Welcome Baker Mayfield

[CannonFire]

While playing within the scheme can be conflated with a negative perception, that timing and rhythm in the passing game tends to produce excellent results with sound execution.

Baker Mayfield’s transition in Tampa Bay is a prime example, as his time to throw has decreased over the past two seasons compared to his previous three, resulting in increased production. This past season, Mayfield recorded 335 attempts in under 2.5 seconds — more than in any season he played outside of Tampa. He posted an 85.8% adjusted completion percentage and 29 touchdowns on such plays in 2024, both of which led the NFL.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-top-quarte ... throw-2024

It's funny, I'm told Derek Carr stunk, yet he was 6th with less than 2.5 seconds and 3rd with more. Weird, huh?

Something else to take note of... I heard on the fantasy football channel today that Mayfield ranked 35th out of 39 qualifying QB's on "air yards". It makes sense that his time to throw decreased because they're apparently throwing shorter passes.

[CannonFire]

Although I do not take the Pewter Report seriously, I found it to be an interesting read.


https://www.pewterreport.com/bucs-story ... ield-2025/

“The more likely path is that the two sides revisit an extension in 2026.”


By the year 2025, he will surpass Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback in Bucs history

Mayfield needs 6100 yards, 39 TD's, 4 Int's, and 1 Super Bowl to pass or equal Brady. I'll take the under in all 4... meaning, he'll throw less than 6100 yards and 39 TDs... he'll throw more than 4 Int's and will NOT win a Super Bowl.

[Doctor]

Color me shocked.

[Phantom]

Although I do not take the Pewter Report seriously, I found it to be an interesting read.


https://www.pewterreport.com/bucs-story ... ield-2025/

“The more likely path is that the two sides revisit an extension in 2026.”


By the year 2025, he will surpass Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback in Bucs history

Mayfield needs 6100 yards, 39 TD's, 4 Int's, and 1 Super Bowl to pass or equal Brady. I'll take the under in all 4... meaning, he'll throw less than 6100 yards and 39 TDs... he'll throw more than 4 Int's and will NOT win a Super Bowl.

C‘’mon Cannon! Less than 39 touchdowns?! I predict more than that

[Bootz]

Mayfield needs 6100 yards, 39 TD's, 4 Int's, and 1 Super Bowl to pass or equal Brady. I'll take the under in all 4... meaning, he'll throw less than 6100 yards and 39 TDs... he'll throw more than 4 Int's and will NOT win a Super Bowl.

C‘’mon Cannon! Less than 39 touchdowns?! I predict more than that

It’s unlikely he throws that many TDs. Last season only 3 of 32 QBs threw that many. I’m 2023, 0 threw that many.

Baker had never thrown 30 TDs prior to 2024. It’s not impossible that he somehow hits 40 again, but it’s highly unlikely.

[Phantom]

Color me shocked.

I know right?!

[Grahamburn]

I’d prefer he threw fewer. Means we’re probably leading more often. Defense is playing better. Running game is better. Etc.

[CannonFire]

Mayfield needs 6100 yards, 39 TD's, 4 Int's, and 1 Super Bowl to pass or equal Brady. I'll take the under in all 4... meaning, he'll throw less than 6100 yards and 39 TDs... he'll throw more than 4 Int's and will NOT win a Super Bowl.

C‘’mon Cannon! Less than 39 touchdowns?! I predict more than that

You're set to make a ton of money then. DraftKings has Mayfield at 28.5 TD's. My guess is that if you adjust the number to 39.5, you'll get like +2500 odds. I hope you win!

[CannonFire]

Color me shocked.

Yeah, like you wouldn't expect the same.

[acmillis]

I’d prefer he threw fewer. Means we’re probably leading more often. Defense is playing better. Running game is better. Etc.

I'd love to see that data extracted to see if it is true. I'm nit-picking one season, but Brady in our best W/L rTecordh season while he was here threw 43 TDs and we were CRUSHING teams...and still throwing. That's the most TDs/season he had in TB.

[Phantom]

C‘’mon Cannon! Less than 39 touchdowns?! I predict more than that

You're set to make a ton of money then. DraftKings has Mayfield at 28.5 TD's. My guess is that if you adjust the number to 39.5, you'll get like +2500 odds. I hope you win!

