All 22 vs Falcons

[Nobody]

1) Going to look at Vea’s dominant Pass Rush snaps (there were many…and he didn’t play a ton of snaps).

2) Going to look at the crucial plays in the Passing Game.


I can do one other thing but it’s got to be small and focused.

[Buc2]

1) Going to look at Vea’s dominant Pass Rush snaps (there were many…and he didn’t play a ton of snaps).

2) Going to look at the crucial plays in the Passing Game.


I can do one other thing but it’s got to be small and focused.

Take a look at some of the missed tackles if it's not too much. I'm curious to know if appears to be bad technique or if some other factors are involved. I realize that may be too subjective to quantify, but it seems other teams' defenses do a much better job tackling than we are...including Atlanta.

[Nobody]

We are a bad tackling team. It’s not just actual technique at the point of contact, it’s angles and the fit with adjacent defenders/boundary. When it comes to ILBs (I’m thinking White here), it also means reading/reacting > getting into fit before he’s lost angle with respect to climbing OL (that affects missed tackles or even opportunities for them between C gaps).

Are you thinking in the run game or CBs on Screens/Quick Hitches?

I can look at 3 plays.

[King Bootz]

Agree with @Buc2.Seems to be getting worse in my eyes.

If I could request a specific play, late in the game Mike Davis had a run to the right where he was 1 on 1 with DW. He literally out ran DW to the edge and gained a pretty nice chunk, 15 yards or so.

[Buc2]

We are a bad tackling team. It’s not just actual technique at the point of contact, it’s angles and the fit with adjacent defenders/boundary. When it comes to ILBs (I’m thinking White here), it also means reading/reacting > getting into fit before he’s lost angle with respect to climbing OL (that affects missed tackles or even opportunities for them between C gaps).

Are you thinking in the run game or CBs on Screens/Quick Hitches?

I can look at 3 plays.

I was thinking more about the screens/quick hitches. I think those are just killing us.

[Nobody]

Agree with @Buc2.Seems to be getting worse in my eyes.

If I could request a specific play, late in the game Mike Davis had a run to the right where he was 1 on 1 with DW. He literally out ran DW to the edge and gained a pretty nice chunk, 15 yards or so.

Which of these two do you mean:

11 Yard Run
(10:59) (Shotgun) M.Davis right guard to TB 11 for 11 yards (A.Winfield; R.Cockrell).
2nd & 18 at TB 22

This was an interior run 2nd Q (Devin was involved with this).

Or this one:

-10 Yard Penalty
(10:49) M.Ryan pass short right to M.Davis ran ob at TB 48 for 16 yards (C.Davis) [R.Nunez-Roches]. PENALTY on ATL-L.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36 - No Play.
2nd & 10 at ATL 36

This was a pass and Devin was clearly laboring (he never got out of 1st gear...for a guy who plays throttle to the floor play-in, play-out).

I mentioned in the "Walk the Plank" thread that Devin looked like he had no business being out there. His hip clearly must be hurt pretty badly because he is the antithesis of "contact-averse" and "hustle-challenged." Whatever your position on him, the guy loves contact and has an endless motor. Both of these plays and the game generally showed a guy who just couldn't play. Shouldn't have been out there. If he's hurt bad enough to put the product he put out there on Sunday, then he needs to sit until he can go full speed and full contact. They need to sit him and play Minter so he's healthy for the playoffs. If its a deep hip bruise, that thing will (a) harangue you for the duration and (b) can absolutely stay hurt due to contact.

[Redrum]

I'm watching the game now and Devin is definitely far from 100%. They should not have let him play.

[mdb1958]

They still doing that liquid hydrogen shower or whatever it was?

[AJPG]

Lmao

[Capsaicin]

Seems like we have been getting to the QB more lately and we haven't been as stout against the run. Has the strategy for the defense changed?

[PanhandleBuc]

I’m interested to know how many missed sacks/tackles JTS has had. Seems like he gets to the QBs so easily on limited snaps and then either misses or falls to the ground every time, especially from non-elusive QBs

I bet it’s 10 plus on the season for missed sacks.

[MJW]

I’m interested to know how many missed sacks/tackles JTS has had. Seems like he gets to the QBs so easily on limited snaps and then either misses or falls to the ground every time, especially from non-elusive QBs

I bet it’s 10 plus on the season for missed sacks.

I was just saying this. Dude leads the league in "almost" plays right now. A split-second more of confidence in his rush plan, and he's a dominant player. Hopefully, a good offseason of hard work gets him there.

[Cheb]

Seems like we have been getting to the QB more lately and we haven't been as stout against the run. Has the strategy for the defense changed?

