2024 vs 2025 Opening Offensive Drives

[Nobody]

Alright, we're a quarter into the season so I figured I'd take a look at how we're starting games offensively this year vs last year though those four games. What I'm going to be looking at:

* Opening 2 x drives.

* Average Starting Position.

* % Drives Led to Score.

* Points Per Drive.

* Play Success Rate on Each Down. The typical way this is evaluated is a 1st/2nd down play gains at least half the yards required to net a first down or yields a first down or a touchdown or a 3rd/4th down play nets a first down or touchdown. I will have two caveat to this. The first is because it is my opinion that a four yard play on 1st down = a successful play (whereas this formula requires a five yard play in that situation). 2nd and 6 = a winning situation. So I'm creating a carveout for 1st and 10 of 4 or more yards. The second carveout is when a 3rd down call nets at least half the yards required for a first down, and the gain combined with the field position context yields an attempt to convert on 4th down. Everything else is as normal. EDIT - I've just realized a third carveout; a 3rd and long play which begins in very long FG range or beyond and nets an intermediate FG attempt. Such a play is successful (whether the FG hits or misses).

Alright.

I'll look into the particulars of offensive concepts later, but I just want to nail down the above baselines first.

[Snake]

I’m a simple man.

When I see @Nobody, I upvote.

[Nobody]

NOTE: Pre-Bucky workload, Skule in for Goedeke game 2 - game 4.

2024 OFFENSE

vs Commanders

Average Starting Position: TB34

% Drives Led to Score: 100 %

Points Per Drive: 3.0

1st Down Success Rate: 67 % (4/6)

2nd Down Success Rate: 25 % (1/4)

3rd Down Success Rate: 50 % (2/4)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

at Lions

Average Starting Position: TB43

% Drives Led to Score: 100 %

Points Per Drive: 3.0

1st Down Success Rate: 25 % (1/4)

2nd Down Success Rate: 50 % (2/4)

3rd Down Success Rate: 50 % (1/2)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

vs Broncos

Average Starting Position: TB19

% Drives Led to Score: 0 %

Points Per Drive: 0.0

1st Down Success Rate: 67 % (2/3)

2nd Down Success Rate: 33 % (1/3)

3rd Down Success Rate: 0 % (0/2)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

vs Eagles

Average Starting Position: TB20.5

% Drives Led to Score: 100 %

Points Per Drive: 7.0

1st Down Success Rate: 75 % (6/8)

2nd Down Success Rate: 83.3 % (5/6)

3rd Down Success Rate: 100 % (2/2)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

2024 Totals

Average Starting Position: ~TB29

% Drives Led to Score: 75 %

Points Per Drive: 3.25

1st Down Success Rate: 61.9 % (13/21)

2nd Down Success Rate: 52.9 % (9/17)

3rd Down Success Rate: 50 % (5/10)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

--------------------------

Analysis:

Across an entire season in terms of drives, league leader PPD is typically around ~ 2.7 PPD with the '19 Chiefs peaking at 3.12. So 3.25 is quite good though it will be inflated against season long totals due to a number of factors. What really stands out is the crazy play success rate across downs. We were stacking wins snap-in, snap-out on early offense like crazy, only failing to score due to a turnover and a few 3rd down misfires that didn't yield 4th down conversion attempts. Winning snaps at that rate absolutely has a "tilt the ice" feel both as a spectator and definitely as a participant. Whether you like it or not, you're aware that you're stacking lost snaps on defense and there are implications on collective belief in key situations later on. Same goes for the offense when you're winning at that rate.

[Nobody]

NOTE: OL and WR injuries galore. Just a deluge at those spots.

2025 OFFENSE

at Falcons

Average Starting Position: TB14.5

% Drives Led to Score: 0 %

Points Per Drive: 0.0

1st Down Success Rate: 0 % (0/2)

2nd Down Success Rate: 0 % (0/2)

3rd Down Success Rate: 0 % (0/2)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

at Texans

Average Starting Position: TB29

% Drives Led to Score: 100 %

Points Per Drive: 7.0

1st Down Success Rate: 50 % (2/4)

2nd Down Success Rate: 77.8 % (7/9)

3rd Down Success Rate: 100 % (4/4)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

vs Jets

Average Starting Position: TB27.5

% Drives Led to Score: 100 %

Points Per Drive: 5.0

1st Down Success Rate: 75 % (6/8)

2nd Down Success Rate: 40 % (2/5)

3rd Down Success Rate: 67.7 % (2/3)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

vs Eagles

Average Starting Position: TB22.5

% Drives Led to Score: 0 %

Points Per Drive: 0.0

1st Down Success Rate: 67.7 % (2/3)

2nd Down Success Rate: 67.7 % (2/3)

3rd Down Success Rate: 0 % (0/2)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

