saying he won't do it next year or the year after. He could. But, is Mike asking for guaranteed $$ beyond those first couple seasons on this deal? Probably. So, you're definitely going to pay top dollar for a decline in production. I don't see how anyone could think otherwise.

Mike just had the 14th best season EVER for a WR at age 30. Click on some of these guys and see what they do once they reach the "cliff."

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-r ... n-a-season

Play around with that site a little bit. Outside of the immortal Jerry Rice it gets really thin once they hit 33 and a lot of them fall off quickly at 31.

As Ronde Barber has mentioned, science and how to take care of a players body has changed a lot over the years. In fact, Evans is on the TB12 method and learned it from Brady and Alex Guerrero. What makes you think he will fall off a cliff like those other. Also remember our own Joey Galloway played at a high level and only fell off a cliff in his age 37 season. As @Cheb said we have no reason to believe any of the fates everyone is claiming. He missed 2 games out of the last 4 seasons and one of his best statistical seasons this year. Do you really think he won't get 4 more 1000 seasons?

What makes me think it? I don’t know? Everything I’ve posted all day.

Interesting you bring up recent science, but if you look at the players who actually have had great seasons beyond their 30s the majority of them all happened many years ago.

Evans will be 31 when he plays on this deal and it will be top 10 WR money. I want him back too, but I understand the hesitancy. That’s all I’m saying.

[kaimaru]

As Ronde Barber has mentioned, science and how to take care of a players body has changed a lot over the years. In fact, Evans is on the TB12 method and learned it from Brady and Alex Guerrero. What makes you think he will fall off a cliff like those other. Also remember our own Joey Galloway played at a high level and only fell off a cliff in his age 37 season. As @Cheb said we have no reason to believe any of the fates everyone is claiming. He missed 2 games out of the last 4 seasons and one of his best statistical seasons this year. Do you really think he won't get 4 more 1000 seasons?

What makes me think it? I don’t know? Everything I’ve posted all day.

Interesting you bring up recent science, but if you look at the players who actually have had great seasons beyond their 30s the majority of them all happened many years ago.

Evans will be 31 when he plays on this deal and it will be top 10 WR money. I want him back too, but I understand the hesitancy. That’s all I’m saying.

I've read the average retirement age is around 30-35 years old. They don't have to play into their late 30s anymore. Jerry Rice's first contract after his rookie, he got paid $1 million a year. Unless the player just has a passion for football, the lower 1ks can be attributed to simply attrition

[Snake]

A lot of it is sports science, a lot of it is straight up steroids, a lot of it is nutrition, but most of it is ultimately genetics.

[Grahamburn]

What makes me think it? I don’t know? Everything I’ve posted all day.

Interesting you bring up recent science, but if you look at the players who actually have had great seasons beyond their 30s the majority of them all happened many years ago.

Evans will be 31 when he plays on this deal and it will be top 10 WR money. I want him back too, but I understand the hesitancy. That’s all I’m saying.

I've read the average retirement age is around 30-35 years old. They don't have to play into their late 30s anymore. Jerry Rice's first contract after his rookie, he got paid $1 million a year. Unless the player just has a passion for football, the lower 1ks can be attributed to simply attrition

Right. Mike has made over $110M with the Bucs.

[Grahamburn]

I’ll stop arguing against him because ultimately I don’t want him to go anywhere. I would prefer to be “wrong” here.

[Doctor]

I don't understand the fear in regards to the spectre of Evans' eventual decline. He was BY FAR our best offensive player last year, and he led the NFL in receiving touchdowns. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that Evans carried our offense on his back. And yet there seems to be a large group of folks here who fear that Evans is suddenly going to miss a ton of games or fall apart physically apropos of nothing.

If/when Evans leaves this team this offseason, our offense is going to feel his loss more than ya think.

To be fair, I give them credit for honesty. The "30 year old cliff" isn't new. I remember people ready to sign Godwin big and move on from Evans two years ago.

But like then, and still now, I disagree with those people. I'm aware of the average and the metrics. But Evans as a player has always looked like a smart long strider whose game would age well.

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if next year with Liam is his best year yet. Even if say this is the back side of the peak, its a long slope before the drop off. I want Evans back because I think we're close and he's a big reason. But times change. Eras change. Maybe Liam does use Godwin in the feeder role. Palmer plays compliment along with the rest of the plucky bunch. Godwin himself is a $20M man on a contract year.

Either way, I think Evans has plenty left in the tank.

[Doctor]

With that said, you wanna talk about rookie QB savings, we land a stud WR again this draft and Palmer takes another step forward, that's two starting WRs on cheap rookie deals.

[CannonFire]

With that said, you wanna talk about rookie QB savings, we land a stud WR again this draft and Palmer takes another step forward, that's two starting WRs on cheap rookie deals.

From 2000 to 2019, there were 77 WR's taken in the first rd. Of those 77, 21 have 100 or more career receptions. I mean, if you're a first round pick and can't reach 100 career receptions, I call that a bust. The hit rate on that is about 27%. Note, some of those 21 are guys like Breshad Perriman, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (Chargers), Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett, Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd, Darrius Heyward-Bey, & Robert Meachem (there's more like this), I would consider them busts. So, out of those 12, let's split the difference and say 6 were busts, making the "hit rate", 15 out off 77. That's a 19.5% success rate.

Here's a link that says:
"Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round QB picks per year. So according to our assessment, only 0.7 of those go on to become home-run picks. Meanwhile, at least 1.3 per year prove to be clear misses". So, 0.7 out of 3, comes to a 23.3% success rate.

Looks like the odds suggest that we keep Evans and draft a QB, not the other way around.

[GreatTimes]

The free agent market will be a lot hotter for Evans than it will be for Mayfield.