"Baker Mayfield Must Evolve In These 2 Areas"

[__Chef__]

Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield found another gear in 2024. It was arguably his best season as a pro as he led the Bucs to their second consecutive NFC South title with him at the helm.

He set career highs in passing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt and adjusted completion percentage. Pro Football Focus credited him with the best grades of his career and ranked him sixth among qualifying quarterbacks last year. Over the past two seasons Mayfield has resurrected his career and entrenched himself as Tampa Bay’s franchise quarterback, replacing Tom Brady, which is quite a feat.

While the Bucs’ scheme gave Mayfield a leg up with a varied and creative screen game, Mayfield made excellent strides when targeting the most difficult part of the field. On intermediate passes Mayfield completed 61.4% of his passes and averaged 10.9 yards per attempt. Both marks were easily the best of his career.

Benefiting from an offensive coordinator who tailored a scheme to his strengths while playing the best ball of his career, Mayfield lifted the Bucs to several wins they otherwise would not have had in 2024. But there are still two areas of his game that still have room to improve that could see Mayfield hit yet another level in 2025.

Baker Mayfield Takes Too Many Sacks
Baker Mayfield’s penchant for not giving up on plays is the quintessential double-edged sword. It both creates some of the most spectacular plays you will ever see but can also set the offense back more than necessary...

Baker Mayfield Needs To Work On Deep Throws
There was a time where Baker Mayfield was one of the most productive deep passers in the NFL. He ranked fifth in cumulative EPA on throws of 20+ air yards in 2018 and 12th in 2020. But during his time in Tampa Bay that part of Mayfield’s game has eroded. In 2023 he was 25th in EPA on deep passes and last year he was 26th.

Part of that reduction is due to a change in how he attacks the field. During his time in Cleveland at the beginning of his career, Mayfield targeted the deep part of the field 11.4% of the time. That number has come down to 9.8% in Tampa Bay and bottomed out to 7.5% last year. The Bucs offense was lethal at creating explosive plays. But those plays came most offense with a great deal of yards after the catch. But the one element of the offense that trailed the league average was attacking downfield...

https://www.pewterreport.com/baker-mayf ... n-2-areas/

[__Chef__]

I read this article and thought one specific thing is being overlooked:

Ball Control (play clock)

Bowles doesn't want his defense winded, conversely, he DOES want theirs winded by the end of the game. Having these long methodical drives helps keep his defense rested and by the end of the game, the opposition is missing tackles by Bucky, and coming up an inch short on Mike Evans catches.

Completion percentage on deep shots is around 50%. There's a place for taking these shots, but unless his arm is throwing ducks and/or we are severely behind and running out of time, I'd say it's smarter to not look at this reduced deep shot rate as an area of concern that needs to be rectified.

[Buc2]

I read this article and thought one specific thing is being overlooked:

Ball Control (play clock)

Bowles doesn't want his defense winded, conversely, he DOES want theirs winded by the end of the game. Having these long methodical drives helps keep his defense rested and by the end of the game, the opposition is missing tackles by Bucky, and coming up an inch short on Mike Evans catches.

Completion percentage on deep shots is around 50%. There's a place for taking these shots, but unless his arm is throwing ducks and/or we are severely behind and running out of time, I'd say it's smarter to not look at this reduced deep shot rate as an area of concern that needs to be rectified.

I’m okay with less deep passing. He definitely needs to work on reducing the sacks, though.

[Bootz]

This isn't exclusively a Baker problem.

I'm glad you posted this article @__Chef__ because it gives us a forum to discuss WHY those things occur. It stems from the OL.

#1, Baker takes too many sacks for multiple reasons. For his part, he's not a very fast processor. He takes too long going through progressions and he's not very instinctive as a passer. 1st read, 2nd read covered he panics and tries to do too much.

That said, look at the type of plays he's getting sacked on. A lot quick routes. Those are designed to be 1-3 steps and the ball is out. His TTT was I believe 2nd lowest last year behind Tua. Coen had to throw in way more short routes to help this OL out in pass pro. Especially the interior. If those receivers aren't open, there's generally no where to go with the ball quickly and Baker tries to play super hero.