2024 Totals

Average Starting Position: ~TB23

% Drives Led to Score: 50 %

Points Per Drive: 3.0

1st Down Success Rate: 58.8 % (10/17)

2nd Down Success Rate: 57.9 % (11/19)

3rd Down Success Rate: 54.6 % (6/11)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

--------------------------

Analysis:

Interestingly, the gross values are not terribly different from one another. However, it should be abundantly clear where the differences are. Whereas 2024 saw only 1/4 game struggle in early offensive drives, we've sandwiched two absolute clunkers around two prolific outings. That singular outing difference might just be sample size issues rearing its head...but it is felt for sure. Decreasing your successful drive rate by half is a big deal and it certainly feels like it in terms of orientation to the sense of the offense's early success. The other piece (more on that later) is that this year's offense absolutely feels like "nothing comes easy" in contrast to last year's where we saw a host of layups executed trivially for successful snaps and follow-on favorable situation.

Two other interesting pieces are (a) you can definitely feel the Average Starting Drive Position disparity due to the new rules and (b) it is interesting that we have no 4th downs attempted in any of the 8 opening drives last year as well as the 8 opening drives this year.

[Nobody]

I'm going to look at the 4 opening drives against the Falcons and the Eagles this year where we went 3 plays up, 3 plays lost each. See what is happening at the opening script level. How much of our failures are deviations from last year's approach vs failures in execution. Drive 1 against the Falcons:

(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right.
Quarter 1st 13:14
Down 1st & 10
Yard Line TB 40

They're in Cover 3, but they disguise it fairly well.

We're in a reduced formation from 12 personnel here and we have a TE motioning into the formation late and fake a Counter back the other way where we pull Mauch to block the backside. The condensed receiver set here is intended to force their defense into a tight area, opening up the routes having enhanced leverage to attack the boundaries. We run a boot the other way off the play-action with a Cover 2 Beater (Corner over Arrow) and a Slant > Dig from the other side.

We actually pass block fairly well here, but they cover up the primary progression here really well. Cover 3 does well against this primary concept. However, look at how the layered routes and Flood of the right side gets the flow to bust against Bucky. The Flat defender Bucky's side has completely abandoned their responsibility after the run fit responsibility read and then the flow the other way. If Baker gets through his progressions (he needed to quickly realize that they've rolled to Cover 3 and the 2 Zone beater of Corner over Arrow is foiled) quickly and gets the ball to Bucky?

Oh boy. Massive play to start off the season. They're chasing Bucky down somewhere well into their territory.

So we have a mixed bag here.

Their called defense foils the primary read of this play. However, the reduced formation and the composite of the action works to generate this exact bust on the checkdown the other way. And the Flat defender does indeed bust. We just didn't get off the foiled concept quickly enough and get the ball to the checkdown on the backside of the boot.

[Nobody]

(Shotgun) B.Irving right guard to TB 42 for 2 yards (Z.Harrison; A.Ebiketie).
Quarter 1st 13:09
Down 2nd & 10
Yard Line TB 40

This looks like a missed up line call or something here. Or a miscommunication. We run White into the formation from Trips and then Orbit motion him back the way he came. Good so far. We actually get a 6 vs 6 in the box from this. If we run a Power O and pull the RG to the left side behind that Orbit and what has been vacated in the new alignment, we should have significant playside advantage. Even if we run Inside Zone and let Bucky decide to press playside or cut backside to that C/LG crease, we should have an advantage even if Bredeson/Mauch can't get 2nd level after their double of the NT.

But we do something kind of weird. We run Duo (Barton blocks the Edge 1v1 backside while Bredeson works backside to double the 3T w/ Jordan) but it is kind of fubar because of the NT's playside alignment in the 1 gap. This causes Mauch to bucket step wildly to cross the NT's face and seal him that way. He actually does a good job given that assignment. However, any playside press by Bucky is going to be rerouted because of course the NT is going to get penetration there and reset the LoS. Further, we don't have numbers that way, especially with the Center working backside. With the Center working backside, we actually turn a 4v4 into a 3v4; numerical disadvantage!

So this just looks like a mess. There has to be a line call messup or a missed run check or something. Inside Zone instead of Duo here (given the NT's alignment) is the right call...but why wouldn't we run check to Power O to the weak side where the Orbit action just caused havoc numerically and run fit wise? Bredeson blocks down on the NT, Mauch pulls. That should net an easy 5, even with Jordan generating less than a stalemate on his assignment.

Anyway. Just a weird collection of stuff here in terms of what the presnap action was intending to generate for the defensive front, the NT's alignment, and the subsequent call.

