Baker Mayfield: PAID

[Grahamburn]

Don't the Brady years count? What's NE's record without Tom Brady? What's the point of this exercise?

[CannonFire]

So I point out FACTS, that Jason Licht is 43-70 in 7 seasons without Brady... 9 wins being the teams' highest win total, and 5 of those 7 seasons are losing seasons,that he hired and fired 2 coaches in the first 5 seasons, and only has 1 playoff win. Also pointed out FACTS that show Baker Mayfield's metrics all have him rated in the bottom third of the league as a starter... and that equates to me have nothing good to say about the organization? LOL

I think it points to me being objective.

75-88 even with Brady.

Licht struck lightning in a bottle with a 43 year old Brady deciding to continue his career, not having much of a market, and still playing at an elite level. That will be his legacy as Bucs GM.

Pretty much. The thing is, the team he built was pretty good. There's a lot of good players here, but he swung an missed... multiple times over a short period of time, on the two main components of building a team. The head coach and the QB. He hired Lovie Smith. Only an idiot thought that was a good idea at the time. Now, he did inherit crappy QB's... but he responded with a #1 overall pick that was a bust. During that time frame he fired his first HC and hired a new guy... who got fired after 3 seasons.

Tom Brady fell into his lap and Brady brought in Gronk while Fournette and & Brown said... 'yeah, I'll come play cheap to play with Tom Brady'. Boom, Super Bowl. Gronk gone... Fournette gone... Brown gone... replaced with Cade Otton, Raschaad White, and Russell Gage, and we go 8-9.

He brings in Mayfield and we go 9-8... and it was hard and ugly to get there. We barely beat the worst team in football... twice!

Odds are, we're a sub .500 team this coming season because we were barely a plus .500 team past season, and our schedule is harder. If that happens, it'll be the 7th losing season he's had in 11 years. Let's also be honest. If that happens and we have a losing season again the following year... he's likely to be fired and a new GM will bring in a new coach and they'll draft a QB. My only hope is that IF we have a losing season this year and next year, that next year we're absolutely awful. I don't want to be 8-9.

[Bootz]

75-88 even with Brady.

Licht struck lightning in a bottle with a 43 year old Brady deciding to continue his career, not having much of a market, and still playing at an elite level. That will be his legacy as Bucs GM.

Pretty much. The thing is, the team he built was pretty good. There's a lot of good players here, but he swung an missed... multiple times over a short period of time, on the two main components of building a team. The head coach and the QB. He hired Lovie Smith. Only an idiot thought that was a good idea at the time. Now, he did inherit crappy QB's... but he responded with a #1 overall pick that was a bust. During that time frame he fired his first HC and hired a new guy... who got fired after 3 seasons.

Tom Brady fell into his lap and Brady brought in Gronk while Fournette and & Brown said... 'yeah, I'll come play cheap to play with Tom Brady'. Boom, Super Bowl. Gronk gone... Fournette gone... Brown gone... replaced with Cade Otton, Raschaad White, and Russell Gage, and we go 8-9.

He brings in Mayfield and we go 9-8... and it was hard and ugly to get there. We barely beat the worst team in football... twice!

Odds are, we're a sub .500 team this coming season because we were barely a plus .500 team past season, and our schedule is harder. If that happens, it'll be the 7th losing season he's had in 11 years. Let's also be honest. If that happens and we have a losing season again the following year... he's likely to be fired and a new GM will bring in a new coach and they'll draft a QB. My only hope is that IF we have a losing season this year and next year, that next year we're absolutely awful. I don't want to be 8-9.

Lovie Smith was hired January 1st 2014
Jason Licht was hired January 21st 2014.

Lovie was purposely hired 1st because he wanted input on who the GM would be and final say over roster decisions.

Licht did hired Koetter and every subsequent Bucs HC though.

[Doctor]

Bootz, don't bring facts to a cry fest.

Licht didn't draft Mahomes, he has to go!