#2, the deep throws. Again, not exclusively a Baker problem but he does play a role. When he does get those shots he seems to throw more 50/50 balls than actual attempts at deep completions. Rarely is he throwing downfield to a receiver in 1 on 1. Evans is our only true deep threat and he's blanketed more often than not. We dont have a real TE threat in the middle so things are pretty much kept short. Baker isn't as accurate as his completion % from last year would lead you to believe.

That said, this stems back to the OL. They dont hold up very long in pass pro. Coen stopped dialing up those as much the further we got into the season.

[Bootz]

I read this article and thought one specific thing is being overlooked:

Ball Control (play clock)

Bowles doesn't want his defense winded, conversely, he DOES want theirs winded by the end of the game. Having these long methodical drives helps keep his defense rested and by the end of the game, the opposition is missing tackles by Bucky, and coming up an inch short on Mike Evans catches.

This is a fallacy.

Bowles isn't purposely trying to get long methodical drives out of the offense. If it happened, it was out of coincidence. Long methodical drives means more chances for mistakes and that's exactly what happened with us. Turnovers will hurt your defense a hell of a lot more than your offense scoring quickly.

Teams, ours included, prefer explosives because it minimizes the number of plays it takes to score and if you have a good defense, gives you more chances at scoring and puts pressure on the other team to keep up. No coach is purposely looking for 15 play drives.

[__Chef__]

...If those receivers aren't open, there's generally no where to go with the ball quickly and Baker tries to play super hero...

Having Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson in the mix will help tremendously.

Tez Johnson’s 92.8% open target rate in 2024 places him at the apex of college wide receivers for separation, likely surpassing many NFL players. Emeka Egbuka’s success rates (68.1% vs. man, 83.6% vs. zone, 82nd percentile for zone) indicate strong separation skills, particularly against zone, but suggest he’s not at Johnson’s elite level. Both players would likely rank well among college peers, with Johnson potentially leading and Egbuka in the upper tier, while in the NFL, Johnson’s rate is exceptional, and Egbuka’s metrics align with competitive performance.

[Snake]

If the offensive line holds up long enough for them to get open

[__Chef__]

I read this article and thought one specific thing is being overlooked:

Ball Control (play clock)

Bowles doesn't want his defense winded, conversely, he DOES want theirs winded by the end of the game. Having these long methodical drives helps keep his defense rested and by the end of the game, the opposition is missing tackles by Bucky, and coming up an inch short on Mike Evans catches.

This is a fallacy.

Bowles isn't purposely trying to get long methodical drives out of the offense. If it happened, it was out of coincidence. Long methodical drives means more chances for mistakes and that's exactly what happened with us. Turnovers will hurt your defense a hell of a lot more than your offense scoring quickly.

Teams, ours included, prefer explosives because it minimizes the number of plays it takes to score and if you have a good defense, gives you more chances at scoring and puts pressure on the other team to keep up. No coach is purposely looking for 15 play drives.

Would he prefer the first play ends up with broken tackles all over the field and a quick TD?
Sure, who wouldn't?

Would he prefer 3 incompletions downfield and a punt?
No.

It's a fundamental part of why the run game is important.

[Bootz]

This is a fallacy.

Bowles isn't purposely trying to get long methodical drives out of the offense. If it happened, it was out of coincidence. Long methodical drives means more chances for mistakes and that's exactly what happened with us. Turnovers will hurt your defense a hell of a lot more than your offense scoring quickly.

Teams, ours included, prefer explosives because it minimizes the number of plays it takes to score and if you have a good defense, gives you more chances at scoring and puts pressure on the other team to keep up. No coach is purposely looking for 15 play drives.

Would he prefer the first play ends up with broken tackles all over the field and a quick TD?
Sure, who wouldn't?

Would he prefer 3 incompletions downfield and a punt?
No.

It's a fundamental part of why the run game is important.

Yes, the run game keeps things balanced. You're over exaggerating with that 2nd question. Not even the most explosive offenses are just gonna throw up 3 prayers and punt.