Our stunts for one are much improved. Vea's first sack was a stunt where he was entirely u touched.

I'd also say that our depth is helping. We are getting quality reps from our backups, which lets our starters enter the latter parts of the game with more rest.

Probably multifactorial.

[MJW]

Seems like we have been getting to the QB more lately and we haven't been as stout against the run. Has the strategy for the defense changed?

Our stunts for one are much improved. Vea's first sack was a stunt where he was entirely u touched.

I'd also say that our depth is helping. We are getting quality reps from our backups, which lets our starters enter the latter parts of the game with more rest.

Probably multifactorial.

This is anecdotal, but to my untrained eye, Gholston, Nacho, and Nelson have all been playing their best football. It might not show up in the stats, but I'm seeing a lot of beaten blocks and chaos from those three. Relatively speaking. The stars are making the plays, but they're making the plays happen.

[uscbucsfan]

Our run defense has gone from elite to middle of the pack. We are 9th on the year for ypc, but that's after starting off at a historic pace.

[King Bootz]

Our run defense has gone from elite to middle of the pack. We are 9th on the year for ypc, but that's after starting off at a historic pace.

The only reason we give up so few yards on the ground statistically is because we are #1 in fewest rushing attempts per game. But teams are getting 4.1 ypc against us this year.

[Kress]

Our run defense has gone from elite to middle of the pack. We are 9th on the year for ypc, but that's after starting off at a historic pace.

I wonder how much of that had to do with us scheming to try to help a beat-up secondary.

[uscbucsfan]

Our run defense has gone from elite to middle of the pack. We are 9th on the year for ypc, but that's after starting off at a historic pace.

The only reason we give up so few yards on the ground statistically is because we are #1 in fewest rushing attempts per game. But teams are getting 4 ypc against us this year.

Yea, I don't go off of total yards.

YPC is the better metric when judging run defenses. We were at 3.6 last year and started the season below 3.5, but obviously that's fallen off.

[King Bootz]

The only reason we give up so few yards on the ground statistically is because we are #1 in fewest rushing attempts per game. But teams are getting 4 ypc against us this year.

Yea, I don't go off of total yards.

YPC is the better metric when judging run defenses. We were at 3.6 last year and started the season below 3.5, but obviously that's fallen off.

Going from 3.3 to 4.1 is insane quite honestly. And it's not as if it's QB scrambles that are gashing our run D.

[Backside]

Cam Gill might be a real player. Sack in the SB, sack last week. Think he got another in this game. He around the QB a lot.

[Nobody]

The rushing stats are a little misleading:

1) You've got a bunch of successful (play wins) QB Scrambles in the data that really make it noisy. Now THAT? That is something to complain about. That is an absolute clustereff because we've been KILLED by Scrambles this year. There is a lot to say about that but it comes down to play-calling at inopportune times, rush lane issues, JPP being a liability, JTS and White not winning when they're playing Spy.

Dak * 1
Hurts * 4
Fields * 1
Jameis * 4
Heinicke * 2
Jones * 1
Weintz * 2

That's 15 successful QB Scrambles for a lot of yards and a lot of 1st downs. That is (a) really hurting us and (b) distorting rushing stats (both Efficiency and YPC).

2) We dominated Indy until we went seriously light box (and light play-side) for 1 series and Reich/Taylor/Indy OL put it on us.

3) White was overwhelmingly responsible for last game's struggles in the run game. He shouldn't have been out there. His tape shows a player who was so tentative, so unaggressive, so laboring, so contact-averse that its hard to fathom how the coaches felt he was healthy enough to play. If Minter was in there or White was 100 %, last week wouldn't have come close to happening.

[Nobody]

Seems like we have been getting to the QB more lately and we haven't been as stout against the run. Has the strategy for the defense changed?

See above.

* The one drive against Indy was serious light box (I detailed that last week).

* This week it was about Devin's play which was clearly injury-related. He didn't get into his fit several times and/or was taken out by a climbing OL he should have beaten and/or was easily beaten to the edge in an unmolested chase-down opportunity where he has to make the tackle or Spill/Fill it.


The getting to the QB more is a by-product of (a) covering better on the backend, (b) better play-calling in key situations on the backend, (c) guys just winning more up front.

[Nobody]

They still doing that liquid hydrogen shower or whatever it was?

Liquid hydrogen shower or whatever has been confirmed all systems go by the "liquid hydrogen shower or whatever-inators" who administer it.

[Dread]

Our run defense has gone from elite to middle of the pack. We are 9th on the year for ypc, but that's after starting off at a historic pace.