So, you follow whatever DraftKings, betMGM tells you? Got it.


I’ve won a lot of money from Hard Rock Bet anyway

[Phantom]

I’d prefer he threw fewer. Means we’re probably leading more often. Defense is playing better. Running game is better. Etc.

We’ll see how Josh Grizzard runs the offense.

[Grahamburn]

I’d prefer he threw fewer. Means we’re probably leading more often. Defense is playing better. Running game is better. Etc.

I'd love to see that data extracted to see if it is true. I'm nit-picking one season, but Brady in our best W/L rTecordh season while he was here threw 43 TDs and we were CRUSHING teams...and still throwing. That's the most TDs/season he had in TB.

I feel like that’s a Brady/Arians situation. We couldn’t be stopped and we knew Brady wouldn’t turn it over or take bad sacks.

I’d expect with Bowles/Baker we’d lean more on defense and run game to close teams out.

Majority of Baker’s INTs were first half.

[Bootz]

I’d prefer he threw fewer. Means we’re probably leading more often. Defense is playing better. Running game is better. Etc.

I'd love to see that data extracted to see if it is true. I'm nit-picking one season, but Brady in our best W/L rTecordh season while he was here threw 43 TDs and we were CRUSHING teams...and still throwing. That's the most TDs/season he had in TB.

Ironically, Baker was a little more efficient than Brady was. Brady threw 731 pass attempts, compared to Baker throwing just 571. They were only off by 2 TDs. We also didn't run the ball much during the Arians/Brady years either. That plays a roll as well.

[Phantom]

I'd love to see that data extracted to see if it is true. I'm nit-picking one season, but Brady in our best W/L rTecordh season while he was here threw 43 TDs and we were CRUSHING teams...and still throwing. That's the most TDs/season he had in TB.

I feel like that’s a Brady/Arians situation. We couldn’t be stopped and we knew Brady wouldn’t turn it over or take bad sacks.

I’d expect with Bowles/Baker we’d lean more on defense and run game to close teams out.

Majority of Baker’s INTs were first half.

We better hope the running game performs as good as last year. Since most teams will prepare for Irving and White, if it doesn’t work, Baker will throw more.

And with Wirfs out for the first few games, the bet is off for the running game.

[Sooner06]

C‘’mon Cannon! Less than 39 touchdowns?! I predict more than that

It’s unlikely he throws that many TDs. Last season only 3 of 32 QBs threw that many. I’m 2023, 0 threw that many.

Baker had never thrown 30 TDs prior to 2024. It’s not impossible that he somehow hits 40 again, but it’s highly unlikely.

40TDs/season is very rare air. Only 12 QBs have ever crossed that rubicon.

Marino
Manning
Brady
Brees
Rodgers
Stafford
Luck
Wilson
Mahomes
L. Jackson
Burrow
Mayfield

The fact that Baker is even on a list that puts him in the company of nearly all HoFers is surreal. In fact, the only guy on the list that probably won't make the HoF is Andrew Luck. Burrow could still earn a gold jacket since he's still active, obviously.

and when you throw in the '70% completion rate' parameter, well, there's only four QBs in NFL history on that list.

Drew Brees (2011): 71.2%

Aaron Rodgers (2020): 70.7%

Joe Burrow (2024): 70.6%

Baker Mayfield (2024): 71.4%.

[Snake]

It’s good company, but it’s not as impressive when half of that list is still currently playing lol.

[Sooner06]

It’s good company, but it’s not as impressive when half of that list is still currently playing lol.

"good company"? It's basically a list of the best QBs to ever play, plus Luck, Burrow and Baker.

[Snake]

Again, no one is arguing that Baker was not productive. But the current quarterback milieu has never been better.

[Buc2]

It’s okay. It’s just Baker. So, you gotta put in those “buts.” He’d be considered a top tier QB “but” his name is Baker and he plays for Tampa so…reasons.

[Grahamburn]

Extra game and everything favors the passing game.

Marino was incredible.

[CannonFire]

You're set to make a ton of money then. DraftKings has Mayfield at 28.5 TD's. My guess is that if you adjust the number to 39.5, you'll get like +2500 odds. I hope you win!

So, you follow whatever DraftKings, betMGM tells you? Got it.

