Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
The below picture shows the TEs under contract the next few years.
Some immediate takeaways:
1. They're cheap. Not unimportant. The team has to pay Evans, Wirfs, and AWJr. Oh, and Mayfield. Others to come.
2. Mixture of skillsets. Kieft is a pure blocker. Otton caught 47 balls and 4 TDs. 20th and 12th in NFL TE rankings, respectively.
3. None are dynamic, explosive game changers through the passing game.
Some stuff on Kieft:
Kieft played in 17 games in 2022, as a rookie. Started 12. He played 22% of offensive snaps, 60% of ST snaps.
Kieft played in 16 games in 2023, as a sophomore. Started 6. He played 20% of offensive snaps, 68% of ST snaps.
Kieft was targeted 3x in week 1 in 2023. 0 catches. He was only targeted two more times the rest of the season.
He was drafted as a passblocking specialist. They gave him a chance to do more. It didn't produce. So he will remain a #3 TE blocker. Otton and Durham are similar. Both very big bodies with sticky hands and a knack for feeling out zones. Both still have issues holding up in blocking phase.
I personally think TE is an area of potential improvement.
Some immediate takeaways:
1. They're cheap. Not unimportant. The team has to pay Evans, Wirfs, and AWJr. Oh, and Mayfield. Others to come.
2. Mixture of skillsets. Kieft is a pure blocker. Otton caught 47 balls and 4 TDs. 20th and 12th in NFL TE rankings, respectively.
3. None are dynamic, explosive game changers through the passing game.
Some stuff on Kieft:
Kieft played in 17 games in 2022, as a rookie. Started 12. He played 22% of offensive snaps, 60% of ST snaps.
Kieft played in 16 games in 2023, as a sophomore. Started 6. He played 20% of offensive snaps, 68% of ST snaps.
Kieft was targeted 3x in week 1 in 2023. 0 catches. He was only targeted two more times the rest of the season.
He was drafted as a passblocking specialist. They gave him a chance to do more. It didn't produce. So he will remain a #3 TE blocker. Otton and Durham are similar. Both very big bodies with sticky hands and a knack for feeling out zones. Both still have issues holding up in blocking phase.
I personally think TE is an area of potential improvement.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
If you could put Kieft and Durham in a blender, the result would be close to prototypical for the position.
Otton works the seams and curls well, but sucks nuts as a blocker.
IMO, Durham has the most upside of the bunch, and frankly, that’s concerning for the position group.
Otton works the seams and curls well, but sucks nuts as a blocker.
IMO, Durham has the most upside of the bunch, and frankly, that’s concerning for the position group.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Could tight end use improvement? Yes.
Is the reason we lost games and ultimately didn't win the Superbowl because of our tight ends? Nope.
I would hope we use our offseason resources elsewhere.
Is the reason we lost games and ultimately didn't win the Superbowl because of our tight ends? Nope.
I would hope we use our offseason resources elsewhere.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I mean if Brock Bowers were there when we pick, we'd be complete idiots not to explore that. But I don't expect that to happen since Bowers Is probably off the board by pick 15.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Spotrac.com shows these 7 free agents having a market value...Snake wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 4:39 pm Some immediate takeaways:
1. They're cheap. Not unimportant. The team has to pay Evans, Wirfs, and AWJr. Oh, and Mayfield. Others to come.
2. Mixture of skillsets. Kieft is a pure blocker. Otton caught 47 balls and 4 TDs. 20th and 12th in NFL TE rankings, respectively.
3. None are dynamic, explosive game changers through the passing game.
Some stuff on Kieft:
Kieft played in 17 games in 2022, as a rookie. Started 12. He played 22% of offensive snaps, 60% of ST snaps.
Kieft played in 16 games in 2023, as a sophomore. Started 6. He played 20% of offensive snaps, 68% of ST snaps.
Kieft was targeted 3x in week 1 in 2023. 0 catches. He was only targeted two more times the rest of the season.
