Welcome Baker Mayfield

[Grahamburn]

If you don't think Baker played well this year or elevated his teammates I don't know what to tell you, man. There's not much else I can say.

Hes played well. Put up great numbers. Elevated? Meh, I don't agree that he has. But he's done as well as you could expect.

He made his fair share of off platform plays this year. Scrambles/runs when plays broke down for big first downs. Completed plenty of throws outside of structure. He went 6-4 without Godwin who was his most trusted and targeted WR through the first 7 games. 3 of those losses were without both Godwin and Evans. Otton became a threat while they were out. McMillan took off after that. Shephard, Jarrett. Durham and Culp catching perfect passes. Practice squad receivers. These guys weren't making one handed grabs on 50/50 jump balls and saving him. They were catching perfectly timed well placed throws... To me, that's elevating teammates who weren't expected to be relied upon.

I don't know what your definition is though.

[Pirate Life]

If you don't think Baker played well this year or elevated his teammates I don't know what to tell you, man. There's not much else I can say.

Hes played well. Put up great numbers. Elevated? Meh, I don't agree that he has. But he's done as well as you could expect.

Scramble against the Saints in the last game of the regular season certainly seems to be an instance where he elevated his teammates through his play.

[Bootz]

Hes played well. Put up great numbers. Elevated? Meh, I don't agree that he has. But he's done as well as you could expect.

He made his fair share of off platform plays this year. Scrambles/runs when plays broke down for big first downs. Completed plenty of throws outside of structure. He went 6-4 without Godwin who was his most trusted and targeted WR through the first 7 games. 3 of those losses were without both Godwin and Evans. Otton became a threat while they were out. McMillan took off after that. Shephard, Jarrett. Durham and Culp catching perfect passes. Practice squad receivers. These guys weren't making one handed grabs on 50/50 jump balls and saving him. They were catching perfectly timed well placed throws... To me, that's elevating teammates who weren't expected to be relied upon.

I don't know what your definition is though.

[Kress]

You want him to give Wirfs piggy-back rides around One Buc, or what?

Okay, actually I do want that. But still. What's elevate, then?

[Grahamburn]

Ok. :shrug:

[Backside]

Ok. :shrug:

He has no interest in actually engaging in an argument. Something as vague an unquantifiable as ‘elevating teammates’ it’s his favorite thing because there is no way at all to measure it. Which is why he’ll just laugh at your explanation while not refuting it or making his own argument about why players weren’t elevated.

[Sooner06]

Lol, "his ceiling is low."

What is his ceiling, according to you? This season? 4,500yds, 71% completion%, 41 passing TDs, 107 PR? Basically, Drew Brees? Brees-level play isn't good enough now? And Baker posted those numbers in his 7th new offensive system, with three rooks playing critical roles around him, and without his 2nd-best receiver for much of the season. So, given more experience/health around him his ceiling could be even higher than this season, right?

Never mind that you don't seem to have any criteria for assessing these 'ceilings' you keep bringing up like they're part of the Ten Commandments or something. I would really like to see a link to your CEILING CALCULATOR.

Leading the league in turnovers = low ceiling. You left that out for a reason.

No, I didn't intentionally leave it out; I was talking about 'ceilings,' not nadirs.

So, your calculus for ceilings is just turnover numbers? Well, at least it's simple. No need to analyze anything anyway, right?

And this "Baker doesn't elevate his teammates" thing is straight BS. I would like to see some kind of chart or detailed film analysis that corroborates that, if you please.


And you still haven't told us exactly how you're calculating these QBs' 'ceilings.' Let's have that as well just so that's out in the open and we don't have to wonder how you're coming to these 'ceiling' conclusions.

[Doctor]

Ceiling appears to be the word of the off season.

[Babeinbucland]

Ceiling appears to be the word of the off season.

“I’ll take ‘what I used to stare at when with my ex’ for $500, Alex.”

[Central_Buc]

[YT][/YT]

[Grahamburn]

Ceiling appears to be the word of the off season.

“I’ll take ‘what I used to stare at when with my ex’ for $500, Alex.”

Imagine how he feels!

[Selmon Rules]

Any players "ceiling" is a subjective thing, it is whatever you want to think it is

[CannonFire]

If baker puts up same numbers next year and let’s say wins 1 playoff game. What kind of deal do you give him?