[Selmon Rules]

@Buc2 I'm here for the decades of futility and despair

As a fan since ‘76, I can say the same. Lol

Went to see a preseason game before the first season

Lost to Miami and if I remember correctly, we kicked 5 or 6 field goals but never did score a TD

Preview of coming attractions indeed

[CannonFire]

Pretty much. The thing is, the team he built was pretty good. There's a lot of good players here, but he swung an missed... multiple times over a short period of time, on the two main components of building a team. The head coach and the QB. He hired Lovie Smith. Only an idiot thought that was a good idea at the time. Now, he did inherit crappy QB's... but he responded with a #1 overall pick that was a bust. During that time frame he fired his first HC and hired a new guy... who got fired after 3 seasons.

Tom Brady fell into his lap and Brady brought in Gronk while Fournette and & Brown said... 'yeah, I'll come play cheap to play with Tom Brady'. Boom, Super Bowl. Gronk gone... Fournette gone... Brown gone... replaced with Cade Otton, Raschaad White, and Russell Gage, and we go 8-9.

He brings in Mayfield and we go 9-8... and it was hard and ugly to get there. We barely beat the worst team in football... twice!

Odds are, we're a sub .500 team this coming season because we were barely a plus .500 team past season, and our schedule is harder. If that happens, it'll be the 7th losing season he's had in 11 years. Let's also be honest. If that happens and we have a losing season again the following year... he's likely to be fired and a new GM will bring in a new coach and they'll draft a QB. My only hope is that IF we have a losing season this year and next year, that next year we're absolutely awful. I don't want to be 8-9.

Lovie Smith was hired January 1st 2014
Jason Licht was hired January 21st 2014.

Lovie was purposely hired 1st because he wanted input on who the GM would be and final say over roster decisions.

Licht did hired Koetter and every subsequent Bucs HC though.

Thanks. My bad.

[CannonFire]

Bootz, don't bring facts to a cry fest.

Licht didn't draft Mahomes, he has to go!

LOL, I got 1 thing wrong and now you're claiming that my point was that he didn't draft Mahomes. Talk about a straw man. The lengths some of you will go to make someone better than what they are.

[Bootz]

Bootz, don't bring facts to a cry fest.

Licht didn't draft Mahomes, he has to go!

It wasn't a cry fest. I in fact agree with what @CannonFire is saying. He just got the Lovie situation wrong. But he is stating facts. Licht's tenure has been subpar most of the time.

4 straight playoff appearances can change that though.

[Doctor]

Except it hasn't been. We have multiple Hall of Famers on the roster.


The only point he's made that isn't hot garbage is that usually a GM/HC lives or dies by the QB they hitch their wagon too. Now, to be clear, this is an absolutely moronic practice, but the modern NFL is very impatient. And it has very little tolerance for not hitting on that top QB, even when all the options that year were bad or even if all the options that decade were pretty lousy. Whiffing on your QB is typically a death sentence.

The only time it's not is if you can quickly pivot to something that works.
Bruce Allen survived RG3 because he could pivot to Kirk Cousins.
John Lynch survived Trey Lance because he could pivot to Purdy.
Douglas has survived Zach Wilson because he could pivot to ARod.
Les Snead survived Jared Goff because he could pivot to Stafford.
And yes, Licht survived Winston because he could pivot to Brady.

Smart GMs hedge their bets and play it smart because "just pick the correct savior and draft him" is not a serious strategy.



The idea that Licht is somehow a bad GM because he... *checks notes*.... draft someone who threw 30 INTs... is just silly.

[IchabodCrane84]

Licht was a new GM when we hired him. He made mistakes, even admitted to it in Mike's PC. Lord knows his free agent classes sucked his first 4 or so years. He even traded for one. Second round draft picks for the most part has been a huge miss.

But he's gotten better as he's learned and has turned into a solid GM that I'm thankful for. He locks core guys up like Evans, LVD, Vea, Marpet, and hopefully Wirfs and Winfield who are who you build a franchise around.

