The Draft Week Thread!

[Doctor]

It's draft week!

Time to bring all that Draft Forum research into TD.

Who are we picking? Who do you want us to pick?
What's your short list/big board look like?
Anyone you want to avoid?

3 days till draft day, let's get hyped!

[BJJ34]

I just want to know what team is lucky enough to draft Tyler Warren.

[Cheb]

Normally I dive much deeper into draft research and do a big mock, but my time is increasingly limited.

I think I could eventually come around to any first round pick that wasn't a quarterback or offensive lineman.

[Snake]

Let's draft more mediocre front 7 defenders with the first 3 picks.

[BucsNBills]

1st: Donovan Ezeiruaku
2nd: Darien Porter
3rd: Demetrious Knight Jr.

[Grahamburn]

I think the apex of immediate impact need intersecting with best available player ends up being Malaki Starks. Super high IQ and ball skills to put next to AWJr. and/or bring down into the nickel to be interchangeable chess piece with Tykee.

Starks is who I expect us to select.

[Backside]

I think the apex of immediate impact need intersecting with best available player ends up being Malaki Starks. Super high IQ and ball skills to put next to AWJr. and/or bring down into the nickel to be interchangeable chess piece with Tykee.

Starks is who I expect us to select.

Starks or Baron would both be exciting picks for me. Best available EDGE would feel like a complete dice roll, but certainly a need.

Surprised if we go anywhere else. If it’s an offensive weapon it better be a home run pick.

[Grahamburn]

I think the apex of immediate impact need intersecting with best available player ends up being Malaki Starks. Super high IQ and ball skills to put next to AWJr. and/or bring down into the nickel to be interchangeable chess piece with Tykee.

Starks is who I expect us to select.

Starks or Baron would both be exciting picks for me. Best available EDGE would feel like a complete dice roll, but certainly a need.

Surprised if we go anywhere else. If it’s an offensive weapon it better be a home run pick.

Safety is the one spot where they haven't spent any money all off-season. Starks starts on defense right away and helps in our biggest area of weakness.

I like Barron too, but don't think he really fits the archetype of player Bowles likes from a size perspective, but if he's there he's a home run slot player immediately. Tykee goes to safety.

Both players fit and help right away.

[Bootz]

Guaranteed 2025starter being taken Thursday no matter the position.

[Sdbucs]

Realistic 1st round rated prospects we may have at #19 I'm happy with:

Offense -
RB - Jeanty
WR - Tetairoa Mcmillan, Matthew Golden
BPA O-Line

Defense -
DE - Mike Green, Pierce Jr.
BPA DT - Kenneth Grant
BPA CB (Barron, Johnson, Amos, Revel)
S - Malaki Starks

Maybe a TE at Warren or Loveland, but not exactly over the moon with a TE there

[BucsNBills]

How many teams draft players in the 1st round and don't want them starting immediately? I'm confident everyone drafting this Thursday wants their 1st round selection, regardless of position, to be starting in September.

[Sdbucs]

Would people be happy if we traded a massive draft haul to move up and snag Travis Hunter at #2 overall?

Guy is elite

[Grahamburn]

Guaranteed 2025starter being taken Thursday no matter the position.

Do other teams take guys in the first round with the intention of not starting them?

[Backside]

Would people be happy if we traded a massive draft haul to move up and snag Travis Hunter at #2 overall?

Guy is elite

It’s not very logical, and the price would be huge. But I’d definitely be excited to have him. I think he’s incredible.

[Bootz]

Guaranteed 2025starter being taken Thursday no matter the position.

Do other teams take guys in the first round with the intention of not starting them?

I don't think most force the issue.

[Backside]

Any stats to back that up? Because I promise more than 17 out of 32 teams will start their top draft pick.

[Grahamburn]

Do other teams take guys in the first round with the intention of not starting them?

I don't think most force the issue.

You complain if they start. You complain if they start and don’t contribute enough. You complain if they don’t push for enough playing time.

You ever happy?

[Grahamburn]

[__Chef__]

NFL.com's Top 50 Prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft:

[Snake]

Right.

How’s he look on tape?

(Not a loaded question. I really don’t know him.)

[Bootz]

I don't think most force the issue.

You complain if they start. You complain if they start and don’t contribute enough. You complain if they don’t push for enough playing time.

You ever happy?

Show me the complaint and we can proceed. But I'm really not in the mood for your bullshit today so I'll give another spoiler. This is yet another instance of you making a baseless claim and like the other instances I'm calling your bluff. You won't respond, you'll just fade away until your next opportunity.

Just say you want my attention and move along.

[Sdbucs]

Would people be happy if we traded a massive draft haul to move up and snag Travis Hunter at #2 overall?

Guy is elite

It’s not very logical, and the price would be huge. But I’d definitely be excited to have him. I think he’s incredible.