I know this may not be popular but I don't even think YPC is that great of stat.

Rushing efficiency is really what teams look at in when it comes to measuring the effectiveness of their rushing attack or their opponents rushing defense. So while the Bucs defense has given up more than usual recently on the ground, our rushing efficiency on defense is still elite by NFL standards and I'd disagree we are a middle of the pack run defense. Again, I get an argument can be made otherwise looking at YPC/YPG recently.

Take the Falcons game as an example. They were able to rip off 3-4 really good runs on that opening drive and get like 70yds rushing, but essentially were shut down on the ground on most of their rushing attempts the rest of the way ending with 120yds.

The rate at which your run defense can stop teams from having 'efficient runs' (4+ yds, 1st down, or TD) is more important than YPC or YPG imo. Obviously you have to prevent getting gashed for big play also, but I think the Bucs can stop the run any time they want and have shown that.

Our YPC is getting skewed b/c teams (despite and impressive YPC) still don't attempt to run more, why is that? Imo it's our run efficiency on defense and ability to completely shut the run down. Which puts the offense behind the chains in 2nd/3rd and long situations that are low success rates and where negative plays like sacks and INTs most often occur.

TL;DR - I don't think the Bucs run D is as bad as advertised.

[Nobody]

Our stunts for one are much improved. Vea's first sack was a stunt where he was entirely u touched.

I'd also say that our depth is helping. We are getting quality reps from our backups, which lets our starters enter the latter parts of the game with more rest.

Probably multifactorial.

This is anecdotal, but to my untrained eye, Gholston, Nacho, and Nelson have all been playing their best football. It might not show up in the stats, but I'm seeing a lot of beaten blocks and chaos from those three. Relatively speaking. The stars are making the plays, but they're making the plays happen.

Nacho has had some key Pressures, but overall his Pass Rush has been utterly dismal. You're talking 9 Pressures in 197 Snaps and a horrific 6 % Win Rate.

Gholston has been very solid as he has been the last few years; 17 Pressures and 12.2 % Win Rate.

Both of those guys have been very solid in the run game.

Nelson has been serviceable; 10 Pressures and 11.8 % Win Rate. HOWEVER...2 of those Pressures and 1 of his 2 Sacks come from being completely unblocked. So his numbers are a little deceiving. His Long Arm Rush and ability to convert Speed to Power has improved, but he's barely more than "a guy" (if he's that).

I'd like to see JTS get a ton more snaps (with JPP on the sideline). I'd also like to see more of Gill.

[Dread]

JPP has become a weak link for this defense. His lack of pass rush used to be overlooked b/c he was always a great run defender setting the edge.

But recently he's getting completed washed too often. In that last drive vs Indy where they ran the ball down the field and the opening drive vs the Falcons when they did the same, in both instances the majority of the big runs have been right at JPP.

Something to monitor b/c if fans see it, you bet the opposing teams do also.

[Buc2]

JPP has become a weak link for this defense. His lack of pass rush used to be overlooked b/c he was always a great run defender setting the edge.

But recently he's getting completed washed too often. In that last drive vs Indy where they ran the ball down the field and the opening drive vs the Falcons when they did the same, in both instances the majority of the big runs have been right at JPP.

Something to monitor b/c if fans see it, you bet the opposing teams do also.

And, by extension, our own coaches see it too. So, wtf?

[Primeminister]

JPP has become a weak link for this defense. His lack of pass rush used to be overlooked b/c he was always a great run defender setting the edge.

But recently he's getting completed washed too often. In that last drive vs Indy where they ran the ball down the field and the opening drive vs the Falcons when they did the same, in both instances the majority of the big runs have been right at JPP.

Something to monitor b/c if fans see it, you bet the opposing teams do also.

That’s why we need to see more of Tryon over the next 4 games. We need to see if Tryon can set edge better than JPP. The coaching staff seems to be seeing the same thing because we saw more JTS and Gill than we normally do.

[Nobody]

This is where our coaches get in trouble with their loyalty and/or deference to certain guys. JPP apparently has an ENORMOUS amount of purchase with this coaching staff. Maybe they're taking the temperature of the room a bit too hard (eg "leadership intangibles").

Recall last year when we let JPP dictate which side he would rush on (eg, "they let Shaq and JPP decide..." which means "JPP picked his preferred side" because (a) it is his preferred side and he is 100 % the "disagreeable, dominant alpha" among those two) despite the reality that Barrett is clearly a better rusher from the right side (he's great on both sides but on the right side he is a top 5 producing Edge in the league).

Right now?