Your premise was that Bowles prefers methodical drives to keep the defense fresh. Sure, if it comes as a result of a methodical drive that eats up clock and plays. But (and I'm gonna take a page out of your book here). He's not telling guys to catch a 6 yard pass and fall down or having his RBs get 5 yards and then sliding so we can keep the ball and control the clock.

[__Chef__]

If the offensive line holds up long enough for them to get open

This year will be the first one with continuity without a rookie in how long?

2024 rookie Barton
2023 rookie Mauch
2022 rookie Goedeke

I'm expecting them to improve, mostly Barton. Not expecting 7 step dropbacks to be the norm. PA shots should be sufficient.

[__Chef__]

...He's not telling guys to catch a 6 yard pass and fall down or having his RBs get 5 yards and then sliding so we can keep the ball and control the clock.

Imagining this in my head is hilarious.

Booth: "I have no idea what is going on right now ... is he literally coaching his players to get 5 yards and give up?"

Camera zooms in on Bowles looking across the field at his opponent, giving them a sharp Sean Payton blue steel look.

Booth: "Is this the equivalent of a boxer showing off by keeping one arm behind his back, and still dominating the ring?" ... "I think you might be onto something, Pat." ... "Maybe this is his new protocol to emphasize player safety" ... "Whatever it is, it's bazaar ... I've never seen anything like it"

Blue steel look continues, unwavering.

[Central_Buc]

This isn't exclusively a Baker problem.

I'm glad you posted this article @__Chef__ because it gives us a forum to discuss WHY those things occur. It stems from the OL.

#1, Baker takes too many sacks for multiple reasons. For his part, he's not a very fast processor. He takes too long going through progressions and he's not very instinctive as a passer. 1st read, 2nd read covered he panics and tries to do too much.

That said, look at the type of plays he's getting sacked on. A lot quick routes. Those are designed to be 1-3 steps and the ball is out. His TTT was I believe 2nd lowest last year behind Tua. Coen had to throw in way more short routes to help this OL out in pass pro. Especially the interior. If those receivers aren't open, there's generally no where to go with the ball quickly and Baker tries to play super hero.

#2, the deep throws. Again, not exclusively a Baker problem but he does play a role. When he does get those shots he seems to throw more 50/50 balls than actual attempts at deep completions. Rarely is he throwing downfield to a receiver in 1 on 1. Evans is our only true deep threat and he's blanketed more often than not. We dont have a real TE threat in the middle so things are pretty much kept short. Baker isn't as accurate as his completion % from last year would lead you to believe.

That said, this stems back to the OL. They dont hold up very long in pass pro. Coen stopped dialing up those as much the further we got into the season.

I was going to respond in the other thread but was gonna say appreciate your analysis in the OL having to scheme for their deficiencies.

You and I are seeing this in two different ways. You feel that the current OL is the final product. I keep saying no because it's not only having to be a rookie (s) it's that the entire group (this is any great OL in football) need time to gel as a unit.

Of course these past 2 years they have to try scheme around that. Godeke getting his ass kicked as a guard his rookie year made him a better RT.

We will have to agree to disagree. I'm not going back and forth with you.

[Bootz]

Imagine offering your unsolicited reply to a post of mine and then telling me "we're going to have to agree to disagree, I'm not going back and forth with you". Minding your fucking business and not volunteering your opinion here is how you REALLY avoid going back and forth, kiddo.

Unbelievable. You honestly could've kept that shit to yourself @Central_Buc

[Grahamburn]

I guess it’s good to still have things to improve on when you’re already a top 5 offense in the league.

Baker needs to get back to 2023 levels in terms of the turnover worthy plays. He takes too many sacks but he also avoided a shit ton of them.

Deep balls? Meh. Who cares? Not our game and no reason to force it.

[Central_Buc]

Imagine offering your unsolicited reply to a post of mine and then telling me "we're going to have to agree to disagree, I'm not going back and forth with you". Minding your fucking business and not volunteering your opinion here is how you REALLY avoid going back and forth, kiddo.

Unbelievable. You honestly could've kept that shit to yourself @Central_Buc

Unbelievable I know I am...what are you?

I mean I had you on ignore for a long time. And I know now I can just toy with you as I please as I can always just put you back on ignore and just continue laughing at you.