He was drafted as a passblocking specialist. They gave him a chance to do more. It didn't produce. So he will remain a #3 TE blocker. Otton and Durham are similar. Both very big bodies with sticky hands and a knack for feeling out zones. Both still have issues holding up in blocking phase.
I personally think TE is an area of potential improvement.
Hunter Henry (1 yr/ $7.5M AAV) - 42/419/6
Dalton Schultz (3 yr/ $11.3M AAV) - 59/635/5
Gerald Everett (2 yr/ $8.6M AAV) - 51/411/3
Adam Trautman (3 yr/ $3.7M AAV) - 22/204/3
Pharaoh Brown (1 yr/ $2.6M AAV) - 13/208/1
Colby Parkinson (4 yr/ $6.6M AAV) - 25/247/2
Brock Wright (3 yr/ $4.5M AAV) - 13/91/1
As you noted, Otton had 47/455/4... in comparison, that puts him in the group of the top 3 AAV guys, basically saying that Otton's production is worth about $9M AAV on the open market. Our entire TE room is making less than $5M. I'm not really sure there's a reason nor ability to upgrade the position in free agency.
Schultz is clearly the top guy in this FA class. When you look at his usage over the last 4 seasons, his average 17-game season is 100 targets, 69 receptions, 711 yards, and 6 TD's. He's among the top 10 TE's in the league. Otton got 100 targets over his last 25 games. In those games he has 66 receptions for 600 yards and 5 TD's. That's not far off Dalton Schultz's numbers.
I'm ok with the group we have and I don't think we need to target one this offseason. I am however ok with Licht and Co, drafting a guy in the 5th or 6th round that could be a diamond in the rough.
Last edited by CannonFire on Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I've heard some say he could go in the top 5. But I agree, if he's sitting there at #26, I don't see how he isn't the BPA.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
He will be in play for the Chargers for sure, but what is the likelihood it will be 3 QBs, MHJ, and a TE in the top 5? I think Pitts will probably make people question using a top 5 on a TE. He's not the gamechanger people thought he would beCannonFire wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:24 pmI've heard some say he could go in the top 5. But I agree, if he's sitting there at #26, I don't see how he isn't the BPA.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Bowers > Pitts
But your point is noted.
But your point is noted.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Not saying he ends up the exact same. But I heard the same exact things about OJ Howard when he entered the draft and everyone was so shocked he was there at our pick and what a steal it was.CannonFire wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:24 pmI've heard some say he could go in the top 5. But I agree, if he's sitting there at #26, I don't see how he isn't the BPA.
Id prefer the pick go into the offensive line or secondary.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Bowers is infinitely better than Howard.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
OJ Howard was actually a very good tight end when he was playing. The problem is, he didn't ever play a full season for the Bucs until his final year.Miller4Prez64 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:18 amNot saying he ends up the exact same. But I heard the same exact things about OJ Howard when he entered the draft and everyone was so shocked he was there at our pick and what a steal it was.CannonFire wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:24 pm
I've heard some say he could go in the top 5. But I agree, if he's sitting there at #26, I don't see how he isn't the BPA.
Id prefer the pick go into the offensive line or secondary.
The best ability is availability, and Bowers already has injury concerns.
On a side note, with Ko's blocking ability, do you think it would be smart to have him play fullback on running plays?
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I called Brock Bowers a future Hall of Famer when he was a true freshman in Georgia. There’s no hindsight about it.
I called Jayden Daniels, who was a four-star, true freshman quarterback, at Arizona State, a future Heisman winner. Before he took his first snap as a true freshman and anyone knew who he was.
I know what I’m doing better than most NFL GMs. Because the fact is most of them are terrible.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
It's not just hindsight.
Howard didn't produce a ton in college. As a 4 year starter, he cracked 600 yards once and had 7 total TDs in 4 years.
His workout and his massive game against Clemson inflated him.