He has to get a new deal this year or his cap hit is going to hurt us for 3 more years. The best thing to do is give him a 2 year extension to reduce his cap hit this year and next and include the voidable years money that are to come in '27 & '28. It has to be a deal where if we move on from him after 2026, we're not killed on dead money.

[Babeinbucland]

“I’ll take ‘what I used to stare at when with my ex’ for $500, Alex.”

Imagine how he feels!

Yeah, no. He was damn lucky I showed up at all. And didn’t stab him to death before I left him.

[Pirate Life]

Interesting.

[Bootz]

Interesting.

What is epa

[Doctor]

The formula for Expected Points Added (EPA) can get a bit complex, but I'll break it down the fundamental part for you:

EPA = (Expected Points After Play) - (Expected Points Before Play)

Where:

- Expected Points After Play = The average points scored by a team from the resulting field position and down-distance situation after the play.
- Expected Points Before Play = The average points scored by a team from the initial field position and down-distance situation before the play.

The EPA formula uses a combination of data, including:

1. Down (1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th)
2. Distance (yards to gain for a first down)
3. Field position (yard line)
4. Score difference (point margin between the teams)
5. Time remaining in the game

As you may have noticed "average" plays a big role so the formula is typically calculated using a large dataset of NFL plays, which provides the average points scored from each possible down-distance-field position combination. This dataset is used to estimate the expected points before and after each play.

The EPA formula can be represented mathematically as:

EPA = Σ (P(x) * (EP_after - EP_before))

Where:

- P(x) is the probability of each possible outcome (e.g., touchdown, field goal, turnover)
- EP_after is the expected points after the play
- EP_before is the expected points before the play
- Σ represents the sum of the products of P(x) and (EP_after - EP_before) over all possible outcomes

Keep in mind that the actual EPA formula used by NFL analysts and data providers come in shades grey, some more complex and nuanced, incorporating additional factors like team strengths, opponent weaknesses, and game situation.

Think the spaghetti models you see in hurricane tracking. Different but general telling a similar story.

[Bootz]

That formula can't possibly be useful. Where are the figures? I suppose the expected part would be 0,3,6,7, or 8 right? But who makes that determination and at what juncture does it change?

[Zarni]

That formula can't possibly be useful. Where are the figures? I suppose the expected part would be 0,3,6,7, or 8 right? But who makes that determination and at what juncture does it change?

The expected wont be an integer. It is the long run average of a situation.

For example, if a team has 1st and 10 at midfield, the expected part is a historical average of all the drives that had a 1st and 10 at midfield. It will likely be the average of thousands or tens of thousands of historical drives

[Doctor]

As the saying goes, all models are wrong.... but some are useful.


I suppose its no more or less useful than PPG. It's just an attempt to put numbers to what your eyes are seeing on the field. But the game will always be too human to quantify.

[Pirate Life]

This is the chart that shows EPA based on what down and field position.



EPA also takes into account yards to get the first down, don't have a handy chart at my fingertips for that. Doctor's explanation is a bit off, EPA looks at three things: what down is it, how many yards to get a first down, and how far to the endzone. Worst possible play would be a turnover for a TD on your own 1 yard line (a -14) while the best would be a 99 yard TD (10). Some folks do use additional data to refine the statistic further like Doctor mentions, but that's pretty site specific in general. EPA as used by teams and the NFL doesn't factor in time, opposition or anything else.

Stat has its roots in the early 1970s, a Bengals QB and a professor at Northwestern did a research paper on it, can find it here if you are interested: https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/ ... e.19.2.541

Mostly I found the 3rd and 7 thing interesting as the list of QBs at the top aren't the ones we often think of as 'clutch'. And some QBs are in 3rd and 7 waaay more than others. For their successes over the years, surprised to see Mahomes that high in number of 3rd and 7s for instance.

[Grahamburn]

Baker Mayfield is now the all-time career leader in playoff passer rating (min 5 games):

Baker Mayfield - 105.9
Patrick Mahomes - 105.8
Bart Starr - 104.8
Kurt Warner - 102.8
Josh Allen - 102.3

[Primeminister]

Baker Mayfield is now the all-time career leader in playoff passer rating (min 5 games):

Baker Mayfield - 105.9
Patrick Mahomes - 105.8
Bart Starr - 104.8
Kurt Warner - 102.8
Josh Allen - 102.3

That is positively insane

[Grahamburn]

Let’s get a defense here ASAP. We’ve got QB figured out.