[Nobody]

(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to S.Shepard.
Quarter 1st 12:25
Down 3rd & 8
Yard Line TB 42

We show Empty Spread w/ Wide Bunch on the left and then motion Bucky into the backfield. This gives a pretty good indicator that they're in Zone. They are in fact playing 2 Zone but bringing the blitz w/ the ILB coming, an Edge dropping, and 33 looks to be on a Green Dog (they tentatively probe the LoS and then attack once Bucky stays in to pick up the ILB).

We actually have a good concept to attack this at the bottom of the screen, but their blitz beats our protection call. This is a tough ask for Bucky to come across to the A gap and beat that ILB to the spot and win or stalemate. He gives Baker the briefest of time here to attempt the Corner, but not enough. Only the best RB pass protectors in the league make this block here.

Noble attempt by Baker. Right read and good throw out of danger and to a good spot that gives his guy a very outside chance of making a play on the ball.

But, given all, this is more of a playcall win for the Falcons than an execution failure for us here.

[Nobody]

at Seahawks

Average Starting Position: TB27

% Drives Led to Score: 100 %

Points Per Drive: 3.0

1st Down Success Rate: 33 % (3/9)

2nd Down Success Rate: 57.1 % (4/7)

3rd Down Success Rate: 50 % (2/4)

4th Down Success Rate: NA

---------------

Rough on 1st down yesterday on the initial pair of drives. Among those 6 play losses on 1st down were 2 x negative plays as well; -1 yard run and -4 yard Screen.

On drive 2, we had a conversion via Roughing the Passer on 2nd and 8 that would have been 3rd and 8 after an incompletion.

[Grahamburn]

Felt like the creativity (especially in the running game) was ticked up a notch yesterday and there were several more of those "easy throws" you've referenced. AND getting Otton involved.

[Nobody]

No GIFs for the Eagles. I don't have time.

Here is the NFL+ Dashboard for the drive:

Play 1: This is one of those from last year that is one from the Sean Payton Quick Game playbook. We're in 11 personnel vs their Cover 3. From Doubles, we motion Tez hard into the formation under Godwin and he reverses and runs a little Speedarrow under Godwin at the snap. Trivial pitch-and-catch and run for 8 yards.

These are the sorts of plays we saw in abundance last year and I'd like to see more.

Play 2: This looks like the run game from last year and I'd, again, like to see more of this. We're in 12 personnel and start out Unbalanced Right. We motion Otton hard across the formation right before the snap. We run a little Counter play where Otton kicks out the Edge, we have Wirfs 1v1 (win) at the point of attack, we block down everywhere else and pull the other TE (Durham) and net a 12 yard gain with Bucky breaking a tackle after about 5 yards.

Play 3: We're in 11 personnel and we motion Otton across the formation for an indicator into Trips Right. They show Press and they're in 1 Man Free w/ the Free defender playing Low/Mid-Hole. I love this play. This is definitely out of last year's playbook. On the Quad side (with the RB over there), we run a little Spacing concept that features (a) exchanged releases, (b) a Swing (RB) and a Flare (TE) for a little bit of a Screen look, (c) a Hitch inside and over top of that for leverage/space, and (d) Godwin running an Over route.

Godwin wins. The ball could have gone to Shephard's Hitch (the Swing/Flare combo opened up a window), but Baker prioritized the Single on the left and then the pan to Godwin's Over route (the natural progression from left to right). Single doesn't win so he gets on Godwin. It is a hair high, but it has to be (correct ball placement) to get over the LB playing Hole. Ball is on Godwin. Should have been a conversion. Drop.

Play 4: We have a Wide Bunch left and formation them into a light box; their 6 vs our 5. However, we've got a gang of uncovered OL (LT, LG, C) due to their front and we're running Zone Read Option w/ Baker and Bucky where Baker's man becomes the Right Edge. Edge stays with Baker, so he correctly reads the handoff to Bucky. LT and C easy climb, RE is out of the play so it is 1v1 everywhere.

Easy 5 yards.

Play 5: We're in 11 again w/ another Wide Bunch featuring the TE, this time on the right side. No motion. They're in either Quarters or split coverage with Quarters on the Trips and 2 Read over EE (who is the single). Play happens quickly so the lack of development makes it impossible to distinguish between the two coverages.

They run a game up front with the Tackles and we don't pick it up. Baker has a Tackle running downhill into his lap so what looks to be a backshoulder to an EE Fade-Stop past the sticks is rushed. Bad ball placement because of that (well inside) and EE just has to fight it off to the ground to prevent something screwy happening.

Play win for them. Tight coverage across and the Tackle Twist wins decisively.

-----------------------

4/5 schemed play wins with a really fantastic sequence here. This is some of Grizzard's best work. Shame for it to end in a stupid Punt > Block > Return for TD.

[Doctor]

Great work nobody! Overall sounds like I'm reading very run of the mill growing pains of a blossoming good offense.