Brock Bowers is the better prospect.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
...and what a humble fellow you are as well!Snake wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:55 amI called Brock Bowers a future Hall of Famer when he was a true freshman in Georgia. There’s no hindsight about it.
I called Jayden Daniels, who was a four-star, true freshman quarterback, at Arizona State, a future Heisman winner. Before he took his first snap as a true freshman and anyone knew who he was.
I know what I’m doing better than most NFL GMs. Because the fact is most of them are terrible.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I don't want Bowers. I don't want to offer what we would think would be fair compensation and have the offer turned down.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Not sure on the QB's, I haven't really dove into the draft much and I don't really follow college football. That said, I've seen a few mocks have #1, 2, & 3 being Williams, Maye, and Daniels... with Harrison and Bowers going 4 & 5. The draft is still 2+ months away, so a ton can change.kaimaru wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:38 pmHe will be in play for the Chargers for sure, but what is the likelihood it will be 3 QBs, MHJ, and a TE in the top 5? I think Pitts will probably make people question using a top 5 on a TE. He's not the gamechanger people thought he would beCannonFire wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:24 pm
I've heard some say he could go in the top 5. But I agree, if he's sitting there at #26, I don't see how he isn't the BPA.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
And Pitts? Look, the point is when we say we know about a guy the truth is we really don't. Every year the next big thing comes out. He's better than this guy or that guy, and ultimately a lot of the hype fizzles out. All I'm saying is these things don't always materialize.uscbucsfan1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:01 pmIt's not just hindsight.
Howard didn't produce a ton in college. As a 4 year starter, he cracked 600 yards once and had 7 total TDs in 4 years.
His workout and his massive game against Clemson inflated him.
Brock Bowers is the better prospect.
Had Koetter stayed in Tampa and/or OJ not been constantly injured his career could have looked vastly different.
Bowers' career will be very dependent on where he's drafted, how he's used, and whether or not he can stay healthy.
I like him. I think he's a stud too and would be thrilled to have him, but these hot takes where he's better than every other highly touted TE ever are just hype. Because, those guys were highly touted too and a lot of them don't pan out.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
How a prospect is recruited is completely different than how they pan out.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:19 pm
I like him. I think he's a stud too and would be thrilled to have him, but these hot takes where he's better than every other highly touted TE ever are just hype. Because, those guys were highly touted too and a lot of them don't pan out.
Bowers is a better prospect than Howard. He's probably on par with Pitts...maybe slightly ahead. Bowers was the better overall player in college, but doesn't have some of the highlight/freak plays that Pitts did.
It's not a hot take. Darren McFadden was one of the best RB prospects ever. Him not panning out doesn't negate the college film, measurements, height/weight, etc. that made him such a great prospect.
Howard was a polarizing prospect, even here. Bootz and MJW didn't think he was worth a 1st and myself and RBF thought he would never fall to us.
It was the same in the media. Howard didn't produce much in college, but was an athletic freak and had 1 insane game in the Natty. Bowers is the opposite, he has incredible tape and stats and most think he'll measure as a freak as well.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I don't recall anyone calling Howard a top 5 pick (aside from Tampa homers after we made the pick). I remember most saying he was a middle of the back end type of pick... like the early 20's. I have no qualms with a interior OL guy or DB, but everything I've seen and heard so far says that Bowers is a lock for top 7 and I don't recall ever hearing Howard even regarded as a top 15 pick. At the time, I remember not being too happy because the word was (from everyone outside of Tampa), that we over drafted him.Miller4Prez64 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:18 amNot saying he ends up the exact same. But I heard the same exact things about OJ Howard when he entered the draft and everyone was so shocked he was there at our pick and what a steal it was.CannonFire wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 5:24 pm
I've heard some say he could go in the top 5. But I agree, if he's sitting there at #26, I don't see how he isn't the BPA.
Id prefer the pick go into the offensive line or secondary.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Receipts? Because anyone tracking high school and college players. Probably 10s of thousands of players is either a pro scout or talking BSSnake wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:55 amI called Brock Bowers a future Hall of Famer when he was a true freshman in Georgia. There’s no hindsight about it.