[Doctor]

Oh we still have a hell of a lot we can improve on on offense. And it's far more nuanced then just putting up a higher score or more yards.

And there is, absolutely, something to be said about the difference between a 12 play 7 minute drive and a 4 play 2 minute drive, particularly when we're talking about the TRUE goal of all this which is winning the game.

Do you still happily take either over nor scoring? Of course you do. But way too much of our offensive was fueled by our 2 and 4 minute drills to close out halves. And while it's great to know your offense CAN do that, it shouldn't be the only reliable tool in the room bag.

There's no such thing as a finished product in the NFL, the product is always in flux, week to week.

[Central_Buc]

There's no such thing as a finished product in the NFL, the product is always in flux, week to week.

LOL a vet offensive line that have been together for more than a handful of years is a finished product.

Whether that line is good or great or not is another story

Are you just sucking off to Bootz?

[Snake]

With quarterbacks like Baker, mitigating the flaws is a game of trade-offs. You limit the downfield stuff, and you risk nerfing his elite arm. You impose structure to limit the bad sacks, you cap the upside of longer developing plays and complicated scheme.

The only thing I know for certain is elite quarterbacks tend to be really good off script. when things break down, they make the right decisions. More often than not. Those are really backbreaking plays for the defense. When you really need to have it, they can do it.

I don’t expect Baker to be elite. Because I don’t think there’s more meat on the bone to find, without a cost somewhere else. And that’s okay. You can be very good and win.

But I’ve been wrong about him before.

[Cheb]

Mayfield's two problems are self-evident; taking bad sacks, particularly between the opposing 20 and 40 yard line, and throwing picks.

The remedy for these two problems is the same; stay within structure especially in the maroon zone, throw away the ball when the play isn't there, and live to fight another down.

Those are neck-up problems, ones which I think he would agree with as well as know intellectually and retrospectively. The way to correct them is by repping intentionality in decision-making, which is very doable and correctable. That also comes with experience and familiarity with teammates and within an offense, which he is banking up.

Mayfield's throwing arm is great, and he's the second best QB in franchise history already. I think he'll get there. Hell, he's already there in so many ways, he just needs to play cleaner.

Go Bucs.

[Babeinbucland]

I just re-watched our first game from last year. OMG we looked invincible. Then the injuries started. Every. Single. Game. It seemed like. And all th games we won after that was in spite of so many of our starters and ever second stringers, off the field. I find it remarkable that we did as well as we did last year and I credit Baker for most of that.

We stay healthy this year, we will be a force to be reckoned with. Book it.

[Central_Buc]

I just re-watched our first game from last year. OMG we looked invincible. Then the injuries started. Every. Single. Game. It seemed like. And all th games we won after that was in spite of so many of our starters and ever second stringers, off the field. I find it remarkable that we did as well as we did last year and I credit Baker for most of that.

We stay healthy this year, we will be a force to be reckoned with. Book it.

AWJ got injured week 1 and wasn't the same the rest of the season.

[Doctor]

There's no such thing as a finished product in the NFL, the product is always in flux, week to week.

LOL a vet offensive line that have been together for more than a handful of years is a finished product.

Curious, how do you figure?

You've already established a clear history of change. Luke year 1 vs Luke year 2 vs Luke 3 were all very clearly not the same. Yet somehow now he freezes? Barton freezes, Mauch freezes? No one gets better, no one's gets yips, no one gets strains... Heck, we know the team you are in September rarely looks like the team you are in December.

Nothing in sports is static. Hell, even the human body is always either in an anabolic or catabolic state.

We saw the most "finished product" in history flux juuuuust enough so that a mildly good team could also flux enough to beat them on the big stage. Yet it'd be insane to declare the "finished product" Giants (whatever that means) beat the Pats 10 out of 10 weeks.

In fact, the NFL is so much so the antithesis of the idea of a final product, they have a saying for it you may have heard, it's called Any Given Sunday.

[Central_Buc]

LOL a vet offensive line that have been together for more than a handful of years is a finished product.

Curious, how do you figure?

You've already established a clear history of change. Luke year 1 vs Luke year 2 vs Luke 3 were all very clearly not the same. Yet somehow now he freezes? Barton freezes, Mauch freezes?