Guy might actually be one of the most talented players to enter the league ever. He's been a top rated prospect since high school. Just feels like as sure of a prospect as there has ever been.

[__Chef__]

Grok Deeper Research on Draftee ProBowl or Bust percentages:

Pos	R1 Pro	R1 Bust	R2 Pro	R2 Bust	R3 Pro	R3 Bust
QB	43.75%	37.00%	19.07%	73.00%	11.46%	83.00%
RB	60.00%	42.00%	26.16%	73.00%	15.72%	84.00%
WR	18.92%	42.00%	8.25%	73.00%	4.96%	84.00%
TE	50.00%	33.00%	21.80%	61.00%	13.10%	71.00%
OT	23.81%	17.00%	10.38%	61.00%	6.24%	71.00%
DE	40.48%	42.00%	17.65%	74.00%	10.60%	84.00%
DT	20.69%	42.00%	9.02%	74.00%	5.42%	84.00%
LB	38.89%	30.00%	16.96%	66.00%	10.19%	76.00%
CB	35.90%	36.00%	15.65%	70.00%	9.41%	80.00%
S	35.00%	36.00%	15.26%	70.00%	9.17%	80.00%

Note: Bust rates for rounds 2-3 are approximated using historical success rates, with some positions grouped (e.g., OL, DL, DB) due to data availability.

Conclusion and Limitations
This analysis provides a structured approach to estimating Pro Bowl and bust probabilities for the top 100 prospects in the 2025 NFL draft, based on historical trends and projected draft rounds. However, it acknowledges limitations, such as the approximation of draft rounds from rankings and the potential variability in individual player outcomes due to factors like injuries, coaching, and team fit. The method aims to offer a general guide, with examples illustrating the application for key prospects.


Key Citations
Arrowhead Pride what the statistics tell us about the draft by round

Football Next Level 1st Round Picks and NFL Pro Bowl last 10 years 2011-2020

Reddit r/NFL Pro-Bowl Likelihood and Draft Position

Drafttek 2025 NFL Draft Big Board

[Sdbucs]

Grok Deeper Research on Draftee ProBowl or Bust percentages:

Pos	R1 Pro	R1 Bust	R2 Pro	R2 Bust	R3 Pro	R3 Bust
QB	43.75%	37.00%	19.07%	73.00%	11.46%	83.00%
RB	60.00%	42.00%	26.16%	73.00%	15.72%	84.00%
WR	18.92%	42.00%	8.25%	73.00%	4.96%	84.00%
TE	50.00%	33.00%	21.80%	61.00%	13.10%	71.00%
OT	23.81%	17.00%	10.38%	61.00%	6.24%	71.00%
DE	40.48%	42.00%	17.65%	74.00%	10.60%	84.00%
DT	20.69%	42.00%	9.02%	74.00%	5.42%	84.00%
LB	38.89%	30.00%	16.96%	66.00%	10.19%	76.00%
CB	35.90%	36.00%	15.65%	70.00%	9.41%	80.00%
S	35.00%	36.00%	15.26%	70.00%	9.17%	80.00%

Note: Bust rates for rounds 2-3 are approximated using historical success rates, with some positions grouped (e.g., OL, DL, DB) due to data availability.

Conclusion and Limitations
This analysis provides a structured approach to estimating Pro Bowl and bust probabilities for the top 100 prospects in the 2025 NFL draft, based on historical trends and projected draft rounds. However, it acknowledges limitations, such as the approximation of draft rounds from rankings and the potential variability in individual player outcomes due to factors like injuries, coaching, and team fit. The method aims to offer a general guide, with examples illustrating the application for key prospects.


Key Citations
Arrowhead Pride what the statistics tell us about the draft by round

Football Next Level 1st Round Picks and NFL Pro Bowl last 10 years 2011-2020

Reddit r/NFL Pro-Bowl Likelihood and Draft Position

Drafttek 2025 NFL Draft Big Board

I just ran a similar but for picks 16-32 in the past 10 years. Of course "hit" and "bust" depend on how the AI defined each.

C Hit 100%, Bust 10-15% - Small Sample Size
OT Hit 60%, Bust 45-50%
Guard Hit 45%, Bust 55-60%
QB Hit 40%, Bust 65-70%
RB Hit 40%, Bust 60-65%
WR Hit 25%, Bust 70-75%
TE Hit 40%, Bust 60-65%
DT Hit 35%, Bust 65-70%
DE Hit 45%, Bust 55-60%
LB Hit 55%, Bust 45-50%
CB Hit 35%, Bust 65-70%
S Hit 40%, Bust 60-65%

Key Observations
Safest Positions: Center (10–15%) and linebacker (45–50%) remain the safest in 16–32, though centers are rarely picked here. Offensive tackles (~45–50%) are also relatively safe but riskier than in the top 15.