[Nobody]

Alright, Eagles at Bucs Drive # 2 for us:

(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to C.Godwin pushed ob at TB 32 for 7 yards (R.Blankenship).
Quarter 1st 12:47
Down 1st & 10
Yard Line TB 25

This is another one of those schemed, Payton-Quick Game layups via leverage/motion/rub that you love to see on all three of (a) the first play of a drive, (b) 1st down, and (c) as an answer to a momentum-tilting play (Punt Block > Scoop & Score).

We motion Godwin from 3 x 1 to 2 x 2 and it is a simple Arrow under Hitch that outleverages their roll (and possibly check) to Cover 3. Given the off coverage and deep 1/3 responsibility by the boundary CB, you've got a 2 vs 2 with the Flat and Seam/Hook defenders who are seriously outleveraged due to the dynamics of the concept. Easy read, easy completion, easy 7 yards for 2nd and 3.

[Nobody]

(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to E.Egbuka (Q.Mitchell).
Quarter 1st 12:10
Down 2nd & 3
Yard Line TB 32

I love everything about this playcall. The speed motion across the formation at the snap does several things (Man-indicator, leverage-challenger, sets multiple things up later, the Wheel route and the follow from the RB into a would-be vacant space if it is Zone). Look at the spacing generated by the concept; it seriously challenges several coverages including 3 Zone on the motion side, 2 Zone broadly, and has several answers for Man.

They play 1 Man Free with the ILB playing Hole. We get EE 1 v 1 and the route can clear the Low Hole Zone defender. Great call. Great execution on our end by everyone involved.

The CB just plays this fantastically in a situation where he is set up to have a problem. This is just high level football on both sides of the ball and an NFL CB making a big boy, All Pro play.

Oh well. Tip your hat. On to 3rd and 3.

[Nobody]

(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to E.Egbuka to TB 33 for 1 yard (Q.Mitchell).
Quarter 1st 12:05
Down 3rd & 3
Yard Line TB 32

Mistake by Baker here. This is a very winning playcall for this situation and, in particular, for our call/formation vs theirs. Baker decides he likes EE singled up vs Mitchel on a Whip route against Press coverage. On the other side of the (motioned to) 4 x 1, you've got enormous leverage issues for them even if they don't blitz from that side and create even more of a problem vs that quad concept (which they do blitz). We've got an exchanged release Wheel/Post to force the boundary defender and the Seam/Flat defenders to declare depth first and then we've got an interior Hitch to help with spacing and White's Arrow underneath outflanking defenders to the boundary. All told, if you put the Hitch vs the Hole as 1v1, this is basically a 3 (us) vs 2 (them) where the Flat and Deep 1/3 defender are supposed to cover the vertical and horizontal problem of a Wheel and Post over an Arrow. No way, no how. The Arrow is going to be trivially open in enormous space (and it is).

Just Baker getting a little overconfident in EE vs a burgeoning All Pro Press Man CB.

Take the layup here (even if they don't blitz and have 3 vs 3, it is going to be an enormous problem for them to cover and the Arrow is likely still a layup).

So...Punt.

--------------

Net, Grizzard's opening script vs the Eagles was very, very good. Eagles had some wins via great defenders playing great and we had some errors on our own execution that led to play-losses snatched from would-be play-wins.

[Grahamburn]

Nice to know the tape shows significant positive progression with Grizzard. The Seattle tape should prove to be even more optimistic. Thanks for doing these as always.

[Nobody]

Alright, first two drives at Seattle. 21 plays in total (a lot). Therefore, no GIFs, and abridged analysis. In order:

Situational play W/L
Our personnel/formation/play vs their defense run.

DRIVE 1

----------

-1-yd Run
14:56 - 1st
R.White up the middle to TB 19 for -1 yards (C.Bryant, L.Williams).
1st & 10 at TB 20

L
11 personnel, Strong Left. We Speed Motion to the weak side into a 3x1 and run Inside Zone behind it. We win everywhere, but they line up with the Strong Safety down in the box over the Trips and he activates immediately at the snap, becoming a free, downhill defender through the hole. White (who is not a great Inside Zone runner) has to diagnose this and reroute immediately to the boundary to have any chance at all. He doesn't and only the greatest Zone RBs with incredible vision and lateral agility are able to do so (and most of them likely only turn a -1 yard play into a 0 to 1 yard play...if that).

----------

13-yd Pass
14:15 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to C.Godwin to TB 32 for 13 yards (E.Jones).
2nd & 11 at TB 19

W
11 personnel w/ CG motioned across formation to 2x2 FMI (For Man Indicator). They don't follow, but they adjust, showing 3 Zone or 1 Man at the snap. They bail to 2 Zone over CG at snap and that is Baker's primary. Easy Hitch at vacated area and RAC for 13.