I called Jayden Daniels, who was a four-star, true freshman quarterback, at Arizona State, a future Heisman winner. Before he took his first snap as a true freshman and anyone knew who he was.
I know what I’m doing better than most NFL GMs. Because the fact is most of them are terrible.
Last edited by kaimaru on Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
There were quite a few talking heads calling him a top 10 pick. Daniel Jeremiah had him going 6th.CannonFire wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:46 pmI don't recall anyone calling Howard a top 5 pick (aside from Tampa homers after we made the pick). I remember most saying he was a middle of the back end type of pick... like the early 20's. I have no qualms with a interior OL guy or DB, but everything I've seen and heard so far says that Bowers is a lock for top 7 and I don't recall ever hearing Howard even regarded as a top 15 pick. At the time, I remember not being too happy because the word was (from everyone outside of Tampa), that we over drafted him.Miller4Prez64 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:18 am
Not saying he ends up the exact same. But I heard the same exact things about OJ Howard when he entered the draft and everyone was so shocked he was there at our pick and what a steal it was.
Id prefer the pick go into the offensive line or secondary.
Mike Mayock, Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay all had him in the top 12.
https://www.inquirer.com/philly/sports/ ... op_10.html
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
CannonFire wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:46 pmI don't recall anyone calling Howard a top 5 pick (aside from Tampa homers after we made the pick). I remember most saying he was a middle of the back end type of pick... like the early 20's. I have no qualms with a interior OL guy or DB, but everything I've seen and heard so far says that Bowers is a lock for top 7 and I don't recall ever hearing Howard even regarded as a top 15 pick. At the time, I remember not being too happy because the word was (from everyone outside of Tampa), that we over drafted him.Miller4Prez64 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:18 am
Not saying he ends up the exact same. But I heard the same exact things about OJ Howard when he entered the draft and everyone was so shocked he was there at our pick and what a steal it was.
Id prefer the pick go into the offensive line or secondary.
Of all the mock drafts I saw, OJ Howard's floor was #12. His ceiling was #6. While that is not a top 5 pick, no one said he was going in the 20s
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Beat me to ituscbucsfan1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:56 pmThere were quite a few talking heads calling him a top 10 pick. Daniel Jeremiah had him going 6th.CannonFire wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:46 pm
I don't recall anyone calling Howard a top 5 pick (aside from Tampa homers after we made the pick). I remember most saying he was a middle of the back end type of pick... like the early 20's. I have no qualms with a interior OL guy or DB, but everything I've seen and heard so far says that Bowers is a lock for top 7 and I don't recall ever hearing Howard even regarded as a top 15 pick. At the time, I remember not being too happy because the word was (from everyone outside of Tampa), that we over drafted him.
Mike Mayock, Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay all had him in the top 12.
https://www.inquirer.com/philly/sports/ ... op_10.html
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
He did call both of them early on. Draft forum.kaimaru wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:54 pmReceipts? Because anyone tracking high school and college players. Probably 10s of thousands of players is either a pro scout or talking BSSnake wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:55 am
I called Brock Bowers a future Hall of Famer when he was a true freshman in Georgia. There’s no hindsight about it.
I called Jayden Daniels, who was a four-star, true freshman quarterback, at Arizona State, a future Heisman winner. Before he took his first snap as a true freshman and anyone knew who he was.
I know what I’m doing better than most NFL GMs. Because the fact is most of them are terrible.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Before his first pass in college though?
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
uscbucsfan1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:56 pm There were quite a few talking heads calling him a top 10 pick. Daniel Jeremiah had him going 6th.
Mike Mayock, Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay all had him in the top 12.
https://www.inquirer.com/philly/sports/ ... op_10.html
Ok, as I've said in other places, college football is boring so I don't watch it. I rely on pundits. I probably read a couple blips about him and saw late first round and assumed that was the norm.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Most of us in the draft forum had some high school threads.