I would think most would look at Licht's most recent years as that's who he is as a GM and not his first 4 or 5 years as he was still developing, but that's just me.

[Doctor]

When your fan PTSD has you stuck in the loser mentality you reach back as far back as you need to to justify your addiction to cleaning house and praying for a Peyton Manning.

Despite having won not one, but TWO, chips off building a good roster and then plugging in the journeyman. They want their Lisan al Gaib.

[Onthebrink]

When your fan PTSD has you stuck in the loser mentality you reach back as far back as you need to to justify your addiction to cleaning house and praying for a Peyton Manning.

Despite having won not one, but TWO, chips off building a good roster and then plugging in the journeyman. They want their Lisan al Gaib.

Tom Brady is a journeyman QB now. You do the same thing that you complain others of doing just in the opposite manner. Except you build way more strawmen.

[Doctor]

As in a QB who journeyed from one team to another... yes.

As a veteran who was disrespect and discarded by the majority of the league? Yes.

Its not an insult.

[CannonFire]

Except it hasn't been. We have multiple Hall of Famers on the roster.


The only point he's made that isn't hot garbage is that usually a GM/HC lives or dies by the QB they hitch their wagon too. Now, to be clear, this is an absolutely moronic practice, but the modern NFL is very impatient. And it has very little tolerance for not hitting on that top QB, even when all the options that year were bad or even if all the options that decade were pretty lousy. Whiffing on your QB is typically a death sentence.

The only time it's not is if you can quickly pivot to something that works.
Bruce Allen survived RG3 because he could pivot to Kirk Cousins.
John Lynch survived Trey Lance because he could pivot to Purdy.
Douglas has survived Zach Wilson because he could pivot to ARod.
Les Snead survived Jared Goff because he could pivot to Stafford.
And yes, Licht survived Winston because he could pivot to Brady.

Smart GMs hedge their bets and play it smart because "just pick the correct savior and draft him" is not a serious strategy.



The idea that Licht is somehow a bad GM because he... *checks notes*.... draft someone who threw 30 INTs... is just silly.

[Bootz]

Licht didn't use void years on Baker's contract. His cap # this season is $10.75mil. That jumps to $39.625mil next season though and $49mil in 2026.

I expect next offseason he'll either be extended or we'll save $10mil in cap space by releasing him.

[CannonFire]

Licht didn't use void years on Baker's contract. His cap # this season is $10.75mil. That jumps to $39.625mil next season though and $49mil in 2026.

I expect next offseason he'll either be extended or we'll save $10mil in cap space by releasing him.

Based on that, I think:

Plan A is to draft his replacement this year. If their guy is there at #26 and fear he won't make it back to them at #57, they may take him there. If not, they may use #57+a 3rd to move up into the top 40 to get him.... then release (or trade), Mayfield after this season.

Plan B is go into 2025 with Mayfield and release (or trade), him in the offseason and use their Top 10-15 pick on a new QB.

I don't think there's a Plan C.

[Doctor]

Not surprising.

When you're a hammer everything looks like a nail.

[Grahamburn]

Licht didn't use void years on Baker's contract. His cap # this season is $10.75mil. That jumps to $39.625mil next season though and $49mil in 2026.

I expect next offseason he'll either be extended or we'll save $10mil in cap space by releasing him.

Based on that, I think:

Plan A is to draft his replacement this year. If their guy is there at #26 and fear he won't make it back to them at #57, they may take him there. If not, they may use #57+a 3rd to move up into the top 40 to get him.... then release (or trade), Mayfield after this season.

Plan B is go into 2025 with Mayfield and release (or trade), him in the offseason and use their Top 10-15 pick on a new QB.

I don't think there's a Plan C.

Plan A is to win regular season games, win in the playoffs, and hopefully win a championship with Mayfield as he plays up to the contract he just received, and extend him after 2025. Your plans would be XYZ worst case scenarios.

They definitely will not be drafting a QB in the first round, and probably shouldn't until the 2025 draft if they don't fill some needs in free agency.