Riskiest Positions: Wide receiver (70–75%), quarterback (65–70%), and cornerback (~65–70%) have the highest bust rates, as teams often reach for upside in these premium positions.

Quarterbacks: QBs in 16–32 (~65–70%) are particularly risky, with few hits outside of Lamar Jackson. Teams drafting QBs here often bet on developmental prospects who fail to pan out.

Trends: The bust rate in 16–32 is ~5–10% higher than the full first round due to the talent drop-off. Positions like WR and CB suffer most from teams overvaluing athleticism over production.

Sample Size Issues: Positions like center, guard, and tight end have fewer picks in 16–32, making estimates less reliable. WR, QB, and CB have more data, grounding their high bust rates.

Notes and Caveats
Data Gaps: The ESPN hit rates (2000–2019) aren’t specific to 16–32 or 2015–2024, so I adjusted based on general trends (e.g., ~25–30% second-contract rate for 16–32). Recent draft analyses help but don’t cover all positions comprehensively.

Bust Definition: Second-contract signings remain the proxy, but this may overstate busts for players who leave in free agency or understate them for average performers retained (e.g., Trae Waynes).

Examples: I used players like Jalen Reagor (WR) and Paxton Lynch (QB) to illustrate busts, with some picks just outside 16–32 (e.g., Eli Apple) for context where 16–32 examples were sparse.

Source Usage: ESPN’s hit rate data was the foundation, with The Athletic, Daily Norseman, Bleacher Report, and Pro Football Network providing recent context. No direct 16–32 studies for 2015–2024 were found.

[GoldenBudda]

It's draft week!

Time to bring all that Draft Forum research into TD.

Who are we picking?
I'm putting my $$ on Donovan Ezeiruaku. The Bucs love this guy. He's the most polished olb in the draft and he has good character. He's their prototypical player

Who do you want us to pick?
Kenneth Grant all the way. Platoon with Vea.

What's your short list/big board look like?
1. Travis Hunter wr
2. Kenneth Grant dt
3. Jalon Walker olb
4. Donovan Ezeiruaku olb
5. Jahdae Barron cb
6. Malaki Starks db

Anyone you want to avoid?
All OL and QB's, kickers and punters. Seriously, there's lots of players I would avoid at #19.
I also wouldn't pick any RB, WR, TE, or ILB because they're nowhere near BPA for me. Add
Walter Nolen
Mike Greene
James Pearce, Jr
Tyler Warren
Derrick Harmon

3 days till draft day, let's get hyped!

[mdb1958]

Let's draft more mediocre front 7 defenders with the first 3 picks.

Name them for the 2025 draft please as I've been wanting to know for months now.

[Snake]

Let's draft more mediocre front 7 defenders with the first 3 picks.

Name them for the 2025 draft please as I've been wanting to know for months now.

Whoever Jason drafts

[Grahamburn]

You complain if they start. You complain if they start and don’t contribute enough. You complain if they don’t push for enough playing time.

You ever happy?

Show me the complaint and we can proceed. But I'm really not in the mood for your bullshit today so I'll give another spoiler. This is yet another instance of you making a baseless claim and like the other instances I'm calling your bluff. You won't respond, you'll just fade away until your next opportunity.

Just say you want my attention and move along.

I can just bump the Mauch and Goedeke threads where you buried both after their first year and chastise Licht for small school linemen. Reddick thread where you said his signing is an indictment of Braswell and that they’ve given up on him.

McMillan being hype. On and on.

[Grahamburn]

Right.

How’s he look on tape?

(Not a loaded question. I really don’t know him.)

Great tape 22-23. He got moved to their “Star” spot last year and got beat a few times in man.

His combine wasn’t RAS eye popping the way Emmanwori’s was but he’s one of those football athletes. Great IQ. Ball skills.

[Grahamburn]

Nice interview with Starks:

https://www.thedraftnetwork.com/2025/04 ... rview-2025

[mdb1958]

Right.

How’s he look on tape?

(Not a loaded question. I really don’t know him.)

Great tape 22-23. He got moved to their “Star” spot last year and got beat a few times in man.

His combine wasn’t RAS eye popping the way Emmanwori’s was but he’s one of those football athletes. Great IQ. Ball skills.

Don't like this, make a comparison chart so I can see what the others did.

[Snake]

Your tendency to tell people what to do…

Has it worked once?

[__Chef__]

Your tendency to tell people what to do…

Has it worked once?

[Phantom]

In honor of draft week, I own seven different Nike Bucs polo shirts and have been wearing them since Sunday/all week. However, on Thursday I’ll be wearing a red Brady jersey for the draft night.

What are your plans for the draft night? I know it starts at 8 so I’ll order some wings.

[Grahamburn]

Your tendency to tell people what to do…

Has it worked once?

I’ve been working on my chart all night.