I’ve won a lot of money from Hard Rock Bet anyway

LOL, I just looked it up for your benefit. Just trying to help you make a fortune

[CannonFire]

It’s okay. It’s just Baker. So, you gotta put in those “buts.” He’d be considered a top tier QB “but” his name is Baker and he plays for Tampa so…reasons.

As if the reverse isn't happening either.

[Grahamburn]

It’s okay. It’s just Baker. So, you gotta put in those “buts.” He’d be considered a top tier QB “but” his name is Baker and he plays for Tampa so…reasons.

As if the reverse isn't happening either.

You keep posting this.

Bucs’ fans are high on Baker because he has been awesome here. Can you honestly say he hasn't earned high praise from Bucs’ fans for what he’s accomplished in Tampa?

It’s not like we’re propping up Daniel Jones after a 15 TD season.

We were supposed to be tanking in 2023. Baker led us to another divisional title and a playoff win.

Baker leads the NFL in TD passes since he has been a Buc.

His teammates love him. He plays hard. With passion. That’s an awesome thing to have on our team.

Cleveland would give their left nut to have him back.

We should consider ourselves lucky, and I think most smart Bucs’ fans realize it.

[acmillis]

As if the reverse isn't happening either.

You keep posting this.

Bucs’ fans are high on Baker because he has been awesome here. Can you honestly say he hasn't earned high praise from Bucs’ fans for what he’s accomplished in Tampa?

It’s not like we’re propping up Daniel Jones after a 15 TD season.

We were supposed to be tanking in 2023. Baker led us to another divisional title and a playoff win.

Baker leads the NFL in TD passes since he has been a Buc.

His teammates love him. He plays hard. With passion. That’s an awesome thing to have on our team.

Cleveland would give their left nut to have him back.

We should consider ourselves lucky, and I think most smart Bucs’ fans realize it.

Until he is the reason we win meaningful games (aka playoffs), he’ll always have his doubters (me). He’ll, even Peyton with his MVPs was second fiddle until he won a SB. People are still questioning Lamar with his two MVPs. Eli Manning is debatably a HOF qb solely bc he won two SB. In reality, he’s shouldn’t even be in the Hall of Really Good. If you don’t win when it matters, you’re a bum. If you do win when it matters, a mediocre career gets elevated. That’s the way it works.

[Central_Buc]

I feel like that’s a Brady/Arians situation. We couldn’t be stopped and we knew Brady wouldn’t turn it over or take bad sacks.

I’d expect with Bowles/Baker we’d lean more on defense and run game to close teams out.

Majority of Baker’s INTs were first half.

We better hope the running game performs as good as last year. Since most teams will prepare for Irving and White, if it doesn’t work, Baker will throw more.

And with Wirfs out for the first few games, the bet is off for the running game.

We have 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game last year so I'm sure we can at least expect serviceable.

We may have to rely on the run game a little more to protect Baker until Wirfs comes back. Using all 3 backs to keep em all fresh.

How often we open the playbook in our passing game will depend how well Heck can play and protect Baker.

Heck is going to get a ton of playing time all summer so I expect him to be ready and in game shape.

[Bootz]

As if the reverse isn't happening either.

You keep posting this.

Bucs’ fans are high on Baker because he has been awesome here. Can you honestly say he hasn't earned high praise from Bucs’ fans for what he’s accomplished in Tampa?

It’s not like we’re propping up Daniel Jones after a 15 TD season.

We were supposed to be tanking in 2023. Baker led us to another divisional title and a playoff win.

Baker leads the NFL in TD passes since he has been a Buc.

His teammates love him. He plays hard. With passion. That’s an awesome thing to have on our team.

Cleveland would give their left nut to have him back.

We should consider ourselves lucky, and I think most smart Bucs’ fans realize it.

The problem is A. Cannon is right. And B. Other than pretty stats, what has he accomplished here?

Every argument made for Baker almost exclusively revolves around stats. That's not a great judge for QB play. Why do I care what your numbers are if you're barely winning games? 19-15 and a 1-2 playoff record is pretty average. Not terrible by any stretch, but not great.

Also, Cannon is right. Fans here do the same for other QBs. I asked someone a few weeks ago, mightve been you, if they'd take Jared Goff over Baker since Goff has been better than Baker across the board. Stats, wins, everything. They responded no, and the reason was they just had a feeling. It's hard to take that seriously when you make such definitive arguments in Bakers favor and then when the same is presented for other QBs it changes.