You're talking about young men who are still in development

What made up hypothetical are you talking about?

Back to ignore you go, since I had you there with bootz licker.. Catch you later..maybe maybe not. Lol.

Boy was I sorry to give ya a 2nd chance.

Toodaloo

[Bootz]

Players don't hit 99 in real life and stay their infinitely until they reach age 30. Not how it works. Ask Tom Brady if he ever felt he reached his max, he'll laugh in your face for even thinking that's a possibility.

[Buc2]

Curious, how do you figure?

You've already established a clear history of change. Luke year 1 vs Luke year 2 vs Luke 3 were all very clearly not the same. Yet somehow now he freezes? Barton freezes, Mauch freezes?

You're talking about young men who are still in development

What made up hypothetical are you talking about?

Back to ignore you go, since I had you there with bootz licker.. Catch you later..maybe maybe not. Lol.

Boy was I sorry to give ya a 2nd chance.

Toodaloo

Jfc, dude. No one gives a shit if you ignore them or not. I’m sure they don’t either. Either do or don’t. What are you? 12?

[Bootz]

You're talking about young men who are still in development

What made up hypothetical are you talking about?

Back to ignore you go, since I had you there with bootz licker.. Catch you later..maybe maybe not. Lol.

Boy was I sorry to give ya a 2nd chance.

Toodaloo

Jfc, dude. No one gives a shit if you ignore them or not. I’m sure they don’t either. Either do or don’t. What are you? 12?

He's mentioned me twice since he supposedly put me "back" on ignore. I'm pretty sure when you place someone on ignore, you can't see what they post. You'd have to click the link to uncover their post. So it's really not ignore because the temptation is there.

You're right though. I couldn't care less.

[Central_Buc]

You're talking about young men who are still in development

What made up hypothetical are you talking about?

Back to ignore you go, since I had you there with bootz licker.. Catch you later..maybe maybe not. Lol.

Boy was I sorry to give ya a 2nd chance.

Toodaloo

Jfc, dude. No one gives a shit if you ignore them or not. I’m sure they don’t either. Either do or don’t. What are you? 12?

Oh You're just emotional cause I called you out the other day.

It's ok.

[Buc2]

Jfc, dude. No one gives a shit if you ignore them or not. I’m sure they don’t either. Either do or don’t. What are you? 12?

Oh You're just emotional cause I called you out the other day.

It's ok.

Nice come back. Did you get your mom to help you with that?

[Central_Buc]

Oh You're just emotional cause I called you out the other day.

It's ok.

Nice come back. Did you get your mom to help you with that?

My my..What are you 12?

[Central_Buc]

More like 8 times 12.

So @Buc2 is 96 and forgot to take his meds today?

Sounds plausible.

[Central_Buc]

So @Buc2 is 96 and forgot to take his meds today?

Sounds plausible.

Doesn't explain what you're so worked up about.

What am I "so" worked up about?

Edit: oh you must be his caretaker

[Bootz]

Pretty sure we're seeing a mental meltdown by Central_Buc. Not sure why but he's definitely having one.

[Sooner06]

Pretty sure Baker's deep ball percentage is going nowhere but up, as long as is primary weapons can manage to stay healthy. For an extended period last season his best WR was Sterling Shepard, for criminy's sake. Trey never got going, which hurt a lot because I think everyone thought he was going to have a breakout type year. And Miller and Jarrett are probably both backups at best. Then McMillan didn't find his stride until late in the season, but when he did it made a noticeable difference (through the first 12 weeks averaged about 2 rec/gm and just one TD/last 5 games, avgd 5 rec/gm and scored 7 TDs). We need him to get off to a fast start this season.


I really thought they were going to grind Baker about his running style.

[__Chef__]

... a vet offensive line that have been together for more than a handful of years is a finished product...

Within reason, this is pretty much true. Most players by year 3 show you what they are. Coach or scheme changes can of course drastically change this, but assuming those stay the same, by year 3, they are what they are.

[Bootz]

You can truly tell those who know very little to nothing about the game.

A finished product in sports is a retired product