----------

27-yd Pass
13:34 - 1st
B.Mayfield pass deep left to C.Otton to SEA 41 for 27 yards (T.Knight).
1st & 10 at TB 32

W
12 personnel and we speed motion Durham across the formation to Unbalanced Left w/ Otton at the snap, playaction Weak Zone Boot w/ Durham cutting the edge (this action also looks like a Slide route for Durham...setup for later). We've got a pair of verts on the boot-side and EE on a Slant > Dig to follow the Boot. This off-platform throw to Otton's Corner is made by maybe 3 other QBs in the league. They're in 3 Zone which is a complete mismatch against this design.

----------

4-yd Pass
12:53 - 1st
B.Mayfield pass short right to R.White to SEA 37 for 4 yards (N.Emmanwori).
1st & 10 at SEA 41

W
Balanced 12 personnel and WR speed motion across the formation to Doubles Right. Quick play-action and RB Screen to that right side. The third Safety is LoS that side on the snap and is coming. They bail to 2 Zone from the other side. That LoS Safety blitzes and has really exceptional read & react on this to turn around and make the play while trailing. If he doesn't make that tackle, this is a big play on 1st down rather than just a play win for us.

----------

5-yd Run
12:16 - 1st
R.White left guard to SEA 32 for 5 yards (E.Jones; U.Nwosu).
2nd & 6 at SEA 37

W
Balanced 12 personnel after Durham crosses the formation FMI. We run a TE Counter left w/ RG and Durham pulling. Big play-side numerical advantage and blocked up solidly. Double w/ Wirfs and Bredeson on point-of-attack 3Tech should have done more. Wirfs gives Bredeson huge help and then climbs and wins vs LB. However, the moment Wirfs comes off the double, the displaced 3Tech beats Bredeson w/ a swim and makes the tackle in the hole...but 5 yards is a play win.

----------

3-yd Run
11:36 - 1st
R.White right guard to SEA 29 for 3 yards (T.Woolen, D.Hall).
3rd & 1 at SEA 32

W
13 personnel w/ Durham speed motion left at the snap putting the strength of the formation that side. Center goes to the right so this Duo w/ 8v8 in the box. They win play-side and White does a great job here reading it and rerouting to the right immediately, getting downhill off the Tackle/TE that side and just churning with pad level to turn this would-be play loss into a 3 yard gain for a play win and a great sitch of 3rd and 1.

----------

12-yd Pass
10:54 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short middle to C.Otton to SEA 17 for 12 yards (D.Thomas).
1st & 10 at SEA 29

W
11 personnel and we speed motion Tez to 2x2 then show play-action (from shotgun) left while pulling the LG to kick-out their left Edge. We run 4 verts; Skinny Post, Post, Corner, RB Wheel under the 2 x Posts. This just cripples the integrity of their 2 Zone. If we block it up for even a second, then Otton's simple outlet just beyond the LoS is going for big RAC. We do...it does.

----------

-4-yd Pass
10:09 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to S.Tucker to SEA 21 for -4 yards (D.Kendrick, B.Mafe).
1st & 10 at SEA 17

L
11 personnel and we speed motion Tez to split-backfield and then orbit motion to the left. We play-action Tucker away from the orbit, fake the WR screen to Tez on the orbit and then run a little RB Screen w/ Haggard peeling to the right in front of Tucker. Timing is weird. Their left Edge does a good job of reading and making a mess of this. NCB and LB both do a good job reading/reacting/playing with appropriate leverage and this play is crushed. Have to say that Tucker just doesn't look like a great space player. This play was cooked already, but this is clearly not his forte.

----------

5-yd Pass
9:27 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to S.Shepard to SEA 16 for 5 yards (T.Woolen).
2nd & 14 at SEA 21

L
11 personnel, Empty w/ Tucker, Trips Left. They show 2 deep and it looks like Cover 6; 4 over Trips and 2 over Doubles. They win vs our route combination (not situationally great) and get a lot of pocket push on the interior and right side. Dam doesn't break, but, combined with Sea early win vs our routes, forces Baker to escape pocket left. Basically scramble drill for a sideline 5 yards to Shep.

----------

4-yd Run
8:40 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to SEA 12 for 4 yards (N.Emmanwori).
3rd & 9 at SEA 16

L
11 personnel w/ Strong Right and Wide Right Stack for 3x1. They show 2 zone and a single LB mug look. LB bails and it looks like Cover 6 again w/ either MEG or Read on the single's side; matches our vert and CB wins. TE helps and then releases over RB for a checkdown look on the right side. They cover up the Double Post. Baker could have checked down to Otton for maybe a few more than the 4 we gained, but he has some space so he just gets 4 and we kick.

------------------

Net. We get a lot of Ws to start and they get the necessary Ls in Red Zone.

[Primeminister]

@Nobody Bro thank you for doing these breakdowns. These are invaluable in understanding some aspects of the game.