Baker has been good here. But some take it way out to left field. All of these graphics and such about him being better than Mahomes? I know people are only saying that because they know it'll never be proven. But come on. Keep things in perspective and there wouldn't be so much push back from logical posters.

[Bootz]

We better hope the running game performs as good as last year. Since most teams will prepare for Irving and White, if it doesn’t work, Baker will throw more.

And with Wirfs out for the first few games, the bet is off for the running game.

We have 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game last year so I'm sure we can at least expect serviceable.

We may have to rely on the run game a little more to protect Baker until Wirfs comes back. Using all 3 backs to keep em all fresh.

How often we open the playbook in our passing game will depend how well Heck can play and protect Baker.

Heck is going to get a ton of playing time all summer so I expect him to be ready and in game shape.

No, we do not. Bredeson & Barton were terrible run blocking last year. We hardly, if ever ran in their gaps and most of our play losses came from that side. Mauch wasn't much better than those 2, but I would say he was serviceable. But let's not make things up and white knight these guys.

Everyone pretty much knows Bucky Irving was the reason for the run game. He did well making defenders miss, breaking tackles, and getting more out of plays than he should have.

Heck was abysmal last year in all aspects. I dont care how good of shape he's in. He's a bad football player and 3 weeks of training camp isn't going to change that.

[CannonFire]

As if the reverse isn't happening either.

You keep posting this.

Bucs’ fans are high on Baker because he has been awesome here. Can you honestly say he hasn't earned high praise from Bucs’ fans for what he’s accomplished in Tampa?

It’s not like we’re propping up Daniel Jones after a 15 TD season.

We were supposed to be tanking in 2023. Baker led us to another divisional title and a playoff win.

Baker leads the NFL in TD passes since he has been a Buc.

His teammates love him. He plays hard. With passion. That’s an awesome thing to have on our team.

Cleveland would give their left nut to have him back.

We should consider ourselves lucky, and I think most smart Bucs’ fans realize it.

I keep posting it, because it's true. Like I said, you'll always prop up our guy and poo poo others, because, as @Buc2 said, "reasons". You, and others like you, find reasons why other guys stink and Mayfield is great, even though their history's are similar. It's because you're bias and refuse to be objective.

Like I said before, if after the 2026, the Bucs feel they can't (or for whatever reason), don't bring back Mayfield and sign someone like Daniel Jones, you'll unconditionally love Jones if he does what Mayfield had done. Anything you've said about him, you'll justify by saying he had bad coaching, bad supporting cast, blah, blah, blah and that he always had thd ability, blah, blah, blah... shoveling the same crap you are now.

I know you're going to latch on to Jones, but let me just tell you, I'm only using him as an example and not saying he's great. I think he's got the ability to be an pretty decent QB if he has a good supporting cast.

Cleveland would want Mayfield back, because of the shit show they've become. But, Mayfield on a team with no receiving corp, a hobbled RB, and a crappy OLine, would do exactly what? Win 3 games? Just like last year? No wait, he's great, they'll win 5.

[Central_Buc]

We have 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game last year so I'm sure we can at least expect serviceable.

We may have to rely on the run game a little more to protect Baker until Wirfs comes back. Using all 3 backs to keep em all fresh.

How often we open the playbook in our passing game will depend how well Heck can play and protect Baker.

Heck is going to get a ton of playing time all summer so I expect him to be ready and in game shape.

No, we do not. Bredeson & Barton were terrible run blocking last year. We hardly, if ever ran in their gaps and most of our play losses came from that side. Mauch wasn't much better than those 2, but I would say he was serviceable. But let's not make things up and white knight these guys.

Everyone pretty much knows Bucky Irving was the reason for the run game. He did well making defenders miss, breaking tackles, and getting more out of plays than he should have.

Heck was abysmal last year in all aspects. I dont care how good of shape he's in. He's a bad football player and 3 weeks of training camp isn't going to change that.

On that point fair enough. I still think you're a little hard on thr rookies though, we should expect some improvement with Barton.

[Buc2]

But, Mayfield on a team with no receiving corp, a hobbled RB, and a crappy OLine, would do exactly what? Win 3 games?