[CannonFire]

Based on that, I think:

Plan A is to draft his replacement this year. If their guy is there at #26 and fear he won't make it back to them at #57, they may take him there. If not, they may use #57+a 3rd to move up into the top 40 to get him.... then release (or trade), Mayfield after this season.

Plan B is go into 2025 with Mayfield and release (or trade), him in the offseason and use their Top 10-15 pick on a new QB.

I don't think there's a Plan C.

Plan A is to win regular season games, win in the playoffs, and hopefully win a championship with Mayfield as he plays up to the contract he just received, and extend him after 2025. Your plans would be XYZ worst case scenarios.

They definitely will not be drafting a QB in the first round, and probably shouldn't until the 2025 draft if they don't fill some needs in free agency.

LOL, no, what you're talking about is the long game... the one that EVERY team has. I'm talking about the short game. You can't look down the road without seeing what's in front of you. What's in front of YOU, is a Baker Mayfield contract that allows the Bucs to move on from him in 12 months. If there's a QB in this draft that Licht and Co like, and can be taken in round 2, there's a realistic chance they take him. If they like him that much, they may take him at #26.

[Grahamburn]

Plan A is to win regular season games, win in the playoffs, and hopefully win a championship with Mayfield as he plays up to the contract he just received, and extend him after 2025. Your plans would be XYZ worst case scenarios.

They definitely will not be drafting a QB in the first round, and probably shouldn't until the 2025 draft if they don't fill some needs in free agency.

LOL, no, what you're talking about is the long game... the one that EVERY team has. I'm talking about the short game. You can't look down the road without seeing what's in front of you. What's in front of YOU, is a Baker Mayfield contract that allows the Bucs to move on from him in 12 months. If there's a QB in this draft that Licht and Co like, and can be taken in round 2, there's a realistic chance they take him. If they like him that much, they may take him at #26.

It's a hedge. Not an expectation. If they expect him to fail to a point that they're moving on after 2024 you might as well not sign him at all. It's a nice contract for the Bucs if things don't go well, but they shouldn't be building the roster that way. They need to use these picks to fill out the roster. At least that's what I'd do. If they want to use the 3rd they just picked up on Rattler I'd be all for it though.

[Bootz]

LOL, no, what you're talking about is the long game... the one that EVERY team has. I'm talking about the short game. You can't look down the road without seeing what's in front of you. What's in front of YOU, is a Baker Mayfield contract that allows the Bucs to move on from him in 12 months. If there's a QB in this draft that Licht and Co like, and can be taken in round 2, there's a realistic chance they take him. If they like him that much, they may take him at #26.

It's a hedge. Not an expectation. If they expect him to fail to a point that they're moving on after 2024 you might as well not sign him at all. It's a nice contract for the Bucs if things don't go well, but they shouldn't be building the roster that way. They need to use these picks to fill out the roster. At least that's what I'd do. If they want to use the 3rd they just picked up on Rattler I'd be all for it though.

The way this deal is structured certainly would leave you to believe it's possible they could move on after this year. I said when terms were announced it sounds like a franchise tag with a manageable cap #.


That's exactly what it is. Baker gets $28mil+ up front, his base salary for 2024 is a little over $1mil and he has $10mil guaranteed for 2025. Let's say we want to move on. The only thing it'll cost us is the $10mil guaranteed for 2025 and we'd have $10mil in cap savings.

This is essentially a 1 year $40mil deal for Baker with $30mil coming this year, $10mil coming next.

[CannonFire]

LOL, no, what you're talking about is the long game... the one that EVERY team has. I'm talking about the short game. You can't look down the road without seeing what's in front of you. What's in front of YOU, is a Baker Mayfield contract that allows the Bucs to move on from him in 12 months. If there's a QB in this draft that Licht and Co like, and can be taken in round 2, there's a realistic chance they take him. If they like him that much, they may take him at #26.