[Nobody]

Same deal for Seattle Drive 2. After this one, I'm going to be done with this thread about opening scripts. With this information set and at this point of evaluation, I'm very comfortable with the following conclusions; (a) Grizzard's deep ball concepts are very functional and interlocked coherently within the scope of the rest of the offense's concepts, (b) he/Piccuci/Carberry have masterfully navigated the abundance of OL injuries to both protect vulnerable players as well as keeping the offense functional, and (c) he is progressing as a play-caller in all the ways one improves.

Incompletion
4:05 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to C.Otton (T.Okada).
1st & 10 at TB 34

L
11 personnel w/ Strong Left and motion to Bunch Right. They show 2 deep and stay in 2 zone. We play-action Outside Zone Right w/ EE on a Slide Route under the formation back left with Baker booting that same way. Otton appropriately flattens his Corner route to a Deep Out over top of EE's Slide. This is basically a 2 man route w/ high-low read for those two. Baker continues booting and gets himself into a little trouble as his movement causes Wirfs's man (who is working outside leverage while Wirfs has inside won) to generate artificial pressure. Both the Out and the Slide are available here. Baker never gets off the high of the high-low read and goes for the Deep Out. Throw is a little high with contented catch-point. Incomplete.

Baker's process just needed to be a little better here. Pull up rather than continue booting. Get off the high read and take the easy Slide route for catch-and-run layup of 4-5 yards.

------------------

6-yd Run
4:00 - 1st
(Shotgun) R.White right guard to TB 40 for 6 yards (D.Thomas).
2nd & 10 at TB 34

W
21 personnel w/ Strong Right and motion to Williams from Slot to Split-backfield. They show 2 deep and light box. We run a Counter Trey Strong w/ LT and LG pulling from backside and we show Williams on a Slide/Kick-out in front of it and the other way. Blocked up decently and great decision by White to cut it up inside A gaps off one of the pulls. A couple yards after contact for 6.

------------------

8-yd Run
3:26 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles right end to TB 48 for 8 yards (T.Okada).
3rd & 4 at TB 40

W
11 personnel w/ Otton split out to the right, Bunch Left, and quicksnap. They show a mugged look w/ single high and bail to 3 zone. The backend would have had an open Dig at the sticks under a deeper Dig (Otton) which occupied the Hole defender. But that isn't the story. Either there is a protection miscommunication or Heck just gets beat terribly inside; the way Heck plays it looks like he was expecting White to pick up the Edge on an inside move if the DB blitzes off that same edge? Makes very little sense as a protection call. Regardless, White with an admirable pick-up of the Edge winning B gap across Heck's face. This allows Baker to bail the pocket right and Baker does what Baker does; jukes a defender and rumbles for 8. Play-call was a win due to that high-low concept in the middle winning. But protection call or Heck's set was an execution loss. Baker and White erase all of that for a play win.

-----------------

1-yd Run
2:41 - 1st
R.White left guard to TB 49 for 1 yard (B.Mafe; L.Williams).
1st & 10 at TB 48

L
12 personnel w/ Unbalanced Left and some fake-shifting FMI. Speed motion Godwin across the formation right at the snap and we run Counter Trey Strong (this time with C/T rather than G/T) again the other way. They show 2 deep but activate the Safety Godwin's motion-side. Play-side iDLs beat Bredeson and Durham/Wirf double team (less than that, Wirfs basically chipped and climbed...should have been more help here for Durham).

------------------

9-yd Pass
2:02 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to E.Egbuka pushed ob at SEA 42 for 9 yards (D.Kendrick).
2nd & 9 at TB 49

W
11 personnel w/ Strong Left for 2x2. They show 2 deep and roll to 3 zone. EE vs slot off coverage is a crisp 9 yard out with room to work due to vert pulling the boundary CB deep. EE gets separation for days vs Kendrick and Baker goes read 1, on time, perfect ball; easy 9.

------------------

2-yd Run
1:25 - 1st
T.Johnson right end to SEA 40 for 2 yards (T.Okada).
1st & 10 at SEA 42

L
11 personnel w/ Bunch Left and Otton as point there. They show 2 deep. We Jet motion wide bunch to the right, fake pitch left, inside hand-off Tez on a cheeky little interior Gap play to the Wing here w/ Wirfs pulling/leading and kicking out the Edge. This play was really close to popping off, but Barton couldn't get his chip and climb to ILB here. Good play by Jones and he limits it to 2. If Barton is able to cut him or interrupt Jones' fill at all, this is an easy 4. Game of inches.