There isn't much of an excuse. JPP's 2021 tape is, quite literally, about as brutal of tape as you'll ever see. He's never been a great producer in Pass Rush. His Win Rate and Pressure Rate has always been below average to very poor (despite seeing a lot of singles). He's always been opportunistic, high motor, violent and a great finisher (so if he's there, he's getting his guy to the ground). More a "Sack Player" than a consistent "Pressure Player."

This year...with those injuries? He's getting nothing done...anywhere. He'll have the stray "did his job" snap...but in PFF terms, he's consistently putting out -1s and -2s.

His Stop Rate in the run game is just awful. He's not creating negative plays there.

He shouldn't be covering the Flat too much, but they've dropped him there several times and he's been taken advantage of terribly a few times.

His typically poor Pass Rush is next level bad. He's 59 of 60 qualifying Edge Rushers in pretty much every consequential advanced metric; 6.2 % Win Rate with only 21 Pressures in 373 Snaps (Maxx Crosby is 26.9 % and 76 by comparison)?

Oof.

[Dread]

JPP has become a weak link for this defense. His lack of pass rush used to be overlooked b/c he was always a great run defender setting the edge.

But recently he's getting completed washed too often. In that last drive vs Indy where they ran the ball down the field and the opening drive vs the Falcons when they did the same, in both instances the majority of the big runs have been right at JPP.

Something to monitor b/c if fans see it, you bet the opposing teams do also.

And, by extension, our own coaches see it too. So, wtf?

The coaches believe in JPP, but as they say, 'the eye in the sky don't lie'.

I personally think the Bucs need to severely limit JPP's reps if not put him on IR to rest for a few games. Bring him back for the last 2 weeks of the season and re-evaluate.

JPP is a war daddy who you want on your side in a big game. Suh is that kind of player also. IIRC JPP has an 8-0 playoff record. Suh is 6-1 in his last 7 playoff games and Fournette is also 6-1.

Coincidently both Suh's loss and Fournette's loss was to the Tom Brady led Patriots.

Getting back to JPP. I'd love to see him on the field in January, but he hasn't been good this season and it's getting worse. It's time to let JTS, Nelson, and Gill share the burden some.

[Buc2]

And, by extension, our own coaches see it too. So, wtf?

The coaches believe in JPP, but as they say, 'the eye in the sky don't lie'.

I personally think the Bucs need to severely limit JPP's reps if not put him on IR to rest for a few games. Bring him back for the last 2 weeks of the season and re-evaluate.

JPP is a war daddy who you want on your side in a big game. Suh is that kind of player also. IIRC JPP has an 8-0 playoff record. Suh is 6-1 in his last 7 playoff games and Fournette is also 6-1.

Coincidently both Suh's loss and Fournette's loss was to the Tom Brady led Patriots.

Getting back to JPP. I'd love to see him on the field in January, but he hasn't been good this season and it's getting worse. It's time to let JTS, Nelson, and Gill share the burden some.

I don't care if the coaches believe in him or not. They need to get over it and move on. Don't get me wrong. I love what JPP did for us when he was healthy. But that's not the case today.

[King Bootz]

Tryon gets washed out too much against the run. I understand why they still rely on JPP right now. Anthony Nelson does well against the run though.

[Dread]

Tryon gets washed out too much against the run. I understand why they still reply on JPP right now. Anthony Nelson does well against the run though.

This is true, Tryon hasn't been much of an upgrade vs the run compared to JPP.

Nelson is our best run defender at the position but gives us the least amount of juice in the pass rush.

Either way, JPP needs to rest for a few weeks imo. Build the depth and hope the rest allows JPP to be better come January b/c his level of performance is getting worse each game it seems like.

[PanhandleBuc]

I don’t get all the clamoring for more JTS. Misses tackles, is out of his gap, doesn’t play with a lot of discipline.

Definitely things that are all correctable for a very young player. But to say having him in there is a huge upgrade is far-fetched.

JPP has been god awful this year, he is in there for energy and leadership. Other players on defense always bring up how he brings a spark and an energy that is contagious.

Same can be said for Suh. His stats haven’t always been good but his toughness and leadership is what helped us win a Super Bowl.

[Dread]

I don’t get all the clamoring for more JTS. Misses tackles, is out of his gap, doesn’t play with a lot of discipline.

Definitely things that are all correctable for a very young player. But to say having him in there is a huge upgrade is far-fetched.

JPP has been god awful this year, he is in there for energy and leadership. Other players on defense always bring up how he brings a spark and an energy that is contagious.

Same can be said for Suh. His stats haven’t always been good but his toughness and leadership is what helped us win a Super Bowl.

The difference between Suh and JPP this year is that Suh is a still a productive player.