It's a hedge. Not an expectation. If they expect him to fail to a point that they're moving on after 2024 you might as well not sign him at all. It's a nice contract for the Bucs if things don't go well, but they shouldn't be building the roster that way. They need to use these picks to fill out the roster. At least that's what I'd do. If they want to use the 3rd they just picked up on Rattler I'd be all for it though.

It's only hedge to people who think Baker is better than what he is. Mayfield is a stop-gap, nothing more, nothing less and the contract tells you that by being structured in a way where they can move on from him in 12 months.

People love to say that Mayfield had a career year. Fine, he had a career year with a top tier receiving Corp (one of the best WR duos in the NFL), a solid pass blocking O-Line, a solid RB, and a legit TE group... and managed to rank 20th in the league in scoring. That's a stop-gap QB dude.

[Bootz]

It's a hedge. Not an expectation. If they expect him to fail to a point that they're moving on after 2024 you might as well not sign him at all. It's a nice contract for the Bucs if things don't go well, but they shouldn't be building the roster that way. They need to use these picks to fill out the roster. At least that's what I'd do. If they want to use the 3rd they just picked up on Rattler I'd be all for it though.

It's only hedge to people who think Baker is better than what he is. Mayfield is a stop-gap, nothing more, nothing less and the contract tells you that by being structured in a way where they can move on from him in 12 months.

I don't see how anyone cam debate this. We gave a 28 year old QB a 3 year deal with most of the guarantees coming in year 1 and a very easy out for year 2.

[Grahamburn]

It's only hedge to people who think Baker is better than what he is. Mayfield is a stop-gap, nothing more, nothing less and the contract tells you that by being structured in a way where they can move on from him in 12 months.

I don't see how anyone cam debate this. We gave a 28 year old QB a 3 year deal with most of the guarantees coming in year 1 and a very easy out for year 2.

So you two know how he’ll perform next year and the year after? If he repeats or improves on 2023 he’s not a stop gap. He’ll be extended.

The deal leaves the Bucs options. That I’ll agree on. I don’t think moving on from Mayfield is the ideal scenario.

[Bootz]

I don't see how anyone cam debate this. We gave a 28 year old QB a 3 year deal with most of the guarantees coming in year 1 and a very easy out for year 2.

So you two know how he’ll perform next year and the year after? If he repeats or improves on 2023 he’s not a stop gap. He’ll be extended.

The deal leaves the Bucs options. That I’ll agree on. I don’t think moving on from Mayfield is the ideal scenario.

That's really all @CannonFire was saying. The Bucs want Baker to show them he deserves to be here long term. He gets a great payday in 2024. Perform well, the Bucs exercise what equates to a $10mil option next year and likely extends him for real. If not, he's released and we save $10mil on next year's cap. Simple as that.

[Four Verticals]

I don't see how anyone cam debate this. We gave a 28 year old QB a 3 year deal with most of the guarantees coming in year 1 and a very easy out for year 2.

So you two know how he’ll perform next year and the year after? If he repeats or improves on 2023 he’s not a stop gap. He’ll be extended.

The deal leaves the Bucs options. That I’ll agree on. I don’t think moving on from Mayfield is the ideal scenario.

I think you guys are saying essentially the same thing and just using different terms.

[Grahamburn]

So you two know how he’ll perform next year and the year after? If he repeats or improves on 2023 he’s not a stop gap. He’ll be extended.

The deal leaves the Bucs options. That I’ll agree on. I don’t think moving on from Mayfield is the ideal scenario.

I think you guys are saying essentially the same thing and just using different terms.

Yup. Just semantics and perspectives.

[Backside]

I thought a deal we could move on from quickly if needed was exactly what everyone wanted?

[Grahamburn]

I thought a deal we could move on from quickly if needed was exactly what everyone wanted?

It was! It's also somehow vindication that Mayfield isn't good.

[Bootz]

I thought a deal we could move on from quickly if needed was exactly what everyone wanted?