I had one on Clowney saying he'd eventually be a number 1 overall pick from his High School tape...I also had one on Jimmy Clausen from High School (wasn't correct about that one), and then an Alshon Jeffery thread from high school about Lane Kiffin telling him he'd pump gas for a living. I said Alshon would be a 1st rounder...but I was off by a round.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
A lot of those posts (if not all) were on buczone. Which does not exist anymore. I was able to grab a screenshot of one post about Daniels very early in his career. As a true freshman. That was posted here at some point.
I don’t claim to be right about every player all the time. i’m pretty bad at evaluating wide receivers, interior lineman, corners. There is a high degree of technique relevant to those positions and I lack the familiarity to evaluate those.
My general philosophy: Production is king. But, does the manner in which a guy produces actually translate to the NFL?
E.g.
- arm strength is an amplifier. we have a lot of data showing us that elite arm strength is not a requirement to be good at QB. It helps. But you need other things.
What did I see with Jayden Daniels that made it apparent to me? His extremely good pocket sense. The most athletic player on the field. And, to top it off, he had an elite deep ball. Both ball placement and trajectory.
Why did this equal Heisman potential? The threat of his legs constantly stresses the defense.his elite deep ball stretches the defense vertically. But, they can’t cheat too much on that, because he’ll kill them with his legs. And he was on time, on target enough in scripted stuff that the offense would stay on schedule and get easy yardage when permitted. Clocked these traits during the spring practices in Tempe, Arizona. Why was I following the team at that time? Because I was extremely interested in how the Herm Edwards experiment would go. Pure happenstance.
whether or not the above translates to the NFL is a totally different thing. I have been cooler on Daniels as a NFL prospect than a Heisman candidate. Why? Well what translates to the NFL? He was good enough in the short to intermediate in college. But I don’t think he was elite there. he was prone to being scattershot on easy stuff. But then he can make up for it on third and 12 by rushing for a first down. You can’t give away a handful of throws in the NFL. His type of mobility is different to me from Lamar Jackson. He is very fast in a straight line. He has a little stutterstep that he does to get guys to miss. But I don’t see the overall body flexion, wiggle, and ability to contort himself like Lamar Jackson. I’m prepared to be totally wrong on that. There’s a lot more stuff we could talk about about QBs. But the general theme is, if the game does not look like it’s moving slow for a quarterback, mentally, you’re probably going to have trouble. Because rhythm plays and scripted series only work in optimal conditions. And football is not optimal all the time.
Brock Bowers? I turned on the film and I watched him dominating in every facet of the game against elite competition. I watched him get the ball on a jet sweep and run past a defensive back. I watched him mogg some linebackers in the run game. I saw him split out wide, and set up in the seam, and run good routes. He also played with physicality once he got the ball. He played like a big receiver with a frame to put on more weight. That to me is a winning combination. After the game, I noticed that he was in the throes of male pattern baldness, despite being 19 years old. Which means he either has very naturally high levels of DHT - which has been proven to assist in muscle recruitment - or he’s on some good ass steroids. The NFL barely tests for anything, so either way this works for me. dominating at a young age is one of the telltale traits of a special talent. In other sports, outside of football, Hall of Famer’s tend to peak younger, but age slower. Think Alex Rodriguez, having his best season in his early 20s, and then hitting 650 HRs. Not gonna comment on longevity, it is an impact sport.
Thanks for coming to my TEDTalk.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
That settles it.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
TE is sneaky deep this year in the draft. I'd love to come away with one. May even cause Bowers to fall within trade range.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I think our TE's did what they were asked to do. They used them very cautionary I didnt see much attacking. They had Otton open up a little later in the season. Everything hinges on whether they think our o-line will buy Mayfield enough time.
High pick on a TE - heck no.
High pick on a TE - heck no.
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Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Doc flip floppin all off season on his 1st pick wishlist.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
C.Otton is trash
TE is one of our weakest positions.
TE is one of our weakest positions.