[Bootz]

Let’s get a defense here ASAP. We’ve got QB figured out.

I still think we can do better on offense. IOL, TE, WR of course. We're by no means a finished product offensively.

[mdb1958]

Let’s get a defense here ASAP. We’ve got QB figured out.

I still think we can do better on offense. IOL, TE, WR of course. We're by no means a finished product offensively.

I hope other teams go for those three positions

[mdb1958]

For three rounds.

[Central_Buc]

For three rounds.

I heard/read LB is weak in this draft so I think maybe we have to go CB. It be nice to go CB for the first 2 rounds (potentially planting 2 starters on each side) but if there is a DE as BPA, we go that route.

LB in Free agency

[Bootz]

For three rounds.

I heard/read LB is weak in this draft so I think maybe we have to go CB. It be nice to go CB for the first 2 rounds (potentially planting 2 starters on each side) but if there is a DE as BPA, we go that route.

LB in Free agency

I take that with less than a grain of salt.

Anytime draftniks say a draft is weak at a position it means they don't see any obvious, surefire prospect or prospects. In fairness to them, they don't usually have a trained eye for scouting talent and identifying good players.

[Grahamburn]

Let’s get a defense here ASAP. We’ve got QB figured out.

I still think we can do better on offense. IOL, TE, WR of course. We're by no means a finished product offensively.

I opined in the draft forum that leaning into iOL and building a true dominator line would be an interesting approach.

TE. Otton into year 4. Do you pay him? Seemed like a sneaky good TE room though. Not a ton of production there but it’s not a Coen feature.

WR is. We disagree on Godwin. I’d sign him. I’d also still draft an outside player very early.

All kinds of ways to build these things.

[Bootz]

I still think we can do better on offense. IOL, TE, WR of course. We're by no means a finished product offensively.

I opined in the draft forum that leaning into iOL and building a true dominator line would be an interesting approach.

TE. Otton into year 4. Do you pay him? Seemed like a sneaky good TE room though. Not a ton of production there but it’s not a Coen feature.

WR is. We disagree on Godwin. I’d sign him. I’d also still draft an outside player very early.

All kinds of ways to build these things.

IOL:
I think if we want Barton to take that next step, putting a veteran presence next to him would really help. I like the idea of us using FA to fill that spot. Hate the execution. Signing these JAGS and plugging them in hasn't work 3 years running now. Bredeson wasn't good enough just as Fieler wasn't and Leverette/Stinnie/Mason before him weren't.

I'd look at guys like Patrick Mekari from Baltimore or Aaron Banks from San Francisco. They'll cost some money, but if it means better overall productivity from that spot to aid in the growth of the line I'm for it.

TE:
I think it would help the offense to improve here, but I agree that it doesn't seem to be a huge priority for Coen's offense. So Otton probably plays out his 4 year deal and we move on. Heck no, I'm not extending a guy that doesn't even average 10 yards a catch and is a subpar blocker. You can find guys like that on day 3.

WR:

Godwin or not, we'll need to re-up this spot sooner rather than later. Evans isn't getting any younger. Neither is Godwin. McMillan came on nicely but other than that, we don't have much else. I'd use a combination of the draft and FA to fill the WR room and let the best 5 guys earn their spots.

[Patrick McIrish]

If your take after watching the Bucs all year is "Baker has to get better"......

Might be time to petition the sewing circle for a 2nd membership.

Or maybe Book of the Week club. Hope it's "The NFL for Dummies".

I wasn't big on him coming but he's won me over on every level. Dude can play football for me any time.

We move on.

[Bootz]

If your take after watching the Bucs all year is "Baker has to get better"......

Might be time to petition the sewing circle for a 2nd membership.

Or maybe Book of the Week club. Hope it's "The NFL for Dummies".

I wasn't big on him coming but he's won me over on every level. Dude can play football for me any time.

We move on.

Anytime your QB is top of the list at turning the ball over, there's room for improvement. To suggest otherwise is idiotic.

Now we move on.

[Doctor]

[Sooner06]

NFL QBs vs. blitz/no blitz 2024:
https://nfllines.com/nfl-2024-qb-vs-bli ... tz-splits/



NFL QB Advanced metrics 2025:
This chart is interactive. You can click on headers and the page will reorganize the QBs either highest values to lowest, or vice versa.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php