-----------------

Incompletion
0:46 - 1st
B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to C.Otton (J.Jobe).PENALTY on SEA-B.Murphy, Roughing the Passer, 16 yards, enforced at SEA 40 - No Play.
2nd & 8 at SEA 40

L (negated by dumb SEA penalty)
12 personnel Unbalanced Right w/ EE tight split for a Bunch look that side. They show single high and roll to 2 zone but bring 5 on a 2 zone blitz. We play-action and this time it looks right w/ White picking up the interior player and Heck vertical setting against edge player. On the Bunch side, we've got Corner over Deep Out over Arrow. This flood concept will crush their 2 zone. Baker has to immediately come off of the high read here and check down to the Arrow who has space for literal days. He stays with the bracketed Deep Out and its easily broken up; this is where crazy arm talent makes you a little greedy. If he checks down right away to the Arrow and its a layup and probably 7+ RAC. Should have been a win. Turns into a loss. Which SEA gives right back with a dumb RtP.

--------------

3-yd Run
0:41 - 1st
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles right end to SEA 21 for 3 yards (T.Knight).
1st & 10 at SEA 24

L
11 personnel w/ Strong Left and Stack there for Bunch Left. They show 2 deep and roll to 1 Man Free w/ Hole player. We fake a Shovel Left to the RB w/ Otton out in front while pulling RG to other side to find work (he does...good job). Barton loses badly here. iDL crosses his face and it is instant A gap pressure. They also cover up the concept pretty well so this is just a big ole L across the board. Baker does his typical great job avoiding pressure and somehow turning a major, would-be negative play into +3. These are the kinds of hidden plays that don't get stressed enough. This is Mahomes kind of MVP stuff. Mahomes does this routinely. Baker does it a ton as well.

--------------

3-yd Pass
15:00 - 2nd
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to R.White to SEA 18 for 3 yards (N.Emmanwori; U.Nwosu).
2nd & 7 at SEA 21

L
12 personnel w/ both TE's split out left for 3x1 look. They show 2 deep. We speed motion Godwin from the inside of that Trips look to the bounary at the snap and give it a wheel look but he is really just climbing for an RB Screen. This is actually set up pretty well. This should have won. White, uncustomary doesn't read/set-up his space-blocks well. He continues pushing the play to the boundary a count too long. Interior leverage is won by the applicable players so he needs to plant his foot and get upfield earlier. This should have been 5-6, but that continuous press to the boundary after interior leverage is won and established by the blockers means leverage is fubar and interior pursuit has a chance to get to the ball. Should-have-been 5-6 yard Screen turns into only 3. Uncustomary RB error for a player who has elite applicable skillset here.

--------------

Incompletion
14:15 - 2nd
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to C.Godwin (T.Okada).
3rd & 4 at SEA 18

10 personnel w/ motion across formation FMI to 2x2. They show single-high and play simple 3 zone. Corner over Quickout (Godwin) at sticks on the left side vs off coverage is easy read; easy pitch-and-catch to Godwin. Godwin looks a hair labored here (fibula?) in his break, but he is easily open. He just drops the would-be first down.


---------------------

NET = another fantastic series for Grizzard and Piccuci/Carberry. Execution (and possibly an assignment error) on our end lead to 3 that might have been 7.

This thread is done.

[Doctor]

Excellent fucking thread!

So hyped that you concluded with some Carberry and Piccuci love too. Such unsung heroes.

[Grahamburn]

.

[Sooner06]

I haven't gotten through all of the breakdowns, but just wanted to thank @Nobody for doing these. Fascinating stuff. Appreciate you.

[Pirate Life]

@Nobody thanks for these, reading through them it seems Griz is turning out to be pretty good (though not Coen's level). Curious to hear your thoughts about the running game. Is it mostly the shuffling of the offensive line and communication/familiarity or are Griz's designs for the run game the bigger issue? Or combination of the o-line injuries and Griz still learning playcalls in the run game? Any evidence he's getting better in that part of the game?

[Grahamburn]

We're currently at 5.8 yards per play through 6 games. The 2024 bucs ended up at 6.2 yards per play but were 5.97 through 6 games. Definitely better in the red zone, but that was with a healthy line, Evans, and Godwin.

I don't think Grizz is too far off and his implementation of the vertical passing game has been instrumental in these wins. Defenses have to account for the entire field now.

[Nobody]

@Nobody thanks for these, reading through them it seems Griz is turning out to be pretty good (though not Coen's level). Curious to hear your thoughts about the running game. Is it mostly the shuffling of the offensive line and communication/familiarity or are Griz's designs for the run game the bigger issue? Or combination of the o-line injuries and Griz still learning playcalls in the run game? Any evidence he's getting better in that part of the game?

No problem. As to your questions. In no particular order:

* Yes, Grizz is absolutely improving in terms of the run game. There are lots of areas where a run game can go wrong.

One way is a personnel mismatch issue.

Some OL/TE are great vertically (climbing to 2nd level and hitting their mark) in space while not so great laterally (Zone footwork or pulling in Gap). Some OL/TE can't displace people vertically/horizontally when tasked with single teams or a pair can't get movement on doubles. Some climb well, but don't chip/double and release well then sort through traffic. Some are fantastic move blockers under particular conditions. Some Centers don't diagnose front complexities and sort out assignments well.