It was! It's also somehow vindication that Mayfield isn't good.

Both can be true.

[Snake]

The way the deal was structured definitely has implications. The team isn’t sure he can do it all again.

[Doctor]

LOL, no, what you're talking about is the long game... the one that EVERY team has. I'm talking about the short game. You can't look down the road without seeing what's in front of you. What's in front of YOU, is a Baker Mayfield contract that allows the Bucs to move on from him in 12 months. If there's a QB in this draft that Licht and Co like, and can be taken in round 2, there's a realistic chance they take him. If they like him that much, they may take him at #26.

It's a hedge. Not an expectation. If they expect him to fail to a point that they're moving on after 2024 you might as well not sign him at all. It's a nice contract for the Bucs if things don't go well, but they shouldn't be building the roster that way. They need to use these picks to fill out the roster. At least that's what I'd do. If they want to use the 3rd they just picked up on Rattler I'd be all for it though.

Bingo.

You nailed it, but it will fall of deaf ears. Savior zealots don't believe in hedges. They don't believe in doubt. They believe in only the messiah arriving and you rewarding him with a full faith contract. Anything less to them is proof that the QB is not the savior and thus trash and must be moved on from as soon as possible.
Of course all this is just silly nonsense.

Putting together the entire silly You Need An Elite QB Savior dogma aside (as one should), you never know if that Trent Dilfer, that Brad Johnson, that Drew Brees, that Kirk Cousins, that Favre (packers), that Favre (jets), that Peyton Manning, that Tom Brady, that Goff, that Stafford, or that Aaron Rodgers is actually going to result in a trophy or not.

Is the one and only thing that differentiates them being label a "stop gap" or not is whether they won a chip?

If so that means Trent, Brad, Staffy, and Favre 1 weren't stop gaps but actually the right answer after all?
And Kirk, Favre 2, Goff and Rodgers were just silly stop gaps?
Who would've guessed that?

I'll tell you who wouldn't have guessed, dogmatic zealots who would've labeled all these as worthless stop gaps. They cannot see anything else.

Now I don't know if Baker is another Brad Johnson or another Kirk Cousins. All I know is that it's definitely worth seeing through.
Bowles, Arians, Liam, and Licht all seem to be of like mind as well. And the contract is set up incredibly well to let us do exactly that. Without any of the risks other teams have taken, we are now set up to fully explore the Baker avenue at a really really good price for the next 3-5 years. And all from a position that offers us incredible flexibility if it turns out we do want to pivot. Of course the brilliance of this whole set up is lost on the cult.

[Doctor]

The way the deal was structured definitely has implications. The team isn’t sure he can do it all again.

Because if they were sure they totally would've given him a Kirk Cousins contract.... despite the market determining that isn't necessary.

So them not overpaying when they didn't have to is not a clear. and obvious savvy business... but in fact them sending him and the fanbase a coded message that they don't really-really believe in him. Wow. Okay.

[Grahamburn]

The way the deal was structured definitely has implications. The team isn’t sure he can do it all again.

Because if they were sure they totally would've given him a Kirk Cousins contract.... despite the market determining that isn't necessary.

So them not overpaying when they didn't have to is not a clear. and obvious savvy business... but in fact them sending him and the fanbase a coded message that they don't really-really believe in him. Wow. Okay.

It's a good deal for both sides, which is what we'd hoped for. Kirk's deal is a good one for him, and the Falcons drastically overpaid unless they win a championship. Especially when you consider what other mid-level veterans have gone for the last two off-seasons AND that Kirk is coming off an achilles tear at 36 years old.

[Snake]

The way the deal was structured definitely has implications. The team isn’t sure he can do it all again.

Because if they were sure they totally would've given him a Kirk Cousins contract.... despite the market determining that isn't necessary.

So them not overpaying when they didn't have to is not a clear. and obvious savvy business... but in fact them sending him and the fanbase a coded message that they don't really-really believe in him. Wow. Okay.

The market implied the same exact thing. You proved my point.