You just described all but, maybe, about 3 QBs in NFL history.

[Bootz]

No, we do not. Bredeson & Barton were terrible run blocking last year. We hardly, if ever ran in their gaps and most of our play losses came from that side. Mauch wasn't much better than those 2, but I would say he was serviceable. But let's not make things up and white knight these guys.

Everyone pretty much knows Bucky Irving was the reason for the run game. He did well making defenders miss, breaking tackles, and getting more out of plays than he should have.

Heck was abysmal last year in all aspects. I dont care how good of shape he's in. He's a bad football player and 3 weeks of training camp isn't going to change that.

On that point fair enough. I still think you're a little hard on thr rookies though, we should expect some improvement with Barton.

That's not what you said and that wasn't what I was disputing. You said we had 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game, which means 2024, and that simply was not true. Had you said "Barton hopefully gets better in the run game" then my response would've been different.

[Central_Buc]

On that point fair enough. I still think you're a little hard on thr rookies though, we should expect some improvement with Barton.

That's not what you said and that wasn't what I was disputing. You said we had 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game, which means 2024, and that simply was not true. Had you said "Barton hopefully gets better in the run game" then my response would've been different.

If we lined up a bunch of cones on the OL in a game you think Bucky would still get 100 yards? Or does having our Oline in there benefit Bucky in that same game?

I'm joking.

I dont dispute your point about Bucky doing certain things by himself but I'm also not completely in low confidence about our Oline despite some weaknesses. IIRC Bredeson wasn't even supposed to start last year, it was supposedto go to Opeta(sp?) Before he got hurt.

But like we talked about earlier, maybe Klien is good enough this summer to beat out Bredeson.

[Bootz]

That's not what you said and that wasn't what I was disputing. You said we had 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game, which means 2024, and that simply was not true. Had you said "Barton hopefully gets better in the run game" then my response would've been different.

If we lined up a bunch of cones on the OL in a game you think Bucky would still get 100 yards? Or does having our Oline in there benefit Bucky in that same game?

I'm joking.

I dont dispute your point about Bucky doing certain things by himself but I'm also not completely in low confidence about our Oline despite some weaknesses. IIRC Bredeson wasn't even supposed to start last year, it was supposedto go to Opeta(sp?) Before he got hurt.

But like we talked about earlier, maybe Klien is good enough this summer to beat out Bredeson.

You're moving your goal post here at will. So let me remind you of what I originally disputed because you're adding on as we go.

We have 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game last year

Last year. As in 2024. Barton did not do a fine job in the run game last year. Bredeson did not do a fine job in the run game last year. That could change. But it was not there last year.

Opeta and Bredeson were both competing for the LG spot and Opeta got hurt. So it went to Bredeson by default because we didn't have any other options.

Klein isn't beating out Bredeson and we just gave him $12mil guaranteed. Thats gonna be a business decision.

[Central_Buc]

If we lined up a bunch of cones on the OL in a game you think Bucky would still get 100 yards? Or does having our Oline in there benefit Bucky in that same game?

I'm joking.

I dont dispute your point about Bucky doing certain things by himself but I'm also not completely in low confidence about our Oline despite some weaknesses. IIRC Bredeson wasn't even supposed to start last year, it was supposedto go to Opeta(sp?) Before he got hurt.

But like we talked about earlier, maybe Klien is good enough this summer to beat out Bredeson.

You're moving your goal post here at will. So let me remind you of what I originally disputed because you're adding on as we go.

We have 4 other OL that did a fine job in the run game last year

Last year. As in 2024. Barton did not do a fine job in the run game last year. Bredeson did not do a fine job in the run game last year. That could change. But it was not there last year.

Opeta and Bredeson were both competing for the LG spot and Opeta got hurt. So it went to Bredeson by default because we didn't have any other options.

Klein isn't beating out Bredeson and we just gave him $12mil guaranteed. Thats gonna be a business decision.

Sorry I'm not meaning to move goal post I meant them as a collective unit.

The year prior they were ranked 32 in the run game and then last year it massively improved to one of the top running teams. I'm sure Bucky was a large reason but I also think they grew a little and perhaps running a different scheme with Coen was the reason too.

Also, I think you could take comfort in that this will be the first time in 3 plus years we are not starting a rookie somewhere within the line.