Some RBs are great at reading Zone, pressing the playside, being possessed of the vision and lateral/one-cut explosiveness to get vertical/cut back the instance the crease shows. Those RBs are also very good with contact balance through that 1st level, OL/DL trash that is common in Zone. Some aren't good at one or more of these things. But those RBs might be exceptional in Gap where patience, the ability to set up blocks/leverage, and the ability to explode and make a defender miss with a little more space on the boundary are at a premium.

Anyway, there is even more. Point being, there is a huge toolkit available at these positions and OL/TE/RBs are diverse in their breadth and potency of abilities.

We've been stable in the TE room and in the RB room (meaning either Bucky or White has been available), but the OL room has just had an unbelievable array of complexities thrusted upon it. We had some of this last year with Skule having to play a lot early with Wirfs and Goedeke both going down for small stretches, but those stretches weren't massive and our iOL (I'm pretty sure) was stable the whole time; which is a huge deal.

So our trio of relevant coaches here are having to work in real time to figure out all of this personnel stuff and stitch it together (it isn't just the best 5 on the OL...it is also pairings and iOL and who needs help where/how etc). Honestly, I'm really shocked at how well they've done on this end. The performance they've gotten out of the OL is just remarkable. Remember how Coen left Skule out to dry in the Detroit game and it was just a cluster. I've seen none of that this year. They have done an amazing job of protecting this MASH unit with scheme and playcall.

* Yes, Grizz is absolutely getting better in all phases; (a) matching available personnel to run game concept on the fly and (b) sequencing calls and marrying run/pass while sending false signals to the defense via set-dressing and cognitive load increasing tech (while also deploying that setup as actual playcalls later).

There is still certainly room for improvement for Grizz here, but it is difficult to suss that out from the noise of all of these OL injuries and not overloading the mental bandwidth of either individual players or the group collectively. I also expect the lack of diversity and the lack of motion early in the season (first 2 weeks in particular) was almost surely about that last sentence; don't overload the MASH unit...make calls and assignments clear, direct, simplified. He has certainly ramped up the complexity and diversity as the year has worn on.

* Grizz can get better in the run game though. I think the two areas are (a) staying with it on certain down and distance (especially 3rd and medium in neutral or plus territory...we need to call more runs there) and (b) calling the right personnel groupings and plays in the Redzone (which...again, is complicated by all these OL injuries).

* Finally, unrelated to the above about the run game, the tape has clearly shown that a not-insignificant amount of Baker's percentages/numbers (completion, YPA) waning are related to Baker making some mistakes where he is not coming off the high read and getting to the low. I expect this is "a thing" for Baker and I we didn't see it manifest last year because there wasn't as many high reads embedded in Coen's passing game to come off. When you have the crazy arm talent and ability to throw off platform like Baker has, sometimes guys think they can fit low percentage throws in. That will get you in trouble sometimes by putting the ball in danger and/or racking up incompletions on 1st and 10, when the play is take the easy 2nd read or checkdown layup that is intended to become open due to the vertical concept on top of it. The tape is showing a fair bit of that for Baker. Not an enormous amount, but enough to make up some of the numerical disparity we're seeing in contrast with last year's hyper-efficiency.

The other part is obviously OL issues where Baker is having to make plays under more duress than last year (which he is doing at a ridiculous, MVP, rate). My assessment of Baker's play this year is (a) it isn't as broadly as good as last year's play but (b) it this year's play is situationally just effing remarkable. And football is about situational play. So if you are very good at general QBing (which he has been this year), but absolutely top-tier at the situational stuff? That makes for an MVP caliber season (in contrast with last year where he was putting out elite play around top 4-8 by end of year).

[Selmon Rules]

@Nobody thanks for these, reading through them it seems Griz is turning out to be pretty good (though not Coen's level). Curious to hear your thoughts about the running game. Is it mostly the shuffling of the offensive line and communication/familiarity or are Griz's designs for the run game the bigger issue? Or combination of the o-line injuries and Griz still learning playcalls in the run game? Any evidence he's getting better in that part of the game?

Best I remember, Coen at the start of the year wasn't nearly as good as Coen at the end of the year either so Griz is on track, learning, and getting better as the year goes on.

[Pirate Life]

@Nobody, thank you for that breakdown. That's what I was thinking from watching the games but it's been difficult for me to decipher with how muddy things have been with the o-line and only seeing the broadcast shots for the most part.

Coen's run game started off rough, but that seemed to be more because he used zone blocking more than man when our line and backs do better with man. When he switched over to fit the players rather than try to keep calling it predominantly is when I really was sold on him.

Thanks for all that you do here!